If I were in western Cuba

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Galvestongirl
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 288
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 8:13 am

#41 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:50 pm

Mello1 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Well the latest loop continues the trend, hmmmmmmmmm.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Hmmm is right. Looks more than to be just a wobble. Unless I totally don't get this or something....


Its hard to say if it is a wobble or trend right now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#42 Postby stormie_skies » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:50 pm

Raebie wrote:Shimmying. It's shimmying towards Cuba.

:D


:A:
0 likes   
Top
Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

#43 Postby Raebie » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:51 pm

hicksta wrote:Very intresting. How long till next loop.


30 minutes?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:51 pm

Better wait for 6 more frames to see a trend one way or another.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#45 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

What most are doing is probably one image at a time. Speed the rate up and you will see it is still going at 290.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Galvestongirl
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 288
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 8:13 am

#46 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

shimmy...lol, that is cute.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#47 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Better wait for 6 more frames to see a trend one way or another.


Very true but could this be hinting a Nw turn. Please Correct if im wrong
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#48 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Better wait for 6 more frames to see a trend one way or another.


yeah, we need to wait a bit to see if it is a trend or not...with that said, even if its not, when it returns to its original WNW then it will still most likely be north of the fcst points...stay tuned
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#49 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:53 pm

like cyclone said, WAIT!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mvtrucking
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 698
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 am
Location: Monroe,La

#50 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:54 pm

stormie_skies wrote:
Raebie wrote:
stormie_skies wrote:I dunno.....IMHO she looks like shes gonna split the difference between Cancun and Cozumel, only skirting across the tip of the peninsula, unless her current track takes on a more westerly component very, very soon. The NHC's 5 pm track has her crossing the full peninsula and exiting somewhere in the neighborhood of Celestun.... I don't think thats an insignificant difference in direction, not to mention contact with land.

But God only knows Ive been wrong before... :lol:


Let's be wrong together (because I agree)!


Im so glad to see Im not the only one drawing that line!!! :D


Well after the last couple of frames (2045,2115) I am starting to see this myself.What are we calling it? Lift? :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Galvestongirl
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 288
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 8:13 am

#51 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:54 pm

lol, some callin it a lift, some are callin it a shimmy
0 likes   
Top
Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

#52 Postby Raebie » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:54 pm

No, it's a definite shimmy.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#53 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Better wait for 6 more frames to see a trend one way or another.


I agree 100%. If it continues then I guess the NHC will comment on it in it's next full advisory.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#54 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:56 pm

If it continues stormy. we might need to get worried agian
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#55 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:56 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:What most are doing is probably one image at a time. Speed the rate up and you will see it is still going at 290.


I don't think that's the case.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#56 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:58 pm

hicksta wrote:If it continues stormy. we might need to get worried agian


If I were anywhere along the lower or middle Texas coastline I'd be worried.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#57 Postby stormie_skies » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:59 pm

hicksta wrote:If it continues stormy. we might need to get worried agian


Oh, I'm not takin my eye off this ol' girl....shes already pulled enough tricks out of her hat... :lol: And honestly, I don't know how good the models are at seeing the strength of the ridge & the coming trough, or at timing each of those elements...
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#58 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:00 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:What most are doing is probably one image at a time. Speed the rate up and you will see it is still going at 290.


I don't think that's the case.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


That's the problem IMO....

I use to use the floater as well, until AFM and others directed me to this site..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#59 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:00 pm

Mother Nature > Computers.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#60 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:03 pm

I think by tomorrow we will see a slightly more shift to the right with the NHC forecast map
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: riapal and 191 guests