Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still 150 mph for the 5am...

[southerngale]

Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 26

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 17, 2005


...Extremely dangerous Emily passing south of the Cayman
Islands...headed for the Yucatan...

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Jamaica has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica.


Hurricane warnings remain in effect for the Cayman Islands and the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Chetumal
northward to Cabo Catoche... including Cozumel and the islas
mujeres. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.


A Hurricane Watch is in effect from west of Cabo Catoche on
the Yucatan Peninsula to Campeche. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area
within the next 36 hours.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.


Tropical storm conditions are also possible over portions of extreme
western Cuba.


Interests in the southern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Emily.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 18.0 north... longitude 82.0 west or about 105 miles...
165 km... south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about 365 miles...
585 km...east-southeast of Cozumel Mexico.


Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph
...32 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Emily is expected
to reach the Yucatan Peninsula very late tonight or early Monday
morning.


Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major
hurricanes...but little overall change in strength is expected
before Emily makes landfall.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb...27.70 inches.


Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous waves...are
possible along the south coasts of the Cayman Islands. Coastal
storm surge flooding of 8-12 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and
to the north of where the center makes landfall in Mexico.


Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible across the Cayman
Islands...with rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches possible over
western Cuba. Storm total amounts of 5 to 8 inches are possible
over the Yucatan Peninsula...with isolated maximum amounts of up to
12 inches.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...18.0 N... 82.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.


Forecaster Franklin

[southerngale]

That should read WNW at 20 MPH

[wxwatcher91]

rrgh 20 bucks Emily doesnt strengthen again and history is then erased!

the NHC has me very p-oed right now

[wxwatcher91]

Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 26


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 17, 2005



at 0324z...the Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft
reported flight-level winds of 153 kt. The Standard adjustment of
this value to the surface would yield 138 kt...or just above the
category five threshold. At that time however...the central
pressure was rising rapidly and on the next pass through the
northeast quadrant only 132 kt winds were found. It is possible
that Emily reached category five intensity briefly around 03z. The
current intensity estimate is 130 kt. While the outflow pattern is
restricted in the southwest quadrant...conditions are otherwise
favorable for Emily to remain a major hurricane until it reaches
the Yucatan. Depending on the precise track...Emily could spend
about 12 hours over the Yucatan Peninsula...and such a small system
is likely to be significantly weakened over land. However...there
will be ample time in a light shear environment over the warm Gulf
waters for Emily to regain major hurricane status before its final
landfall.

The initial motion is 290/17. There has been little change to the
forecast track. Mid-level ridging is expected to persist north of
the hurricane for the duration. In about 48 hours...Emily will be
approaching a modest mid-latitude short wave over the Southern
Plains...and this could briefly result in a rightward deflection of
the track before a more westward motion resumes. The official
forecast is very close to a tightly clustered guidance envelope.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/0900z 18.0n 82.0w 130 kt
12hr VT 17/1800z 18.9n 84.5w 130 kt
24hr VT 18/0600z 20.2n 87.4w 125 kt
36hr VT 18/1800z 21.5n 90.2w 80 kt
48hr VT 19/0600z 22.7n 93.0w 95 kt
72hr VT 20/0600z 24.0n 97.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 21/0600z 24.5n 102.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 22/0600z...dissipated


$$

[wxwatcher91]

Emily is still moving into warmer waters...

[Thunder44]

rrgh 20 bucks Emily doesnt strengthen again and history is then erased!

the NHC has me very p-oed right now

What did you expect? There no plane in there now.

[Derek Ortt]

come on

they acknowledged that Emily may have been a cat 5. They couldnt make the upgrade at the time. Bets trakc will resolve this

as has been stated previously by many, those bashing NHC, put your money where your mouth is and start writing your own products

[wxwatcher91]

lol I know it's not their fault... it's
1) their conservativeness towards strength and
2) because their advisories are every three hours not every three minutes.

whats going on with Emily now anyway??? the eye is disapearing... is it possible to go through another EWRC an hour after just having one???

[cycloneye]

Sundays advisories.

[drezee]

5am Sunday the NHC said this:

AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT. THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF
THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE
CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD. AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z.

[drezee]

051
WTNT35 KNHC 171143
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO
CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE EMILY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxwatcher91]

what's going on with Emily's eye??? its disapearing. could Emily be going through ANOTHER EWRC an hour after she just had one???

[senorpepr]

what's going on with Emily's eye??? its disapearing. could Emily be going through ANOTHER EWRC an hour after she just had one???

No. ERC don't happen that frequently.

[wxwatcher91]

what's going on with Emily's eye??? its disapearing. could Emily be going through ANOTHER EWRC an hour after she just had one???

No. ERC don't happen that frequently.

then what? it Emily actually weakening??? the only sign of her weakening though is the eye... there is no evident shear and water temps are very high

[rainstorm]

lets pray she is weakening

[Andrew92]

lets pray she is weakening

AMEN!!!

[wxwatcher91]

lol amen to that

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z SUN JUL 17 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS
MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.9N 88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
34 KT...125NE 80SE 50SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.1N 94.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 24.5N 104.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 83.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...NEW HURRICANE WARNING FOR MEXICO...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS
MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES... 265 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 250
MILES... 405 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN