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senorpepr
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#101 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:17 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 06
Time: 23:40:40Z
Latitude: 17.1°N
Longitude: 79.4°W
Location: 182 mi WSW of Kingston, Jamaica
Minimum height at 700 mb 2480 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 86 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 35 mi NE (47°)
Maximum flight level wind: SE (145°) @ 172 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 7 mi NE (55°)
Sea level pressure: 929 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 55°F at 9990 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 73°F at 9987 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 48°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 16 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 23:38:40 Z
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#102 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:18 pm

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 07
Time: 0000Z
Latitude: 17.1°N
Longitude: 79.3°W
Location: 176 mi WSW of Kingston, Jamaica
Surface: 939 mb; Temp: 77°F; Dewpt: 37°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
925mb height: 427 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 41°F; NNW (340°) @ 181 mph
850mb height: 2848 ft; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 45°F; NE (50°) @ 192 mph
EYEWALL 045 SPL 1711N07952W 2345 LST WND 075 AEV 20507 DLM
WND 08100 931728 WL150 34656 148
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#103 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:19 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 09
Time: 0010Z
Latitude: 15.8°N
Longitude: 80.7°W
Location: 217 mi NE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: NW (310°) @ 22 mph
Temperature: 50°F
Dewpoint: 43°F
Weather: Broken Skies
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: NW (320°) @ 17 mph
Remarks: None
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#104 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:19 pm

Man this is as close to cat 5 as you can get.
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#105 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:19 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 23
Latest Ob Location: 238 mi SW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 00:08:00Z; 16°N 80.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #02: 00:08:30Z; 15.9°N 80.6°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #03: 00:09:00Z; 15.9°N 80.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #04: 00:09:30Z; 15.9°N 80.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #05: 00:10:00Z; 15.9°N 80.7°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #06: 00:10:30Z; 15.9°N 80.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: 00:11:00Z; 15.8°N 80.7°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 22 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: 00:11:30Z; 15.8°N 80.7°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #09: 00:12:00Z; 15.8°N 80.7°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 16 mph; Max Wind: 17 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #10: 00:12:30Z; 15.8°N 80.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: WNW (290°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #11: 00:13:00Z; 15.8°N 80.7°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: WNW (290°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #12: 00:13:30Z; 15.8°N 80.6°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: WNW (289°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #13: 00:14:00Z; 15.8°N 80.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: WNW (287°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #14: 00:14:30Z; 15.8°N 80.6°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: WNW (287°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #15: 00:15:00Z; 15.8°N 80.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: WNW (283°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #16: 00:15:30Z; 15.8°N 80.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (280°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #17: 00:16:00Z; 15.8°N 80.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (278°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #18: 00:16:30Z; 15.8°N 80.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (274°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #19: 00:17:00Z; 15.8°N 80.4°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (263°) @ 17 mph; Max Wind: 17 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #20: 00:17:30Z; 15.8°N 80.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (260°) @ 17 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
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#106 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:20 pm

senorpepr wrote:Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 07
Time: 0000Z
Latitude: 17.1°N
Longitude: 79.3°W
Location: 176 mi WSW of Kingston, Jamaica
Surface: 939 mb; Temp: 77°F; Dewpt: 37°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
925mb height: 427 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 41°F; NNW (340°) @ 181 mph
850mb height: 2848 ft; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 45°F; NE (50°) @ 192 mph
EYEWALL 045 SPL 1711N07952W 2345 LST WND 075 AEV 20507 DLM
WND 08100 931728 WL150 34656 148



What is a CAT 5 if this isn't one??
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#107 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:20 pm

850mb height: 2848 ft; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 45°F; NE (50°) @ 192 mph


Now thats something you don't normally see every day. :eek:
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#108 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:20 pm

The 925 wind reduced is 163MPH.
The 850 wind reduced is 153MPH.

Are those 1 minute winds?
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#109 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:21 pm

...recon has turned back east heading for their inbound SE leg...

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 08
Time: 0000Z
Latitude: 17.1°N
Longitude: 79.4°W
Location: 182 mi WSW of Kingston, Jamaica
Surface: 929 mb; Temp: 80°F; Dewpt: 54°F; S (180°) @ 28 mph
925mb height: 121 ft; Temp: 79°F; Dewpt: 54°F; S (180°) @ 29 mph
850mb height: 2592 ft; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 136°F; SSW (200°) @ 24 mph
700mb height: 11453 ft; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 138°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
EYE SPL 1710N07941W 2344 MBL WND 19026 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20
521 929762 WL150 18524 075
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#110 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:26 pm

Told ya its not over until its over.

