Gulf Of Mexico SAT...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

Gulf Of Mexico SAT...

#1 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:31 pm

ok for all of you smart ladies and gents...and others.. :lol: take a look at the loop of the VIS in the gulf...yesterday, the clouds along the entire gulf except for the xtreme west..(TX coast), were moving from east to west...today they look diffrent...this will be important once she crosses the YUC.. right??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ohiostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1582
Age: 40
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 2:51 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
Contact:
Contact ohiostorm

#2 Postby ohiostorm » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:35 pm

Yeah I believe so too. Anything moving west to east could cause sheer for Emily or cause her to shift more South of more North. Something we need to watch closely.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#3 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:41 pm

I'll be an "other" :lol:

Watch the WV loop also, you'll get a better idea of what's going on:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

There's a ULL parked over South Central Texas, and another moving from east to west near Tampa Bay. There also appears to be a third ULL
over the Yucatan right now, moving West as well. What a mess!

What these ULL's do will play a large role in Emily's future. Lower level
clouds are still moving east to weat, thanks to the ridge. In the upper levels, things get interesting. To answer your question, YES - this will be very important for all of Emily's future.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#4 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:44 pm

The key IMO is after the Yucatan... and how far north she is and which way she is moving.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#5 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:45 pm

hey, thanks for the WV...yeah...the low clouds due until the last couple of frames...you can clearly see in the western gulf, the clouds begin to turn back to the NW...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#6 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:30 pm

I saw that as well. Could foretell a slight hook north.


Right now it looks possible that Emily will traverse less land than previously thought.

The ULL over Florida could be a seam in the ridge...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#7 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:33 pm

Sanibel wrote:I saw that as well. Could foretell a slight hook north.


Right now it looks possible that Emily will traverse less land than previously thought.

The ULL over Florida could be a seam in the ridge...


You may be onto something here Sanibel - the Florida ULL has added
a little southward component to its weatward movement.

Now it's a race, if the ULL gets "there" first, then that may indeed create
a seam for Emily to gain latitude.
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#8 Postby dwg71 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:34 pm

Em is moving right on NHC path, the ridge is holding in place just fine.

Dont expect much deviation in NHC track, there hasnt been one and there wont be one. They have had no problems with her course. Trust the NHC, look at the cone, if your in it, make preps, if your just out - be prepared to make preps, if youre in galveston - get your board out its going to be nice surf on tues.
Last edited by dwg71 on Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Galvestongirl
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 288
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 8:13 am

#9 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:35 pm

Does this mean that this area needs to be more concerned now, I was banking on this going to mexico, but, if I am thinking right, It may go more towards corpus?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#10 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:36 pm

Too early to say - we have ot let this play out for some time before
we see if the ULL actually has an affect on Emily.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Galvestongirl
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 288
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 8:13 am

#11 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:37 pm

gosh I wish I knew more about how the weather works together.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#12 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:38 pm

NEVER bank on anything with tropical cyclones....very good points all...yes, the NHC has been doing a pretty good job....BUT, there are many uncertanties ahead...just look at the 5am, and 11am discussions...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#13 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:19 pm

Clearly a weakness over Texas right now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#14 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:24 pm

Brent wrote:The key IMO is after the Yucatan... and how far north she is and which way she is moving.


Anyone else noticing a NW jog.. could this be a sign
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mvtrucking
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 698
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 am
Location: Monroe,La

#15 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:29 pm

hicksta wrote:
Brent wrote:The key IMO is after the Yucatan... and how far north she is and which way she is moving.


Anyone else noticing a NW jog.. could this be a sign


Em looks dead on track IMO.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#16 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:30 pm

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML


go east visabal floater.. last few frames =NW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#17 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:31 pm

hicksta wrote:
Brent wrote:The key IMO is after the Yucatan... and how far north she is and which way she is moving.


Anyone else noticing a NW jog.. could this be a sign


Yes, i've been noticing. And so has the NHC according to the discussion.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#18 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:38 pm

il have to read that just got back from work. SO HUMID lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#19 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:00 pm

Call me crazy but the NW/N cloud pattern in the Gulf now extends to the Central Gulf. :eek:

Is the weakness becoming more pronounced?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#20 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:02 pm

You better be crazy
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, jhpigott, MetroMike, Sciencerocks and 316 guests