Landfall Poll

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply

Whats your prediction?

Upper TX Coast Freeport to TX/LA Line
9
10%
Mid TX coast Corpus to Freeport
4
5%
Lower TX Coast Brownsville to Corpus
37
42%
Upper MEX coast
36
41%
Further South of upper mex coast
2
2%
 
Total votes: 88
Message
Author
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

Landfall Poll

#1 Postby dwg71 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:53 pm

Where will it make permanent land fall?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
carve
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 224
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2005 5:49 pm
Location: east central ohio

Emily

#2 Postby carve » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:57 pm

Is she moving a little more north? or is it just a wobble..or could it actually be turning more north..not a prof..just a weather nut
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#3 Postby stormie_skies » Sat Jul 16, 2005 3:00 pm

I think its waaaaay too early to decide on a landfall point....there are several wild card factors people here have mentioned: 3 ULL's bouncing around in the Gulf, the trough expected to weaken the ridge over E Texas, the incredible strength of Em and whether or not that will change her path....

...I'll save my vote for once she's past the Yucatan.... :P
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#4 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 3:01 pm

I wont call a landfall just yet, but a zone from tampico to corpus looks most likely. The bullseye right now looks to be SOuth Padre and Brownsville.
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#5 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Jul 16, 2005 3:13 pm

I'm sticking with 50-100 miles south of KBRO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#6 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:07 pm

I think she will trend more north, central Texas strike.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#7 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:11 pm

How are y'all saying Texas/Louisiana? Four votes for that... I mean, I can wishcast too, if I really want. I voted Mexican coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#8 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:15 pm

Swimdude wrote:How are y'all saying Texas/Louisiana? Four votes for that... I mean, I can wishcast too, if I really want. I voted Mexican coast.


Wishcast? I live in Virginia. Look at visible loop, trending much more northerly track. Even if it is some sort of wobble, it will effect ultimate track.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#9 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:17 pm

Northern Mexico... about 60 miles south of Brownsville.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:
Contact wxmann_91

#10 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:59 pm

I think Mex/US border, but I voted upper MEX coast since the lower TX coast according to the poll was only between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. :D
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#11 Postby dwg71 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:40 pm

interesting, the majority of teh people think the NHC and the models will be wrong... time will tell.
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#12 Postby dwg71 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:14 pm

for those of you still calling for upper tx coast landfall, nhc 72 hour landfall would have to be over 400 miles off..

Not impossible, but very, very, very, unlikely..
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#13 Postby dwg71 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:50 pm

Take time to reflect on your vote, at the time this poll was posted NHC was calling for landfall very close to where they have it now.

Bottom line, trust the NHC with thier 72 hour cone on strong systems.

I cannot believe how many voted for SE/TX...
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#14 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:52 pm

dwg71 wrote:Take time to reflect on your vote, at the time this poll was posted NHC was calling for landfall very close to where they have it now.

Bottom line, trust the NHC with thier 72 hour cone on strong systems.

I cannot believe how many voted for SE/TX...

I'll be honest, I know several were in the "TX" camp or at least though that TX should be watching it, but I never knew more people thought eventual landfall would be there!

Barring a major change in track, landfall will be in northern Mexico. It won't be far from Southern TX, but its still Mexico and still within the "cone".
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CentralFlGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 573
Joined: Mon May 16, 2005 9:32 pm
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL

#15 Postby CentralFlGal » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:20 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:I think Mex/US border, but I voted upper MEX coast since the lower TX coast according to the poll was only between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. :D


Dittos
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#16 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:21 pm

I stick by what I said 2 days ago... :wink:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5937
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#17 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:29 pm

Near the Rio Grande. As a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3.....MGC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#18 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:49 pm

I voted for the Upper Mexican Coast, It appears that I tied the poll at 32 votes for each of the highest poll choices. 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#19 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:53 pm

Just south of Brownsville....maybe 20 miles.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#20 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:30 pm

i voted upper mx coast....she will be a cat 1 ....cat 2 looks unlikely to me right now...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 87 guests