Emily looks ragged.

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Stormcenter
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Emily looks ragged.

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:36 pm

Emily looks ragged the last few hours. Is she weakening?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#2 Postby djtil » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:38 pm

she definitely weakened but it looks like shes in a steady state period right now in the low 950 mb range and winds around 115mph.
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#3 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:38 pm

She's looked ragged all day... I honestly don't know. Recon still says she's a Cat 4. Who knows at this point.
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#4 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:39 pm

djtil wrote:she definitely weakened but it looks like shes in a steady state period right now in the low 950 mb range and winds around 115mph.


Recon has found winds to support 135-140 mph...
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#5 Postby baitism » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:39 pm

Most cat 4's have visible eyes. I would say 120mph personally.
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#6 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:40 pm

djtil wrote:she definitely weakened but it looks like shes in a steady state period right now in the low 950 mb range and winds around 115mph.

115!? Less than hour ago they reported a 154 mph FL wind, about 135-140 at the surface. Take a look...
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:41 pm

Ivan did not look that Amazing as it was moving just west of the tip of Cuba. So it is not how it looks but what it gots that makes it what it is.
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#8 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:41 pm

baitism wrote:Most cat 4's have visible eyes. I would say 120mph personally.


True... but recon has found winds to support 135-140 mph... low-end Cat 4.
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#9 Postby corpusbreeze » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:42 pm

Dont look like her former self. She has expanded in overall size and this could be a factor in her redevelopment in the Gulf.
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#10 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:42 pm

Not so fast...

Image

Eyewalls reclosing attm it seems
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:42 pm

Brent wrote:
baitism wrote:Most cat 4's have visible eyes. I would say 120mph personally.


True... but recon has found winds to support 135-140 mph... low-end Cat 4.

Exactly. I guess people are avoiding the recon thread or something. Its not pretty looking, but its still has a deadly and destructive force.
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#12 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:43 pm

Just seems like an extended EWRC...
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#13 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:43 pm

Just seems like an extended EWRC...
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#14 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:46 pm

The problem with the Cancun radar is that it can't penetrate that wicked NW eyewall to image the other side of the storm. This makes it look like the SE eye is broken open when in fact it could have a healthy SE eyewall.

It is making it hard to track. Safe to say the south end of Cozumel will get it. Since the storm may be sheared from the south, the true surface eye could be slightly south.
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#15 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:46 pm

Cozumel is gonna get hammered.
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#16 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:47 pm

Uh O. That latest radar frame is north of my track estimate. Looks like Cozumel for sure from that one...
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#17 Postby Droop12 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:47 pm

I believe its safe to say she's been undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle...since the strong inner eyewall has dissipated and only a larger outer wall remain. She may try to intensify one more time before landfall but the ULL in the BOC looks to be hindering her development a bit. Notice the convection on her west side has stood straight up which tells me she has hit a roadblock in her development. We'll see what comes from landfall. I have 2 buddies down there now getting ready to intercept Emily. Hope they have found a good spot for great video, despite it being nighttime.
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#18 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:48 pm

I see some heavier rain is just starting to move over the radar site itself, so there could be some attenuation. Plus its a good distance which always hurts.

As it gets closer, and of course with more recon, we should get a good handle on the exact characteristics of the eyewall.
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:50 pm

Pressure up to 955 mbs at latest vortex message.
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#20 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:51 pm

Pressure is now up to 955 so some slight weakening may be underway. This could come in as a strong 3.
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