upper ridge
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freeport_texas22
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upper ridge
Whats a local met said perhaps yall know him Neil Frank...By Monday an upper ridge is expected to build into the state. It's that ridge that will guide Hurricane Emily south and west of here. If that ridge is not as strong as forecst, then Emily will have an opportunity to turn northward toward Texas. What do yall make of this?
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gkrangers
What I make of it is...he's correct.
If the ridge builds in as strong as expected and there is no significant weakness created by the shortwave dropping down into the southern US, Emily will hit the northern Mexico coast.
If the ridge does not build as far westward, and/or the shortwave trough is stronger and sticks around longer than anticipated, a south Texas landfall would be possible.
If the ridge builds in as strong as expected and there is no significant weakness created by the shortwave dropping down into the southern US, Emily will hit the northern Mexico coast.
If the ridge does not build as far westward, and/or the shortwave trough is stronger and sticks around longer than anticipated, a south Texas landfall would be possible.
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Cape Verde
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What I make of it is that I wasn't paying attention and I thought the upper ridge was already in place to protect Texas, and it was only a question of whether it would move east.<P>To me, that's far different than saying the ridge will build west. If it doesn't, there are going to be a whole lot of Texans saying what the hell happened.
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freeport_texas22
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gkrangers
Not really...if its aiming itself right near the border, we won't really know till landfall. This is a distinct possibility. Regardless, those in extreme S. Texas will feel outer rain bands at the minimum.canegrl04 wrote:We'll have have our answer come Monday as to whether or not Emily will be coming toTexas
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stormie_skies
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gkrangers wrote:What I make of it is...he's correct.
If the ridge builds in as strong as expected and there is no significant weakness created by the shortwave dropping down into the southern US, Emily will hit the northern Mexico coast.
If the ridge does not build as far westward, and/or the shortwave trough is stronger and sticks around longer than anticipated, a south Texas landfall would be possible.
Dr. Frank doesnt seem to be just talking about a south Texas landfall, tho ... he continues to stress that the margin of error leaves room for even a landfall further north than Corpus ... there may only be an 8% chance of a Galveston landfall (as opposed to 18% for Brownsville), but he certainly seems to think we should all be keeping our eyes on this high...
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