If this doesn't make it a category 5 by a special update or 11pm I'll eat crow, but if it does I'll gladly serve it.
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#111 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:29 pm

senorpepr wrote:RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 05
Time: 2316Z
Latitude: 18.1°N
Longitude: 78.4°W
Location: 107 mi W of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: Moderate, occasional Severe
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 51 mph
Temperature: 43°F
Dewpoint: 43°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None


...Inbound NE quad ob...


DING - ladies and gentlemen, please make sure your tray table is in the
upright and locked position. The captain is white-knuckled and has said his prayers. Thank you, and have a lovely flight"
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#112 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:30 pm

Supplementary Vortex Data Message
Inbound Ob #1: 18.0°N 078.5°W; 700mb height: 10300 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: ESE (110°) @ 52 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 17.8°N 078.7°W; 700mb height: 10300 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 60 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 17.6°N 078.8°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 76 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 17.4°N 079.0°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: SE (130°) @ 85 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 17.3°N 079.2°W; 700mb height: 13000 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: SE (130°) @ 121 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 172 mph at 17.2°N 079.3°W
First inbound ob surface wind: NA

Outbound Ob #1: 16.9°N 079.6°W; 700mb height: 13100 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: n/a°F; Flt level wind: NNW (330°) @ 78 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 16.7°N 079.8°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: NW (310°) @ 40 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 16.6°N 080.0°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: NW (310°) @ 30 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 16.4°N 080.2°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 43°F; Flt level wind: NW (320°) @ 30 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 16.2°N 080.3°W; 700mb height: 10300 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 43°F; Flt level wind: NW (310°) @ 26 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 16.0°N 080.5°W; 700mb height: 10300 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: NW (310°) @ 25 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 141 mph at 17.0°N 079.5°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: NW (320°) @ 17 mph
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 10
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#113 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:30 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 24
Latest Ob Location: 178 mi SW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 00:18:00Z; 15.8°N 80.3°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (259°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #02: 00:18:30Z; 15.8°N 80.3°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (262°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #03: 00:19:00Z; 15.8°N 80.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: W (261°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #04: 00:19:30Z; 15.8°N 80.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (265°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #05: 00:20:00Z; 15.8°N 80.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: W (261°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #06: 00:20:30Z; 15.8°N 80.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: WSW (257°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: 00:21:00Z; 15.8°N 80.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: W (263°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: 00:21:30Z; 15.8°N 80.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: WSW (258°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #09: 00:22:00Z; 15.8°N 80.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: WSW (256°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #10: 00:22:30Z; 15.8°N 80°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: W (260°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #11: 00:23:00Z; 15.8°N 80°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: W (263°) @ 22 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #12: 00:23:30Z; 15.8°N 80°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: W (267°) @ 22 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #13: 00:24:00Z; 15.8°N 79.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: W (264°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #14: 00:24:30Z; 15.8°N 79.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: WSW (256°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #15: 00:25:00Z; 15.8°N 79.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: WSW (258°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #16: 00:25:30Z; 15.8°N 79.8°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: WSW (254°) @ 22 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #17: 00:26:00Z; 15.8°N 79.8°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 123 ft; Wind: WSW (254°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #18: 00:26:30Z; 15.8°N 79.8°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: WSW (248°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #19: 00:27:00Z; 15.8°N 79.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: WSW (247°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #20: 00:27:30Z; 15.8°N 79.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: WSW (246°) @ 23 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
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#114 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:38 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 25
Latest Ob Location: 203 mi SW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 00:28:00Z; 15.8°N 79.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: WSW (246°) @ 24 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #02: 00:28:30Z; 15.8°N 79.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: WSW (245°) @ 25 mph; Max Wind: 26 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #03: 00:29:00Z; 15.8°N 79.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: WSW (245°) @ 28 mph; Max Wind: 28 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #04: 00:29:30Z; 15.9°N 79.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: WSW (244°) @ 29 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #05: 00:30:00Z; 15.9°N 79.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: WSW (240°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #06: 00:30:30Z; 15.9°N 79.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: WSW (240°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #07: 00:31:00Z; 15.9°N 79.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: SW (236°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #08: 00:31:30Z; 15.9°N 79.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: SW (236°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #09: 00:32:00Z; 15.9°N 79.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: SW (236°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #10: 00:32:30Z; 15.9°N 79.4°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: SW (236°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #11: 00:33:00Z; 15.9°N 79.3°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: SW (232°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #12: 00:33:30Z; 15.9°N 79.3°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: SW (226°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #13: 00:34:00Z; 15.9°N 79.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: SW (228°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #14: 00:34:30Z; 15.9°N 79.2°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #15: 00:35:00Z; 15.9°N 79.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #16: 00:35:30Z; 15.9°N 79.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #17: 00:36:00Z; 15.9°N 79.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #18: 00:36:30Z; 15.9°N 79.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: SW (218°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #19: 00:37:00Z; 15.9°N 79.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: SW (220°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #20: 00:37:30Z; 15.9°N 79°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: SW (218°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
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#115 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:49 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 26
Latest Ob Location: 151 mi SSW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 00:38:00Z; 15.9°N 79°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #02: 00:38:30Z; 15.9°N 79°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #03: 00:39:00Z; 15.9°N 78.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 136 ft; Wind: SSW (207°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #04: 00:39:30Z; 15.9°N 78.9°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 136 ft; Wind: SSW (204°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #05: 00:40:00Z; 15.9°N 78.9°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: SSW (198°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #06: 00:40:30Z; 15.9°N 78.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: SSW (205°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #07: 00:41:00Z; 15.9°N 78.8°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 138 ft; Wind: SSW (204°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #08: 00:41:30Z; 15.9°N 78.8°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 139 ft; Wind: SSW (201°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #09: 00:42:00Z; 15.9°N 78.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: SSW (196°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #10: 00:42:30Z; 15.9°N 78.7°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: SSW (193°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #11: 00:43:00Z; 15.9°N 78.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: SSW (194°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #12: 00:43:30Z; 15.9°N 78.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: SSW (194°) @ 28 mph; Max Wind: 29 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #13: 00:44:00Z; 15.9°N 78.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 141 ft; Wind: S (191°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 28 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #14: 00:44:30Z; 15.9°N 78.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 138 ft; Wind: SSW (194°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 26 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #15: 00:45:00Z; 15.9°N 78.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 139 ft; Wind: SSW (192°) @ 29 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #16: 00:45:30Z; 15.9°N 78.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: S (186°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #17: 00:46:00Z; 15.9°N 78.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 139 ft; Wind: S (184°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #18: 00:46:30Z; 15.9°N 78.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: S (185°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #19: 00:47:00Z; 15.9°N 78.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 141 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 35 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #20: 00:47:30Z; 15.9°N 78.4°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 141 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
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jkt21787
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#116 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:54 pm

