H Emily Recon Reports

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#61 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:28 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Max Wind=127 mph NE quad
Max wind on surface= 114.3 mph
Guess I was a little overestimating it with the 100 knot estimate
Ok but they flew through the SE and NW quads.


Actually, it was the SE and the W quads.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#62 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:29 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 08
Time: 22:58:00Z
Latitude: 19.4°N
Longitude: 85.6°W
Location: 141 mi SE of Cancun, Mexico
Minimum height at 700 mb 2691 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 115 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 8 mi E (87°)
Maximum flight level wind: S (185°) @ 126 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 12 mi ESE (102°)
Sea level pressure: 951 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 46°F at 10010 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 64°F at 9977 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 55°F
Eye character: OPEN SE
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 12 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 109 KT E QUAD 22:55:10 Z

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#63 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:29 pm

Yep its still weakening.
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#64 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:30 pm

senorpepr wrote:
gkrangers wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Max Wind=127 mph NE quad
Max wind on surface= 114.3 mph
Guess I was a little overestimating it with the 100 knot estimate
Ok but they flew through the SE and NW quads.


Actually, it was the SE and the W quads.
They didn't make a straight pass across?

Pressure up only 3 millibars...not bad at all considering the problems its had this afternoon.

And for all we know, pressure could actually have been HIGHER than that this afternoon/evening.

951MB is not a good sign IMO, especially with the latest GOES EAST frame..
Last edited by gkrangers on Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#65 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:30 pm

Grreat news that is not bombing but weakening.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#66 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:31 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 29
Latest Ob Location: 129 mi SE of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 23:19:00Z; 20.2°N 86.4°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: ENE (69°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 75 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #02: 23:19:30Z; 20.2°N 86.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: ENE (73°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 67 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #03: 23:20:00Z; 20.2°N 86.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 94 ft; Wind: ENE (72°) @ 63 mph; Max Wind: 63 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #04: 23:20:30Z; 20.3°N 86.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 96 ft; Wind: ENE (73°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 66 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #05: 23:21:00Z; 20.3°N 86.5°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 99 ft; Wind: ENE (74°) @ 62 mph; Max Wind: 63 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #06: 23:21:30Z; 20.3°N 86.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: ENE (73°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #07: 23:22:00Z; 20.3°N 86.6°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: ENE (70°) @ 62 mph; Max Wind: 63 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #08: 23:22:30Z; 20.3°N 86.6°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: 102 ft; Wind: ENE (65°) @ 62 mph; Max Wind: 63 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #09: 23:23:00Z; 20.3°N 86.6°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 101 ft; Wind: ENE (61°) @ 60 mph; Max Wind: 61 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #10: 23:23:30Z; 20.3°N 86.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 101 ft; Wind: ENE (63°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 61 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #11: 23:24:00Z; 20.2°N 86.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 101 ft; Wind: ENE (65°) @ 59 mph; Max Wind: 60 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #12: 23:24:30Z; 20.2°N 86.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 99 ft; Wind: ENE (67°) @ 54 mph; Max Wind: 56 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #13: 23:25:00Z; 20.2°N 86.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 98 ft; Wind: ENE (64°) @ 54 mph; Max Wind: 55 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #14: 23:25:30Z; 20.1°N 86.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 97 ft; Wind: ENE (62°) @ 54 mph; Max Wind: 54 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #15: 23:26:00Z; 20.1°N 86.7°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 96 ft; Wind: ENE (58°) @ 53 mph; Max Wind: 54 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #16: 23:26:30Z; 20.1°N 86.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 94 ft; Wind: NE (45°) @ 53 mph; Max Wind: 53 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #17: 23:27:00Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 95 ft; Wind: NE (39°) @ 55 mph; Max Wind: 55 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #18: 23:27:30Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 95 ft; Wind: NE (45°) @ 58 mph; Max Wind: 59 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #19: 23:28:00Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 93 ft; Wind: NE (44°) @ 55 mph; Max Wind: 55 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #20: 23:28:30Z; 19.9°N 86.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: NE (45°) @ 55 mph; Max Wind: 55 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 41°F
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#67 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:32 pm

I'm actually surprised it only rose 3 mb... satellite imagery is pretty pathetic.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
NativeFloridaGirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:07 am
Location: In Exile In Lower Alabama

#68 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:Grreat news that is not bombing but weakening.


Best news I've heard all day!

~Beth~
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#69 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:32 pm

Yet people several hours ago were dismissing my thoughts that Emily would be 100 knots at landfall.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 69
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:
Contact mf_dolphin

#70 Postby mf_dolphin » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:34 pm

You may be crowing a little early. Let's remember that this isn't a contest....
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#71 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:34 pm

Scorpion wrote:Yet people several hours ago were dismissing my thoughts that Emily would be 100 knots at landfall.


