Africa has more plans for.....

[dixiebreeze]

us. It's going to be a busy August, I'm thinking:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[dhweather]

Gee, dandy. The one that just came off looked promising, but as most
do in July, it went poof.

[cycloneye]

Gee, dandy. The one that just came off looked promising, but as most
do in July, it went poof.

TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG 20N FROM 9N TO 20N IS MOVING W AT
15 KT. THE WAVE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 1700 UTC
RAOB FROM SAL INDICATED LIGHT NE TO NW WINDS IN THE 1000-925 MB
LAYER SUGGESTING THE WAVE IS TO THE E OF THAT LOCATION. THIS
WAVE AS WAS THE CASE FOR SEVERAL PREVIOUS WAVES IS WELL
ORGANIZED FOR MID JULY. ONLY POCKETS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE AND
THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ.


Interesting wave but with little convection as expected for july.

[WeatherEmperor]

Just a couple weeks until August kicks off. Boy Im getting nervous as well as anxious.

<RICKY>

[Ixolib]

us. It's going to be a busy August, I'm thinking:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

And we still have another 15 days before August even gets here!!

[Hyperstorm]

The problem is that these impressive waves have come off the coast at a fairly high latitude so far where cooler waters exist. If they were only 100-200 miles further south, they would have likely developed and we would have had an F and G storm already.

It very much so appears that this high-latitude ITCZ near Africa is setting the stage for some VERY active times when August and September comes around and waters are warmer near the Cape Verde islands.

Hopefully this will continue, as *most* of these would become storms for the fishes due to their higher initial latitude...

[Swimdude]

Nice tropical wave there... However, I noticed there was nothing said by the NHC about the possibility of development.

[WeatherEmperor]

The problem is that these impressive waves have come off the coast at a fairly high latitude so far where cooler waters exist. If they were only 100-200 miles further south, they would have likely developed and we would have had an F and G storm already.

It very much so appears that this high-latitude ITCZ near Africa is setting the stage for some VERY active times when August and September comes around and waters are warmer near the Cape Verde islands.

Hopefully this will continue, as *most* of these would become storms for the fishes due to their higher initial latitude...

Very well said.

<RICKY>

[johngaltfla]

The problem is that these impressive waves have come off the coast at a fairly high latitude so far where cooler waters exist. If they were only 100-200 miles further south, they would have likely developed and we would have had an F and G storm already.

It very much so appears that this high-latitude ITCZ near Africa is setting the stage for some VERY active times when August and September comes around and waters are warmer near the Cape Verde islands.

Hopefully this will continue, as *most* of these would become storms for the fishes due to their higher initial latitude...

Sigh. We need more fishes. I don't care if we get 22 storms, as long as they are all fish...

[Hurricane Cheese]

Gotta love the ole METEOSAT

[HurricaneQueen]

For what it's worth, our local NBC met just pointed out two waves that have recently left Africa. The first one appears to be too high for development but the one behind that looked "promising".

Lynn

[EDR1222]

I read somewhere on another thread that something called the MJO is changing and there could maybe be a lull in activity for a few weeks.

Does anyone have any information on this?

It still looks to me that it should continue to stay active because in August the windshear usually begins to relax, and the water temperatures will be even warmer, so it seems like there is nothing to slow it down as the waves keep rolling off Africa.

[themusk]

I read somewhere on another thread that something called the MJO is changing and there could maybe be a lull in activity for a few weeks.

Does anyone have any information on this?

It still looks to me that it should continue to stay active because in August the windshear usually begins to relax, and the water temperatures will be even warmer, so it seems like there is nothing to slow it down as the waves keep rolling off Africa.

About the Madden-Julian Oscillation

I haven't a clue, however, how to determine what's actually happening with the MJO at any given time -- neither how to use my own brain cells to figure it out, nor where to look for the NHC's take on the matter.

[Trader Ron]

For what it's worth, our local NBC met just pointed out two waves that have recently left Africa. The first one appears to be too high for development but the one behind that looked "promising".

Lynn

Lynn,

Was it Tom Recker? He's the King of Hype.