H Emily Recon Reports

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cycloneye
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H Emily Recon Reports

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:48 pm

Ok folks let'see if we can let the data from recon flow into this thread.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 18, 2005 5:41 am, edited 7 times in total.
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#2 Postby mf_dolphin » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:51 pm

Admin Note: Any post not directly related to the current recon will be deleted.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:59 pm

C. 17/1830Z
D. 19.9N 86.2W
E. 17/2200Z TO 18/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Here is the next mission timing from this afternoon to tonight.
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#4 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:32 pm

What's a reasonable guesstimate to time of first eye pressure sampling?

(With the schedule above, in conjunction with what I'm seeing on VIS, it appears they'll mesh perfectly with an intensification cycle.)
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#5 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:36 pm

mike18xx wrote:What's a reasonable guesstimate to time of first eye pressure sampling?

(With the schedule above, in conjunction with what I'm seeing on VIS, it appears they'll mesh perfectly with an intensification cycle.)


Should be in the eye around 6-7pm EDT...
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#6 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:38 pm

Its weakened considerably since I last saw it....it looks reealllly ragged now.
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#7 Postby calidoug » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:54 pm

Normandy wrote:Its weakened considerably since I last saw it....it looks reealllly ragged now.


Check the Vis loop. Impressive increase in convective coverage and outflow over the past several hours.

Definitely looking significantly better now than it did a few hours ago.
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#8 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:55 pm

its lopsided though...horrbily lopsided.
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#9 Postby calidoug » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:04 pm

Normandy wrote:its lopsided though...horrbily lopsided.


The central core, perhaps, but overall, symmetry has improved. I suspect the core will now strengthen considerably over the next several hours.
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#10 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:06 pm

I guess, but I think what happened to it was more than an ERC....perhaps shear hit it.
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#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:08 pm

Maybe, but not likely
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#12 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:12 pm

Well it has two huge outflow boundaires that it spit out, so we now air isnt flowing in well from the surface in the SW quad....until those go away I dont see it taking off.
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#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:14 pm

I think it will stay stable
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#14 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:17 pm

Well it has 10 hours till landfall....Time is ticking.
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#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:19 pm

Looks like landfall tonight
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#16 Postby InimanaChoogamaga » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:22 pm

The eye looks cloud covered but it still looks well organized. Maybe it will weaken some to spare Cancun the worst. Although it will still be at least a Cat 3 most likely.
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#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:23 pm

I noticed that too
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#18 Postby ohiostorm » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:28 pm

Outflow is alot better now too. When is the next recon?
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#19 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:29 pm

Id bet if recon were in there now theyd find a higher pressure....sorry i just dont see how its better organized that it was hours ago.
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#20 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:32 pm

Maybe the outflow is better, but the core is looking a little ragged
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