Hurry up ridge

#1 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:21 am

I sure would like to see Emily heading more west than she is right now, Hopefully just because of land interaction but she still seems to be jogging to the right of NHC track and the plume of moisture to her north has me a little concerned.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:23 am

Storms have done some weird things coming off that Yuctan. If the ridge is weaker then forecasted then better start packing. We will know later today.

I really don't think it will get that far north...

KatDaddy · #3 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:28 am

The ridge is in place and contiues to build across the N GOM.

#4 Postby **EDR1222** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:36 am

KatDaddy wrote:The ridge is in place and contiues to build across the N GOM.

For now, but it is forecast to weaken slightly with the passage of the trough per the 5 AM NHC discussion:

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN
A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE COULD ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE
TRACK. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE INFLUENCES SHOULD DIMINISH IN
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE TRACK SHOULD THEN BEND BACK TOWARD
THE LEFT. THE GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM...IS
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS
ON THE NORTHERN EGDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IN FACT HAS OUTPERFORMED BOTH
THE NOGAPS AND GFS WITH THIS CYCLONE. NONE OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
THAT THE AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 140 NMI...SUCH A
LANDFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:44 am

So the worst that will happen is that it will go NW for 24 hours then make the more west turn? Is that correct or no?

#6 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:45 am

KatDaddy wrote:The ridge is in place and contiues to build across the N GOM.

Do you have a link that shows real time press. heights in this area.

Normandy · #7 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:50 am

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Whether or not the ridge is building, Emily is emerging into the Gulf sooner than expected.

#8 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:52 am

Normandy wrote:http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Whether or not the ridge is building, Emily is emerging into the Gulf sooner than expected.

Correct. Just watch the convection pattern.

Normandy · #9 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:53 am

Yea, movement from here on is crucial.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:55 am

It looks like its moving northwestward....It should be off shore with in 2 hours.

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:00 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looks like its moving northwestward....It should be off shore with in 2 hours.

Looks as if it will not be that long even.

KatDaddy · #12 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:18 am

The ridge is here and building

From the Hou-Gal AFD:

500 MB SHEAR AXIS IS BECOMING HARDER TO FIND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAS BUILT WEST. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE ALSO MUCH HIGHER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

canegrl04 · #13 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:18 am

Its overcast and lightly raining where I am . Its a race against time.Emily may have all day to move NW

BTW: local forecast calls for 30% chance of rain on Tuesday

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:53 am

It's offshore a lot earlier than I expected and it held together very well... this should have absolutely no trouble strengthening, possibly back to a Cat 4.

That said South Texas is where it's going... current motion takes it just north of Brownsville.

Normandy · #15 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:55 am

I really hope it turns west, because Brownsville's infrastructure will be damaged badly.

#16 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:57 am

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that a Cat-4 hitting near Brownsville or just north of Brownsville would be a terrible disaster.

There are tens of thousands of folks living in colonias in the Rio Grande Valley ... homes cobbled together ... that would just get blown to bits. It would be absolutely awful! :eek:

Normandy · #17 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:58 am

It would actually be worst if it hit just south of the mouth of the Rio Grande, as Brownsville would get the N quad.

Stratosphere747 · #18 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:58 am

You can clearly see that the UL is nudging it a bit NW though it is starting to weaken and back off into Mexico. Look for the true WNW track to begin soon.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

#19 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:00 am

Hope you're right Strat ...

Hurry up ridge

Hurry up ridge

Who is online