What's the water temp in NGOM?

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Coldfront
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What's the water temp in NGOM?

#1 Postby Coldfront » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:04 pm

Are the NGOM waters warm enough where Emily could rebuild into a Cat 4 or near Cat 5 again after she crosses the Yucatan?

TIA...
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#2 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:06 pm

The area where Emily will move across is untouched this season. Arlene, Cindy, Dennis were all in the Central and Eastern GOM or basically east of the Yucatan(all three came across some part of Cuba).
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#3 Postby Coldfront » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:13 pm

Thanks, Brent!

No churn means deeper warm waters, right? Do you see slow build-up, or could we be looking at another Charlie "explosion" like last year's surprise?
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#4 Postby MomH » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:25 pm

Bouy Station 42056 Just south of Yucatan is posting 85.3 degrees at 8:50 pm EDT. :(

Bouy Station 42055 on the north side of the Yucatan is posting 86 degrees this evening. :( :(

Does that help?
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#5 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:27 pm

Coldfront wrote:Thanks, Brent!

No churn means deeper warm waters, right? Do you see slow build-up, or could we be looking at another Charlie "explosion" like last year's surprise?


We could... but there should be *some* shear which should prevent rapid intensification. NHC does forecast slow strengthening though.

However... we all know intensity forecasts are tough and after what Emily has done today(borderline Cat 5), nothing would surprise me.
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#6 Postby Coldfront » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:56 am

Thanks guys. Will keep an eye on her and see what happens. Hopefully she'll keep weakening before she makes landfall.
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#7 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:52 am

Coldfront wrote:Thanks guys. Will keep an eye on her and see what happens. Hopefully she'll keep weakening before she makes landfall.


yeah what IS making her weaken? is it those westerlies they were talking about... increased shear?
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