Cozumel--Getting Close!!!

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gk1
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Cozumel--Getting Close!!!

#1 Postby gk1 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:15 pm

According to the latest radar pics, Cozumel it going the get slammed with what looks like the core of this storm!!!!
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#2 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:20 pm

Sure looks like it... You can't even see the latest data from wunderground in Cozumel. Looks like they'll get the direct hit.
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:27 pm

Safe bet, the hard winds seem to have collected in that part of the storm. Cozumel it is.
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#4 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:05 am

TWC says recon placed the eye just south of Cozumel. West eyewall, or center, should pass over Tulum on Yucatan in a short while.

Southern Cozumel will take the brunt.
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#5 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:07 am

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

What the....is the eye going over cozumel or are my eyes decieving me.
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#6 Postby swimaster20 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:08 am

Normandy wrote:http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

What the....is the eye going over cozumel or are my eyes decieving me.


I thought it was going over Cozumel also. :?:
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#7 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:16 am

The eye isn't visible on that shot. It is covered by clouds. It is a few miles south of Cozumel.
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#8 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:22 am

Guess again...

Image
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#9 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:23 am

Thats is NOT good. Cancun is now in danger.
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Derek Ortt

#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:23 am

thats not the eye.

the center appears to currently be between Cozumel and Tulum
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#11 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:24 am

That dot next to Cozumel is just warmer cloud tops, possibly induced by a little bit of dry air from the Yucatan.

The center is probably passing/passed due south of Cozumel and they are getting absolutely RAKED right now.
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#12 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:24 am

Hopefully...Cancun doesnt need the eyewall too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
That loops is decieving then.
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Derek Ortt

#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:28 am

loop is not deceiving

the eye missed Cozumel by about 7 miles
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#14 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:31 am

Derek Ortt wrote:loop is not deceiving

the eye missed Cozumel by about 7 miles


Yea posted that before i found that out.
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#15 Postby rtd2 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:34 am

uhmmm Very close to where Gilbert came in at..I know this is NO Gilbert ..Thank Goodness...And I'm not going to Waste the space and post the Gilbert L/F Picture again..But you can Judge for Yourself Here! 8th post Down....IR sat.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c&start=20
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#16 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:36 am

No Gilbert came in a bit north.
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#17 Postby tallywx » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:37 am

I plotted the center as fixed by recon at 1:06 a.m. eastern time using google earth. Indeed, the center is slightly SW of Cozumel. Cozumel got the NE eyewall. Looks like Tulum will get the western eyewall shortly.

Image
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#18 Postby rtd2 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:39 am

Normandy wrote:No Gilbert came in a bit north.



Yeah you were On that Thread Normandy That Dots not Emilys Eye? ..Is it even close? say 50 -60 miles?
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#19 Postby rtd2 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:40 am

tallywx wrote:I plotted the center as fixed by recon at 1:06 a.m. eastern time using google earth. Indeed, the center is slightly SW of Cozumel. Cozumel got the NE eyewall. Looks like Tulum will get the western eyewall shortly.

Image



Oh nice work Tally I can see I missed it ...Emily's South of where Gilbert came across...Not by Much though!
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#20 Postby tallywx » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:41 am

I just used the straight-line path drawing tool on google earth, which shows that Emily's center was 8.50 miles from the very southern tip of Cozumel at that recon. fix. With an eye diameter of 15 miles, that means that the NE eyewall hit Cozumel dead on.
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