Who's in the clear?

[Brent]

Corpus north.

ditto

double ditto

Can we tripple ditto...lol, I didnt check below this post so this might be Quadruple ditto...lol

I said ditto too so that's quadruplets!!

[Hurricaneman]

Corpus north

[Swimdude]

Voted the middle one, but I believe it to be Corpus, north.

[Nimbus]

I hope my US landfall prediction is a lot further left than my Mexico landfall prediction..
It is particularly difficult to predict the track of storms traveling nw into the western gulf over the Yucatan.
There are many variable factors to consider for the second landfall.
Emily is now above 20 N so she has an increasing tendency to recurve right that compounds.
The easterlies often diminish in the western gulf so systems lose their western motion vector.
As hurricanes come off the coast of the Yucatan and intensify we often see a shift in vector.
As Emily moves around the periphery of the steering ridge the steering may be more to the right or left the further north she goes.
A small error in the estimation of any of these variables leads to huge compounding errors at the end of the track.
To make things even worse the coast of Texas curves east like a banana.
I think Emily's track could end up as far right as the northern gulf if she intensifies enough and bucks the steering ridge.

[Anonymous]

Funny you should say that:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

ALL EYES ON HURRICANE EMILY. THE ETA SOLUTION IS ONCE AGAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH EMILY THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE ETA SOLUTION...WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS AN INTERESTING ONE GIVEN THE PREVIOUS CONSISTENCY FROM THAT MODEL WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.

Just a tidbit from the afd.

[canegrl04]

Now that Emily is moving in a more NW direction,everyone from TX?LA border to Miami

[Nimbus]

One more thought on models which I may not have stated clearly.
This is the kind of track that models have problems with because of asymptotic derivatives so don't be surprised if we get major changes in the forecast.

[Normandy]

Id anywhere from Tampico to where Bret hit is where landfall will occur.

[dwg71]

One more thought on models which I may not have stated clearly.
This is the kind of track that models have problems with because of asymptotic derivatives so don't be surprised if we get major changes in the forecast.

Be surprised, its not going to happen. They have not had any problems with emily's track, for 5 days now. It will hit the cone...

[stormie_skies]

I hope my US landfall prediction is a lot further left than my Mexico landfall prediction..
It is particularly difficult to predict the track of storms traveling nw into the western gulf over the Yucatan.
There are many variable factors to consider for the second landfall.
Emily is now above 20 N so she has an increasing tendency to recurve right that compounds.
The easterlies often diminish in the western gulf so systems lose their western motion vector.
As hurricanes come off the coast of the Yucatan and intensify we often see a shift in vector.
As Emily moves around the periphery of the steering ridge the steering may be more to the right or left the further north she goes.
A small error in the estimation of any of these variables leads to huge compounding errors at the end of the track.
To make things even worse the coast of Texas curves east like a banana.
I think Emily's track could end up as far right as the northern gulf if she intensifies enough and bucks the steering ridge.

Very interesting post ....so many variables to consider......