July 17 00Z Global models CANADIAN/GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS ... about identical to prev run...upper Yucatan landfall b/t 24 and 36 h...2nd landfall IVO Tampico MX 84 h...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071700

GFS...unsurprisingly shifts well north of prev forecast...also slower than prev...mid Mexican Yucatan landfall between 24-30 h...after...pecuiliar oscillations between a northerly/northwesterly/west-northwesterly track ... northern Mexico landfall between 78 and 84 h....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

CANADIAN... issues with depicting a low persist...slightly further south on Yucatan landfall b/t 24 and 36 h... otherwise identical... Northern Mexico landfall at 72 h...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

UKMET... subtley further south at 36h with uppermmost Yucatan landfall...after...further south... Northern Mexico landfall at 84h...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

ECMWF will be out in an hour or so...

[dwg71]

yet even more verification and agreeance that this storm will strike pennisula and then head to northern mexico, intensity is a bigger question than direction, lets hope for more southern track over penn to weaken her to cat 1-2

[Stratosphere747]

Are these with the NOAA info?

[clfenwi]

Umm...big downer on the GFS...from the HPC's model diagnostic discussion

This is from the initialziation section...

HRCN EMILY...
THE NAM/GFS WERE 50 NM TOO FAR SW W/EMILY. THIS LIKELY WL IMPACT
THEIR FCSTS OF THE STORM TO SOME DEGREE.

other Emily related notes in the discussion...

MODEL TRENDS...

HRCN EMILY...
THE NAM 24 HRS AGO WAS EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK W/THIS SYS AND TOOK THE
H5 ENERGY NORTH OF MANY OF ITS RUNS OVR THE PAST 48 HRS. ITS LAST
THREE RUNS /FROM 12Z ONWARD/ ARE CONSISTENT ON TAKING THE HRCN
THRU THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE AT 60
HRS...A NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM ITS RUNS FROM 30-48 HRS AGO. THE GFS
HAS SPED UP THE MOVMT OF EMILY...AND WAS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF ITS
PREV 2 SOLNS. THE ECMWF HAS A BARELY NOTICEABLE NWD TREND OVR THE
LAST 3 DAYS...WHICH IS MASKED ITS SWD SHIFT BETWEEN 16/00Z AND
16/12Z RUNS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

HRCN EMILY...
THE NAM REMAINS QUICKER THAN THE GFS W/THIS SYS...BUT THEIR TRACKS
ARE SIMILAR...THOUGH THE NAM BRINGS THE CNTR CLOSER TO BRO THAN
THE GFS. THE UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT A LITTLE SLOWER. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE. THE ECMWF IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH.
SINCE THE MDLS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY TRENDING NWD... THE ECMWF WOULD
BE DISCARDED. THE NCEP ENSMEMBERS FROM 12Z/18Z WERE A
RIOT...TAKING EMILY WWD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUAN BORDER BEFORE
KILLING IT. THE GFS IS CLOSEST TO THE TPC TRACK...AND IS PREFERRED
BY DEFAULT.

[Swimdude]

I don't even know what's going on. I'm off to read a good fictional book, non-weather related, until the 2 a.m. advisory. Maybe then we'll know where she'll make landfall... The first time! Yeesh.

[Stratosphere747]

So would this imply that there could possibly be seeing sometype of weakness in the High, per the NOAA info?

Though it does seem the shift is really not that much.

[hicksta]

It would imply the high is building but not as fast as expected showing a slightly more North course.

[clfenwi]

The GFS' tracks have jumped around so much in the past 36 hours, I wouldn't try to divine anything from the latest shift....to review, 36 hours ago it was saying Corpus Cristi, 24 hours ago it shifted south some, 12 hours ago it shifted south big-time (Belize and Veracruz as landfall points) to the point that it was obviously wrong... now, a big jump north... of these four, NOGAPS has been most consistent and realistic, with the UKMET (of late) coming in a somewhat distant second...

[dwg71]

It would imply the high is building but not as fast as expected showing a slightly more North course.

Thats the models, thats not whats happening, She is on course or even a bit south of it.

[hicksta]

It would imply the high is building but not as fast as expected showing a slightly more North course.

Thats the models, thats not whats happening, She is on course or even a bit south of it.

Exactly i was talking about the models.

[clfenwi]

European...you would love to know how it got to its 72 hour point, but alas it is a mystery...landfall further north in N Mexico at 96 h... biggest shift I've seen in this model during this storm...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[clfenwi]

Two final thoughts:

1. I think this is the biggest spread that there has been between the European and NOGAPS models. As they seem to have been neck and neck with regards to which has been offering the best forecast, this one may be the one that breaks the tie....

2. The difference between the NOGAPS second landfall forecast and the forecast of all the others is kind of big (especially when you see how tightly clustered all of the others are). I was once offered the wisdom that when models converege on a solution for something that is more than a couple of days away, then that solution tends to be wrong. Unless there is something blatantly wrong with the NOGAPS forecast, that wisdom would suggest that the NOGAPS forecast may very well be the correct one.

[Derek Ortt]

careful of the GFS. It butchered the ridge to the north in the 0Z run