99l developing convection along wave further south..........

[Dean4Storms]

May have to watch this one yet. Convection has developed along the wave of 99l further SW just NE of the Leewards.........


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[boca]

Why is it moving SW?

[Dean4Storms]

Why is it moving SW?

Looks like outflows to me and probably driven by the Atlantic ridge, but if these outflows persist and grow it could get interesting.

[boca]

There's something out there because its not dissapating at night. The Miami discussions says its a weak tropical wave that will pass S FL Thurs.

[Dean4Storms]

There's something out there because its not dissapating at night. The Miami discussions says its a weak tropical wave that will pass S FL Thurs.

Reminds me of a weak wave that once look to be finished and forgotten and then became Andrew.

[boca]

Everybody has written off 99L except for me and you ,its still there even though its pathetic looking.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Erika of 2003...Another trick little thing.

[boca]

Don't remember Erika of 2003.

[Dean4Storms]

It has along way to go to become anything, but along the same wave to it's SE we also have convection growing and moving toward the convection I mentined above. Will be interesting to see what transpires when the two areas come together if they do at all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


It hit florida as a strong distrabance/deperssion then moved into the gulf of mexico. To hit Mexico as a cat1 hurricane. This system nearly came of the box.

[Thunder44]

It looks like the disturbance split. One piece went NE leaving another piece of energy behind. I don't think it will develop anytime soon though.

[boca]

I remember it now it was just South of Grand Bahama and the local met in West Palm said it was a depression before the NHC classified it as a storm in the Gulf.

[Tropicswatcher]

Is just the wave interacting with the TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) as San Juan Discussion says:
"AS WAS DISCUSSED BEFORE...MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...WHILE THE TUTT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO ALSO MOVE
WESTWARD. BOTH...THE WAVE IN THE TRADE WINDS AND THE TUTT WILL
INTERACT...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GOOD THETA-E
AND OMEGA VALUES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
TROPICAL WAVE...BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY"

[EDR1222]

Looks like with the strong high pressure in place it may move more WSW toward the islands.

I don't think its chances are good, but considering the way this season is going, would it really surprise anyone if this thing ends up developing into something?

[Dean4Storms]

Is just the wave interacting with the TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) as San Juan Discussion says:
"AS WAS DISCUSSED BEFORE...MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...WHILE THE TUTT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO ALSO MOVE
WESTWARD. BOTH...THE WAVE IN THE TRADE WINDS AND THE TUTT WILL
INTERACT...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GOOD THETA-E
AND OMEGA VALUES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
TROPICAL WAVE...BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY"

Yes, the TUTT is visible in WV loops to the north of the Islands but appears to be moving west. The convection along the wave is spreading SW and if it continues to grow and spread SW the TUTT could actually help in cyclogenesis in the early stages by helping to vent the convection. Still has along way to anything like that but will need to be watched.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like with the strong high pressure in place it may move more WSW toward the islands.

I don't think its chances are good, but considering the way this season is going, would it really surprise anyone if this thing ends up developing into something?

Exactly, it has been a banner year.

[djones65]

The remnant low level circulation is riding slightly north of due west under strong upper level northerly flow. The weak low level vortmax is centered approximately 24.3N and 61.0W moving 285 degrees at 15 mph.
The convection noted to the southeast is associated with the interaction of a low level easterly surge and the upper level trof extending southward from the upper level low near 28N 54W.
This remnant low will likely gradually spin down and dissipate within the next 24 hours or so in my humble opinion.

[Hurricaneman]

I dont really think this one is dead yet, it still has a slight chance