I still think that's unlikely. 951 mb with this storm supports a Cat 4 still(it had 952 the 1st time it became a Cat 4 before Jamaica).
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
gkrangers

#72 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:34 pm

Scorpion wrote:Yet people several hours ago were dismissing my thoughts that Emily would be 100 knots at landfall.
I still do. Every thought that traverses from your brain to your keyboard is completely baseless.

Pressure is up only 3 millibars since last recon, which I see as a negative. Organization is becoming better.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#73 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:35 pm

I go by trends. Lately, the trend has been for big storms to weaken before landfall. This is clearly happening.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#74 Postby drezee » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:37 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Yet people several hours ago were dismissing my thoughts that Emily would be 100 knots at landfall.
I still do. Every thought that traverses from your brain to your keyboard is completely baseless.

Pressure is up only 3 millibars since last recon, which I see as a negative. Organization is becoming better.


I am thinking that the pressure was higher earlier. Being that the heights are only 9 meters higher and the pressure is 3mb higher, it would normally signify Emily going in the stronger direction.
0 likes   
Top
HKY
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 8:59 pm
Location: Hickory, NC

#75 Postby HKY » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:37 pm

Scorpion wrote:Yet people several hours ago were dismissing my thoughts that Emily would be 100 knots at landfall.


That could be because landfall is still 6 hours away, and Em' is currently over some of the warmest waters in the atlantic. Not to mention her Sat' representaion is tremendously better than several hours ago. The pressure could bomb between now and landfall.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 69
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:
Contact mf_dolphin

#76 Postby mf_dolphin » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:37 pm

Emily has at least gone through an ERC today. It has nothing to do with past hurricanes. Please at least try and base your assumptions on some kind of fact.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#77 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:37 pm

Looks like a cat3 by that data. :roll:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 69
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:
Contact mf_dolphin

#78 Postby mf_dolphin » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:39 pm

Let's keep in mind that a CAT 3 is nothing to sneeze at. The people on the ground where she comes ashore sure won't think that.
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#79 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:40 pm

Scorpion wrote:I go by trends. Lately, the trend has been for big storms to weaken before landfall. This is clearly happening.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20050717.gif

The heat content is WAY higher where Emily is than the northern GOM where Dennis weakened.

Its also not interacting with a large continent like America...the Yucatan is a small land area embedded within a more tropical/moist airmass than the United States is.

The things that weakened Dennis aren't present..so your "trend" is flawed.[/img]
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#80 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:41 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 30
Latest Ob Location: 167 mi SE of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 23:29:00Z; 19.9°N 86.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 89 ft; Wind: NE (41°) @ 55 mph; Max Wind: 56 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #02: 23:29:30Z; 19.9°N 86.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 89 ft; Wind: NE (38°) @ 52 mph; Max Wind: 55 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #03: 23:30:00Z; 19.8°N 86.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 90 ft; Wind: NE (40°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #04: 23:30:30Z; 19.8°N 86.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: NE (40°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #05: 23:31:00Z; 19.8°N 86.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 84 ft; Wind: NE (38°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #06: 23:31:30Z; 19.7°N 86.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 84 ft; Wind: NE (35°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: 23:32:00Z; 19.7°N 86.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 83 ft; Wind: NNE (33°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #08: 23:32:30Z; 19.7°N 86.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 86 ft; Wind: NNE (26°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: 23:33:00Z; 19.6°N 86.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 86 ft; Wind: NNE (20°) @ 36 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #10: 23:33:30Z; 19.6°N 86.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: NNE (15°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #11: 23:34:00Z; 19.6°N 86.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 85 ft; Wind: NNE (12°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #12: 23:34:30Z; 19.5°N 86.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: NNE (12°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #13: 23:35:00Z; 19.5°N 86.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 85 ft; Wind: N (11°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #14: 23:35:30Z; 19.5°N 86.9°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 86 ft; Wind: NNE (12°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #15: 23:36:00Z; 19.4°N 86.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: NNE (13°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #16: 23:36:30Z; 19.4°N 86.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 88 ft; Wind: N (9°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #17: 23:37:00Z; 19.4°N 86.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 89 ft; Wind: N (5°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #18: 23:37:30Z; 19.3°N 86.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 90 ft; Wind: N (4°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #19: 23:38:00Z; 19.3°N 86.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 90 ft; Wind: N (5°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #20: 23:38:30Z; 19.3°N 86.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: N (5°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 378 guests