NOGAPS... at 36 h and later significantly further north... at 48 hr, just se of mouth of Rio Grande...turn to west and southwest brings landfall just south of RG at 60 h.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071712
GFS...slightly further north...landfall just south of RG at 66 hours....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
CANADIAN...slightly further north..landfall just south of RG b/t 60 and 72 h...
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_060.jpg
UKMET... about identical to previous run... maybe subtley further south than the other models in location of second landfall...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
Jul 17 12Z Global Models NOGAPS, GFS, UKMET, CAN
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Yes, if those are taking the NOAA flight obs into account, that is certainly good news.... 
I do have a question, tho .... the NHC keeps talking about this shortwave trough weakening the ridge and possibly letting Em get a little further north. Would the obs NOAA made yesterday give these models a better handle on that event (how big the weakness will be, when it will come, how long it will take for the ridge to build back strongly enough to move Em due west), or do we still have to wait and see about that?
I do have a question, tho .... the NHC keeps talking about this shortwave trough weakening the ridge and possibly letting Em get a little further north. Would the obs NOAA made yesterday give these models a better handle on that event (how big the weakness will be, when it will come, how long it will take for the ridge to build back strongly enough to move Em due west), or do we still have to wait and see about that?
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Mac
stormie_skies wrote:Yes, if those are taking the NOAA flight obs into account, that is certainly good news....
I do have a question, tho .... the NHC keeps talking about this shortwave trough weakening the ridge and possibly letting Em get a little further north. Would the obs NOAA made yesterday give these models a better handle on that event (how big the weakness will be, when it will come, how long it will take for the ridge to build back strongly enough to move Em due west), or do we still have to wait and see about that?
Yeah, I was kind of taking this "good" news with a grain of salt as well. Even if these models ARE taking the NOAA flight recon into account, they are only factoring in CURRENT conditions. The trough could change these conditions. So I wouldn't breath too big a sigh of relief just yet.
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