upper level low in bay of campeche

[dwg71]

So what it going to just plow through it?

read discussion, it mentions a WEAK ULL, and they only mention its affect on intensity not direction..

[Normandy]

Ive just heard from Pro mets that ULLs cant slow storms (yes and shear them as well).

[dwg71]

If the ULL is there how can Emily still head in that direction without being pushed more NW instead of WNW?

ULLs dont steer storms they shear them. NHC makes no mention of ull having any impact on direction only intensity..

dude, ok....The ULL was SUPPOSE to leave over a day ago....well guess what its STILL there....I am begining to think they are overseeing things to be consistant...WE will see tom...If I don't see a more Wstd jog over land...then yeah...

Then yeah what?

I dont follow..We are 48+ hours from landfall, dont count on them being out of the cone...let alone off by 400 miles..

[deltadog03]

i will say this...and then i am done on this topic....this ULL was seen and was suppose to leave a couple of days ago...well, it DID NOT....they say its weaking or moving...guess again...and yes, ULL do stear tropical systems as well as upper ridges...well, if you would look at the sat or WV of the GOM you can CLEARLY see the ULL is pushing her more to almost NW and the flow is directly to the NW or NNW to TX....can't argue with that...and NHC shows a more Wstd movement over land...we will see...im done!!!!

[boca]

ULL can affect steering patterns of storms as well as high pressure systems, its back to basics meteorology 101.

[deltadog03]

ULL can affect steering patterns of storms as well as high pressure systems, its back to basics meteorology 101.

thank you boca!!! a basic rule my met professor said...Jeff Haby, look at the models for guidance, but always look at the currents...VERY good point

[dwg71]

i will say this...and then i am done on this topic....this ULL was seen and was suppose to leave a couple of days ago...well, it DID NOT....they say its weaking or moving...guess again...and yes, ULL do stear tropical systems as well as upper ridges...well, if you would look at the sat or WV of the GOM you can CLEARLY see the ULL is pushing her more to almost NW and the flow is directly to the NW or NNW to TX....can't argue with that...and NHC shows a more Wstd movement over land...we will see...im done!!!!

Just look at the NHC discussion, and previous points NW is a 315 heading, since 2PM storm has move .9 N 2.1W thats south of wnw. you can state your tired "look at clouds in gulf" arguement to convince yourself that this storm is going to go NW or NNW... the rest of us arent buying. Trust the NHC...

[boca]

Watch the models,but if I were you in Texas prepare now take it from 2004 hurricane ravaged Florida.

[dwg71]

Watch the models,but if I were you in Texas prepare now take it from 2004 hurricane ravaged Florida.

I live in Houston area, the only thing Im preparing for is a trip to the beach tuesday evening..

[Stormcenter]

i will say this...and then i am done on this topic....this ULL was seen and was suppose to leave a couple of days ago...well, it DID NOT....they say its weaking or moving...guess again...and yes, ULL do stear tropical systems as well as upper ridges...well, if you would look at the sat or WV of the GOM you can CLEARLY see the ULL is pushing her more to almost NW and the flow is directly to the NW or NNW to TX....can't argue with that...and NHC shows a more Wstd movement over land...we will see...im done!!!!

Just look at the NHC discussion, and previous points NW is a 315 heading, since 2PM storm has move .9 N 2.1W thats south of wnw. you can state your tired "look at clouds in gulf" arguement to convince yourself that this storm is going to go NW or NNW... the rest of us arent buying. Trust the NHC...

Can't we all just get along?

[jwayne]

sorry, but it has not been moving 18 mph the last 3 hours.

this bed sure is warm at the express!!

[stormie_skies]

I dont see why all the hostility is neccessary. Agree to disagree, and someone can eat crow in a day or so.....

[boca]

Crow is good as long as its well done.

[deltadog03]

I dont see why all the hostility is neccessary. Agree to disagree, and someone can eat crow in a day or so.....

I am really trying to get along...im just pointing out facts right now, and i am being bashed but, its cool

[HouTXmetro]

[quote="stormie_skies"]I dont see why all the hostility is neccessary. Agree to disagree, and someone can eat crow in a day or so.....[/quote

Thanks, no need to jump down people throats over this.

[jwayne]

Crow is good as long as its well done.

it's a little lean, but dip it in butter and it helps.

[jkt21787]

I don't know whether these TX people are worried about this storm, or honestly hoping and wishing for it, but if you live north of Corpus I don't think you'll need to worry much about it if at all.

If you live south of there, you definitely need to keep an eye on it. The ULL will be more of a shear producer rather than track changer, but it could allow just a nudge northward track.

I still see nothing suggesting a Texas landfall though, although it could be close, but Southern Texas will still see impacts, and the hurricane watch will likely go up.

It is so juvenile to argue over something like this.

[stormie_skies]

I dont see why all the hostility is neccessary. Agree to disagree, and someone can eat crow in a day or so.....

I am really trying to get along...im just pointing out facts right now, and i am being bashed but, its cool

I know, and I think you are raising some good points... I wish people didnt have to get flak for raising questions that arent addressed directly by the NHC..... we are all here to learn from each other, not to shut others down when they express an opinion....JMHO

[Stratosphere747]

Mods...

About time to lock this thread...

[jkt21787]

Mods...

About time to lock this thread...

agreed. I never thought the arguing about jogs, wobbles, the track and all could get worse than Dennis, but it has.