00:00z Model Guidance=Moving 295 at 16kts,Still Old Mexico

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cycloneye
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00:00z Model Guidance=Moving 295 at 16kts,Still Old Mexico

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:41 pm

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050717 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050717 0000 050717 1200 050718 0000 050718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 79.5W 18.4N 82.6W 19.6N 85.6W 20.9N 88.5W
BAMM 17.1N 79.5W 18.2N 83.1W 19.2N 86.7W 20.3N 90.4W
A98E 17.1N 79.5W 18.5N 82.5W 19.8N 85.2W 20.9N 87.8W
LBAR 17.1N 79.5W 18.4N 82.9W 19.8N 86.5W 21.2N 89.9W
SHIP 135KTS 130KTS 121KTS 114KTS
DSHP 135KTS 130KTS 121KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050719 0000 050720 0000 050721 0000 050722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 91.1W 23.8N 96.0W 24.6N 101.4W 25.6N 106.8W
BAMM 21.2N 93.4W 22.0N 98.6W 22.3N 103.8W 23.4N 110.1W
A98E 21.9N 90.5W 24.1N 95.8W 26.2N 100.5W 28.6N 104.4W
LBAR 22.7N 93.1W 26.5N 98.6W 30.4N 102.7W 33.4N 103.4W
SHIP 106KTS 96KTS 88KTS 81KTS
DSHP 71KTS 61KTS 31KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 79.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 76.5W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 73.4W
WNDCUR = 135KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 929MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 110NM

Image

It's moving now 295 according to the run from the guidance.LBAR and UKMET has it very close to Brownsville.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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gkrangers

#2 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:45 pm

BAMM and GFDL have returned from being out to lunch...and are now out to dinner.
Last edited by gkrangers on Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:46 pm

nevermind...i am an idiot...sorry... :D
Last edited by deltadog03 on Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:47 pm

deltadog03 wrote:if i can tell, it looks to me they all intialized too far south...correct??

00z 17.1N and 79.4W....this was emily's cords...
Center is at about 17.2N now. So, no, not really.
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#5 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:47 pm

deltadog03 wrote:if i can tell, it looks to me they all intialized too far south...correct??

00z 17.1N and 79.4W....this was emily's cords...


They initialized at 17.1 N and 79.5 W. :P
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#6 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:47 pm

Hmmmm, they are not as clustered as they were this morning.
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#7 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:48 pm

gkrangers wrote:BAMM and GFDL have returned from being out to lunch...and are now out to dinner.


LOL!!! :lol:
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gkrangers

#8 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:51 pm

Brent wrote:
gkrangers wrote:BAMM and GFDL have returned from being out to lunch...and are now out to dinner.


LOL!!! :lol:
The GFDL is bunk because the GFS sucked.
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#9 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:51 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Brent wrote:
gkrangers wrote:BAMM and GFDL have returned from being out to lunch...and are now out to dinner.


LOL!!! :lol:
The GFDL is bunk because the GFS sucked.


agreed...
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#10 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:30 pm

Lightning must have struck GFDL...
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InimanaChoogamaga

#11 Postby InimanaChoogamaga » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:27 pm

Image

What's up with that little blue one way to the left?
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#12 Postby dwg71 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:29 pm

its the epac system i believe..
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#13 Postby FritzPaul » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:32 pm

InimanaChoogamaga wrote:Image

What's up with that little blue one way to the left?


The UKMET thinks shes going to teleport into the EPAC. :lol:
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#14 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:33 pm

Im liking the UKMET track now.
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#15 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:35 pm

dwg71 wrote:its the epac system i believe..


Yep - models have been pretty consistent on development here over the last few days. Could see the EPAC heat up here soon!
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kevin

#16 Postby kevin » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:42 pm

Isn't Texas technically part of old Mexico?
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#17 Postby jwayne » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:44 pm

kevin wrote:Isn't Texas technically part of old Mexico?


No, old Mex. is technically part of Texas.
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#18 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:47 pm

Haha wow, so confusing. Moving at 295... Interesting.
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#19 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:58 pm

OK, now that I have FINALLY figured out how to read the GFS ... am tracking the new 0z run. Anyone else watching?

Through 60 hrs, looks like its trending further north ... is this model run reflective of the new data from the NOAA planes? And through 72 hrs, the track looks to mirror NHC's current forecasted track.
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#20 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:03 pm

Portastorm wrote:OK, now that I have FINALLY figured out how to read the GFS ... am tracking the new 0z run. Anyone else watching?

Through 60 hrs, looks like its trending further north ... is this model run reflective of the new data from the NOAA planes? And through 72 hrs, the track looks to mirror NHC's current forecasted track.

GFS is running with the NOAA plane info tonight. This is a very crucial run.
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