Who will be the target in August/September!

[johngaltfla]

I think we'll see the Florida peninsula and New England get hit in the August to October time period.

Mother Nature will probably take care of some of those areas that many of us put the "due" label on.....

[Patrick99]

I think it will be "September, remember" for South East Florida. This is a complete Fig Newton (figment of the imagination and is not based upon any science whatsoever...) other than the setup of strong Bermuda HIgh with the possibilty of descending fronts in Septmeber to recurve storms towards Florida....

I hope not. But I have been worried. Don't like the looks of it at all. I hope things shut down in the Atlantic, perhaps picking up In the EPAC in late August.
Zip

Yeah....historically, we see our storms in September and October, not July and August.

I continue to wonder when a big lumbering Mitch or Michelle like storm will come up from the south in October, and nail the Keys and South Florida. It's going to happen eventually.

[Scorpion]

As the Bermuda High shifts around and the troughs become more frequent I think that there will be more of a FL/NC threat, and of course the threat of an Andrew type storm that hits the FL peninsula and goes into the GOM. GOM can't take all the storms.

[Robert]

By the way, where is the Carolina contingent this season?

Now, THAT is a good question... Perhaps enjoying cloudless and windless days at the beaches??

Sorry I could not respond earliler, I was at the beach (partly couldy, nice breeze for sailing). There are several of us watching, but once it goes under Florida, we all breath a bit easier, then throw on our trucks, grab our towels and head to the beach.


Robert

[Betrock]

By the way, where is the Carolina contingent this season?

...then throw on our trucks, grab our towels and head to the beach.


Robert

They're all exhausted from carrying around those heavy trucks!

[cajungal]

Well, almost all the storms that hit Louisiana have hit in September. With a few in October. And Andrew hit the very last week of August. I have a gut feeling that we will have a major hurricane threatning for the Labor Day Holiday. And a strange feeling that Louisiana may get something close to the 40th anniversary of Betsy around Sept 9th. These are just my gut feelings.

[Pebbles]

Wow.. really surpised no one has said the carolina coasts. I think the pattern will shift and we will start seeing storms heading towards the east coast of FL and the carolina's come latter august and september time.

[BLHutch]

After august, texas doesnt see many storms

Do you mean this season or historically? From a historical standpoint, we have had our strongest storms in September. And have been hit more often late in the season.

Sept. 1875: Hurricane devestated Indianola and casued tides 10 feet above normal in Galveston

(note Indianola would be destroyed by an August storm in 1886...the town was never rebuilt)

Oct. 1886: Area from Galveston to Sabine Pass heavily damaged by the worst storm in Galveston's history until 1900

Sept. 1900: The storm which needs no introduction

Sept. 1915: Galveston hit again and saved by the seawall.

etc, etc.

The following site gives a history of all storms known to have hit the Texas coast. The vast majority have done so in August and September.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhur.htm

Brady

[Stephanie]

The east coast's time is usually when the season is at it's peak - September. I don't think that the east coast will come away clean.

[BLHutch]

Steph,

I love your picture thing with the cat and the food bowl. Very funny!

(I have a 25 pound black cat and fear that I will find her dead one day with her face in the food bowl)

Brady

[AL Chili Pepper]

For some reason I keep having a bad feeling about the Mississippi coast this season.

Where'd THAT come from???

LOL! I wanted to put that in the first post and forgot (when I was mentioning the Northern GOM). I just really believe that the 2005 Hurricane season is not through with the Northern GOM.

I've been kicking that one around in my head also, probably because I've been wondering for years now what would happen to the casinos if a major struck. What's the last major storm that hit over that way? Frederic in '79 (which was really east of there, considering almost all of the MS coast was on the good side).Considering all the activity to their immediate east, I'd say they're overdue.

[duris]

Well, almost all the storms that hit Louisiana have hit in September. With a few in October. And Andrew hit the very last week of August. I have a gut feeling that we will have a major hurricane threatning for the Labor Day Holiday. And a strange feeling that Louisiana may get something close to the 40th anniversary of Betsy around Sept 9th. These are just my gut feelings.

