Should I stay or should I go????

[gkrangers]

"em" is tiny.....and the surge is only a concern for the eyewall....unless your address ends in mexico nothing more than keeping an eye on the situation is necessary at this time. models are very tightly clustered and hundreds of miles south of texas...the NHC forecast is conservatively north at this time.

The models are horribly wrong sometimes, you put far too much stock in them. Those south of Corpus Christi need to watch closely, those in the Brownsville area should be making hurricane preparations.

Also...about the surge...tell that to the people that live along the big bend of Florida...the town of St. Marks was completely underwater and they were hundreds of miles away from the center of Dennis.

[stormie_skies]

"em" is tiny.....and the surge is only a concern for the eyewall....unless your address ends in mexico nothing more than keeping an eye on the situation is necessary at this time. models are very tightly clustered and hundreds of miles south of texas...the NHC forecast is conservatively north at this time.

Ummm....did you read the 11 pm discussion?

The
forecast remains on the northern side of the dynamical model
guidance envelope.... since some of the models... especially the
southern outliers... do not initialize the position or short-term
motion very well. If anything... the models have trended slightly
northward since the previous runs... so I see no reason to shift
the forecast track over the Gulf of Mexico. It is still to soon...
however... to determine if landfall on the North American Mainland
will occur in northern Mexico or in Texas.

They dont sound nearly as sure as you are that all of Texas is safe....

[dwg71]

nobody is saying all of texas is safe, we are saying all of those north of corpus are safe....

[stormie_skies]

nobody is saying all of texas is safe, we are saying all of those north of corpus are safe....

Even if she made landfall at or just south of Corpus, a storm this size would cause rain and coastal flooding quite a ways up the coast on the dirty side....

[Anonymous]

nobody is saying all of texas is safe, we are saying all of those north of corpus are safe....

I would not say that either as Corpus in not that far from Brownsville land wise. JMO

[stormie_skies]

I dunno......Dr. Frank is rather insistant that we keep a close eye on this thing, and that a hit closer to home isnt likely, but is certainly possible. I have quite a bit of faith in his judgement ....so I will keep my eyes peeled. Y'all can do whatever you want...

[beachbum_al]

I would wait and see on Sunday night/Monday morning. I think that will be the day that people will know kind of where Emily is going. Just prepare and keep your guard up if you do have to leave.

[djtil]

as i said...."keep a close eye on the situation".....but in reality it would be a complete fluke...maybe 1-50 chance that emily affects the US coast.