upper level low in bay of campeche

[jwayne]

shouldn't that turn emily more northerly over at least the next several hours? also, upper level low looks fairly stationary. Am I missing something here?

[hicksta]

Currently looks like she is moving more NW on the last slides. AHH the wobble wars

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be headed in more of a north component

[jwayne]

i don't mean a wobble. i mean a sustained well north of west move. I'm not saying I see one now. Just think that upper level low is interesting and I don't think it has been discussed much (maybe for good reason).

[Hurricaneman]

It might have a very slight effect, but it is interesting

[Stratosphere747]

It is there..

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

But looks like Emily is pushing it to the west.

[deltadog03]

great post...i was just going to ask about that, I was looking at the VIS and i was like woahh.....that may very well have some influence on her...Even, if she pushes it away...look off of the North shore of the Yuc, the clouds are heading in a NNW or NW movement...right along those lines....could the ULL in the BOC, push her far enough northward to get into those?? just a though..yeah maybe a NW wobble...

[Stratosphere747]

It is still on track to hit the southern end of Cozumel..

The last few frames show the hook book toward the west, balancing out the NW movement.

WNW still...IMO

[jwayne]

I ran a satellite loop and it looks to be holding pretty stationary. Upper level low is what steered dennis north. Not saying that will happen here, but you would think this would be getting some attention.

[jwayne]

effects of upper low look to extend to east coast of yucatan. I can only guess that nhc and other forecasters are assuming that it will back out to w or sw. sure doesn't look like it's moving to me. and if it doesn't in the next 8 hours, you would think it would have a significant steering effect on emily.

[hicksta]

Is the low moving right now.. i cant find it in a map

[Normandy]

Its still moving wnw....straight for Cozumel.

[Hurricaneman]

Not much

[hicksta]

Its still moving wnw....straight for Cozumel.

Correct but if the low stays put it would push emily more N once she gets of the YUC

[jwayne]

Its still moving wnw....straight for Cozumel.

not emily, the ull in the bay of campeche.

[Normandy]

Its still moving wnw....straight for Cozumel.

not emily, the ull in the bay of campeche.

Ohhh...thats stationary....either emily will have to push it out the way or emily would have to slow down.

[jwayne]

Its still moving wnw....straight for Cozumel.

not emily, the ull in the bay of campeche.

Ohhh...thats stationary....either emily will have to push it out the way or emily would have to slow down.

or turn right. I'll guess we'll see here in the next 4 to 6 hours. With it moving 20mph, I'm betting on a northly turn if the ull does not back to the west.

[stormie_skies]

Funny....I dont remember the NHC mentioning that ULL.... maybe the shear from it is one of the reasons Em looks weaker....?? If it stays put, I wonder if that could effect the track significantly in the long run, either by pushing Em north or by forcing her to slow down....

[jwayne]

i smell a blown forecast track in a few hours. or, maybe I just need a shower.

[Portastorm]

i smell a blown forecast track in a few hours. or, maybe I just need a shower.

easy jwayne, easy ... I'm sure the NHC is well aware of it.