upper level low in bay of campeche

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jwayne
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#81 Postby jwayne » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:32 pm

dwg71 wrote:theres nothing to discuss, its not going to shoot it nnw or nw, the path is clear NHC addresses ridge weakness only bring it to extreme southern texas. SE TX is out of the woods...


well, I guess there goes 76 wasted posts on this thread!! there's nothing to discuss? how about a storm slowing to a crawl with nowhere to go except north unless the ull backs out? I think that is at least worthy of a phrase or two.

come on, now!!
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dwg71
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#82 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:33 pm

corpus north, grab your boards, im going tuesday afternoon evening, should get 7-9 foot swells... its going to be awesome. Im going to pirates beach...
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#83 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:33 pm

dhweather wrote:It seems the ULL has slowed the forward progress of Emily quite a bit.


What's this mean for steering?
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dwg71
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#84 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:35 pm

jwayne wrote:
dwg71 wrote:theres nothing to discuss, its not going to shoot it nnw or nw, the path is clear NHC addresses ridge weakness only bring it to extreme southern texas. SE TX is out of the woods...


well, I guess there goes 76 wasted posts on this thread!! there's nothing to discuss? how about a storm slowing to a crawl with nowhere to go except north unless the ull backs out? I think that is at least worthy of a phrase or two.

come on, now!!


76 in this thread and about 250 in the past 24 hours suggesting that the upper tx coast had anything more than a .05 % chance of emily paying a visit. THe path has not been problematic, at all...
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#85 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:39 pm

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html


Emily has barely moved...at all...the last 10 frames. I cant wait to see the NHC discussion.
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#86 Postby cccmachine » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:39 pm

But it has been entertaining reading all of them.
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#87 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:46 pm

cccmachine wrote:But it has been entertaining reading all of them.


lol agreed, emily has moved, eye is not detectable using wv or ir, its moving just fine.
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#88 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:49 pm

dwg71 wrote:
cccmachine wrote:But it has been entertaining reading all of them.


lol agreed, emily has moved, eye is not detectable using wv or ir, its moving just fine.


Is it really or just an illusion you are seeing? LOL!!!!!!!!!!
Last edited by Stormcenter on Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#89 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:51 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
cccmachine wrote:But it has been entertaining reading all of them.


lol agreed, emily has moved, eye is not detectable using wv or ir, its moving just fine.


Is it really or just an illusion you are seeing?


see update 295 at 18 mph...
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jwayne
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#90 Postby jwayne » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:52 pm

doesn't take a genius to figure out Emily is not moving 20mph anymore.
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#91 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:52 pm

dhweather wrote:It seems the ULL has slowed the forward progress of Emily quite a bit.
ULLs don't slow or steer surface-oriented tropical systems, they shear them. Of course, an ULL may be in existence merely as the representation of boundaries of several high-pressures regions (whose circulation drives the tropical systems).
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#92 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:53 pm

The ULL shear is pushing the convection over the eye. It is still moving, trust me.
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#93 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:54 pm

jwayne wrote:doesn't take a genius to figure out Emily is not moving 20mph anymore.


your right its 18, and i didnt stay at a holiday inn express last night.
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Stormcenter
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#94 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:54 pm

dwg71 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
cccmachine wrote:But it has been entertaining reading all of them.


lol agreed, emily has moved, eye is not detectable using wv or ir, its moving just fine.


Is it really or just an illusion you are seeing?


see update 295 at 18 mph...


Yes I read that.
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#95 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:55 pm

I just wish we all can stop arguing. :roll:
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#96 Postby boca » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:56 pm

If the ULL is there how can Emily still head in that direction without being pushed more NW instead of WNW?
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#97 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:57 pm

boca wrote:If the ULL is there how can Emily still head in that direction without being pushed more NW instead of WNW?


ULLs dont steer storms they shear them. NHC makes no mention of ull having any impact on direction only intensity..
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#98 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:01 pm

So what it going to just plow through it?
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jwayne
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#99 Postby jwayne » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:01 pm

ull can steer a hurricane.

i'm going to bed.

i live in a holiday inn express.
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#100 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:02 pm

dwg71 wrote:
boca wrote:If the ULL is there how can Emily still head in that direction without being pushed more NW instead of WNW?


ULLs dont steer storms they shear them. NHC makes no mention of ull having any impact on direction only intensity..


dude, ok....The ULL was SUPPOSE to leave over a day ago....well guess what its STILL there....I am begining to think they are overseeing things to be consistant...WE will see tom...If I don't see a more Wstd jog over land...then yeah...
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