Funny, I remember in the mid to late 70's, seems like every Labor Day there was a threat. My dad used to work at the Baptist Mission and always had to be on duty, so we went there since it's 5 stories. My poor brother's birthday is Sept. 7, so it seems like we always celebrated his birthday at the Mission, though I'm only sure that we did that once.

[WeatherEmperor]

Its weird to know that August is only 2 weeks away. The closer we get the more affraid I become.

<RICKY>

[millibar]

Us Carolina folks are definitely here:
1. Keeping you GOMers in our minds and hearts as you get hammered (we know how that feels!).
2. Hoping for a record-breaking year, wishing they are all mostly recurvers.
3. Knowing our time in the gunsites is coming, and...
4. Definitely NOT -removed-!!

Millibar

[Galvestongirl]

Galvestongirl wrote:
After august, texas doesnt see many storms


Do you mean this season or historically? From a historical standpoint, we have had our strongest storms in September. And have been hit more often late in the season.

Sept. 1875: Hurricane devestated Indianola and casued tides 10 feet above normal in Galveston

(note Indianola would be destroyed by an August storm in 1886...the town was never rebuilt)

Oct. 1886: Area from Galveston to Sabine Pass heavily damaged by the worst storm in Galveston's history until 1900

Sept. 1900: The storm which needs no introduction

Sept. 1915: Galveston hit again and saved by the seawall.

etc, etc.

The following site gives a history of all storms known to have hit the Texas coast. The vast majority have done so in August and September.

no, just observation from living in this area all my life, and according to the site,Hurricane/Tropical Storm Strikes and Near Strikes (1871-1999) there have only been 67 strikes/near strikes in over 100 years in the months of Aug/sept. I think this is mainly due to the westerlies that are usually present after august. that being said, I am not saying that it does not happen, but that it does not happen often.

[Sanibel]

The previous high activity seasons for June and July, that then followed with low activity at the height of the season, didn't have major bombers like this year. Perhaps this is telling us the rest of the season will be active?

[Stephanie]

Steph,

I love your picture thing with the cat and the food bowl. Very funny!

(I have a 25 pound black cat and fear that I will find her dead one day with her face in the food bowl)

Brady

Thanks Brady! I can see my own cats going comatose over a bowl of Yum-Yum's!

[BLHutch]

no, just observation from living in this area all my life, and according to the site,Hurricane/Tropical Storm Strikes and Near Strikes (1871-1999) there have only been 67 strikes/near strikes in over 100 years in the months of Aug/sept. I think this is mainly due to the westerlies that are usually present after august. that being said, I am not saying that it does not happen, but that it does not happen often.

However, if you consider the total number of strikes and near/misses during that same time period, you will see that the 67 in Aug/Sept are a majority of the total strikes. So I have always felt that we were at a greater risk in August/Sept. than we were in June.....at least at a greater risk for a strong hurricane.

That said, this season, all bets are off. I am having to rethink my usual "we won't get a severe storm until Aug/Sept." mentality.

Brady

[Galvestongirl]

no, just observation from living in this area all my life, and according to the site,Hurricane/Tropical Storm Strikes and Near Strikes (1871-1999) there have only been 67 strikes/near strikes in over 100 years in the months of Aug/sept. I think this is mainly due to the westerlies that are usually present after august. that being said, I am not saying that it does not happen, but that it does not happen often.

However, if you consider the total number of strikes and near/misses during that same time period, you will see that the 67 in Aug/Sept are a majority of the total strikes. So I have always felt that we were at a greater risk in August/Sept. than we were in June.....at least at a greater risk for a strong hurricane.

That said, this season, all bets are off. I am having to rethink my usual "we won't get a severe storm until Aug/Sept." mentality.

Brady

LOL, yup...and my mentality of wont get a strike after Aug will have to be put on the back shelf also.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I continue to wonder when a big lumbering Mitch or Michelle like storm will come up from the south in October, and nail the Keys and South Florida. It's going to happen eventually.

/shudders