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Valkhorn
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#81 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:53 pm

Um.... I don't think this is all the data...

Why is everyone so quick to pull the trigger? We still haven't even gotten an eye dropsonde yet, and they haven't sampled all quadrants.
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#82 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:54 pm

Valkhorn wrote:Um.... I don't think this is all the data...

Why is everyone so quick to pull the trigger? We still haven't even gotten an eye dropsonde yet, and they haven't sampled all quadrants.


LOL... I agree. Don't everyone have a hissy fit yet. :roll:
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#83 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:54 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the sat signature has not really improved from earlier
Its been unchanged for the most part. But why listen to recon and satellite analysis if the weenies say Cat 5?
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#84 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:54 pm

Valkhorn wrote:Um.... I don't think this is all the data...

Why is everyone so quick to pull the trigger? We still haven't even gotten an eye dropsonde yet, and they haven't sampled all quadrants.


That was all of the data from the strongest quad.
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#85 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:55 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the sat signature has not really improved from earlier


I agree the storm isn't totally symetrical.
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#86 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:55 pm

the sat signature has not really improved from earlier


Are we looking at the same images?

The eye is clearer, the eye is smaller, the clouds are colder, the convection has increased.
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Derek Ortt

#87 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:57 pm

onviously we are not looking at the same images, not sure the ones you're looking at

1. The storm has lost some symmetry this afternoon.

2. The eye has always been clear today

3. convection has actually slightly warmed, but mainly has been fluctuating throughout the day

4. The outflow will need to become better established to the south for this to really go crazy
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#88 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:58 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 21
Latest Ob Location: 231 mi WSW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 23:48:00Z; 16.8°N 79.7°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 52 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 54 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #02: 23:48:30Z; 16.8°N 79.8°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #03: 23:49:00Z; 16.8°N 79.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 64 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #04: 23:49:30Z; 16.8°N 79.8°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 70 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #05: 23:50:00Z; 16.7°N 79.8°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 75 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #06: 23:50:30Z; 16.7°N 79.8°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 79 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: 23:51:00Z; 16.7°N 79.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 83 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #08: 23:51:30Z; 16.7°N 79.9°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 86 ft; Wind: NW (318°) @ 36 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: 23:52:00Z; 16.6°N 79.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 88 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #10: 23:52:30Z; 16.6°N 79.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: NW (316°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #11: 23:53:00Z; 16.6°N 80°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 94 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #12: 23:53:30Z; 16.6°N 80°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 96 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #13: 23:54:00Z; 16.6°N 80°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 97 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #14: 23:54:30Z; 16.5°N 80°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #15: 23:55:00Z; 16.5°N 80°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 101 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #16: 23:55:30Z; 16.5°N 80.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 104 ft; Wind: NW (316°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #17: 23:56:00Z; 16.5°N 80.1°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 105 ft; Wind: NW (316°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #18: 23:56:30Z; 16.5°N 80.1°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #19: 23:57:00Z; 16.4°N 80.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #20: 23:57:30Z; 16.4°N 80.1°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 110 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
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#89 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:01 pm

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...17.1 N... 79.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 929 mb
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#90 Postby mike18xx » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:01 pm

She's still has Jamaica interfering with east inflow feed, and it's the wrong side of the diurnal clock. Wait until later next morning for a likely maximum.
Last edited by mike18xx on Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#91 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:01 pm

1. The storm has lost some symmetry this afternoon.


I don't see that. Looks more symmetrical to me.

2. The eye has always been clear today


No it hasn't. Earlier there was a bit of high level cirrus swirling about in there in the visible shots. Lately there has been little or none before the sun started setting.

3. convection has actually slightly warmed, but mainly has been fluctuating throughout the day


Its slightly warmed in the last 30 minutes yes, but from about 3 hours ago until then it cooled considerably.

4. The outflow will need to become better established to the south for this to really go crazy


Perfect outflow isn't always needed for a category 5 storm. I remember when Ivan was a category 5 at one or two points last year when it didn't have perfect symmetry or perfect outflow.

We'll know what the pressure says when they find anything.

Also, I wouldn't write off everything until they complete the mission. The winds aren't always the strongest in one point - sometimes they could be to the NW too, and in some cases stronger winds have been found in the SW quad on some systems.
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#92 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:02 pm

wow...929, perhaps the winds haven't responded to that drop?
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#93 Postby Anonymous » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:03 pm

They should soon.
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#94 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:03 pm

Strongest July hurricane in recorded history.
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#95 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:03 pm

jkt21787 wrote:wow...929, perhaps the winds haven't responded to that drop?


Normally wind changes follow pressure changes. Give it time if this trend persists.
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#96 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:04 pm

Actually I should also add the pressure is significantly lower at 929mb. What if the winds catch up?

This thing could still climb up over another 1mph to become a category 5.

Of course if recon found a wind speed that was a little higher everyone would have been "I told you so!"

So it goes with the territory.
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#97 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:07 pm

Bottom line, the hurricane is indeed stronger.
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#98 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:08 pm

They will likely past through the hurricane take a few more measures over the next hour or so. Its still possible.
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#99 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:09 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 22
Latest Ob Location: 219 mi SW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 23:58:00Z; 16.4°N 80.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 110 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #02: 23:58:30Z; 16.4°N 80.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 111 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #03: 23:59:00Z; 16.3°N 80.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #04: 23:59:30Z; 16.3°N 80.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: NW (316°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #05: 00:00:00Z; 16.3°N 80.3°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 114 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #06: 00:00:30Z; 16.3°N 80.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #07: 00:01:00Z; 16.3°N 80.3°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #08: 00:01:30Z; 16.2°N 80.3°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 116 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #09: 00:02:00Z; 16.2°N 80.3°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 117 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 28 mph; Max Wind: 29 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #10: 00:02:30Z; 16.2°N 80.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 118 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 25 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #11: 00:03:00Z; 16.2°N 80.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 23 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #12: 00:03:30Z; 16.2°N 80.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 120 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 25 mph; Max Wind: 28 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #13: 00:04:00Z; 16.1°N 80.4°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 121 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 25 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #14: 00:04:30Z; 16.1°N 80.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 121 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 25 mph; Max Wind: 26 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #15: 00:05:00Z; 16.1°N 80.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 121 ft; Wind: NW (320°) @ 25 mph; Max Wind: 26 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #16: 00:05:30Z; 16.1°N 80.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 123 ft; Wind: NW (324°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 28 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #17: 00:06:00Z; 16.1°N 80.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: NW (320°) @ 23 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #18: 00:06:30Z; 16°N 80.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 24 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #19: 00:07:00Z; 16°N 80.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 23 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #20: 00:07:30Z; 16°N 80.6°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
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mike18xx

#100 Postby mike18xx » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:10 pm

One cat-5 indicator I've been looking for is radial-spoke patterns in the CDO created by high-altitude clear-air exhausting wearing groove channels in the cirrus canopy; I'm finally seeing it as the sun goes down on the visibles. (Dial up the GOES for a quick-see before they obsolecse: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html.)
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