Well, I'm assuming since there has been no special update that NHC doesn't think its a 5 yet? Certainly they would not wait until 11 to do so.
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#117 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:55 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 12
Time: 0048Z
Latitude: 16.0°N
Longitude: 78.4°W
Location: 171 mi SW of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Unknown
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: S (170°) @ 31 mph
Temperature: 48°F
Dewpoint: 45°F
Weather: Unknown
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#118 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:58 pm

Well, remember that dropsondes don't report sustained winds. That is exactly why the NHC didn't upgrade at 8pm. All the data shown that sustained winds, even 30-sec winds remained under cat 5 status. The dropsonde can't produce a one-minute wind, thanks to gravity. The time it spends measuring a parcle of atmosphere is faster than you can blink. Those winds in the dropsonde were gusts until proven otherwise by flight level winds.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#119 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:58 pm

937 to 929 millibars clearly shows that this cyclone is stronger...But the winds have not as of yet catched up. Also on the last frame the soild red is redeveloping around the eye.
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gkrangers

#120 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:00 pm

senorpepr wrote:Well, remember that dropsondes don't report sustained winds. That is exactly why the NHC didn't upgrade at 8pm. All the data shown that sustained winds, even 30-sec winds remained under cat 5 status. The dropsonde can't produce a one-minute wind, thanks to gravity. The time it spends measuring a parcle of atmosphere is faster than you can blink. Those winds in the dropsonde were gusts until proven otherwise by flight level winds.
Thanks for the explanation.
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