Emily strengthening, weakening or maintaining at landfall?

[Steve]

This was always a problematic issue with the 2nd landfall. The NHC said they thought it would emerge and probably reintensify, however, it didn't stay all that long over the Yucatan.

I caught Bastardi's video this morning and he stated that ridging would be building overtop as the ULL moves off SW from the Bay of Campeche (per 200mb GFS). He showed how the storm was expanding on its western side. And while it has done some of that on the northern and western sides, the SW is still fairly weak looking (assuming that would have to do with whatever shear is left down there from the ULL).

I would think it's probably going to re-strengthen some and perhaps tighten up a bit, but I'm not convinced how low the pressure could get this time. The water in the vicinity is in the mid-80's so I guess the fuel is available.

Steve

[djtil]

i think she will under go rapid intensification at 24-48 hours......will maintain until then....i also doubt recon finds her as strong as the offical advisory.

[Steve]

I don't think she will be either djitl. I checked on the SSD with the forecast points and they show "3" at landfall. I haven't looked at the advisories, but that sounds about right to me seeing as the structure is basically still intact.

Steve

[patiloman]

I'm new to the site, any chance I could get a link or something to Bastardi's video? I've been tracking and watching hurricanes since I was in the fifth grade, and my dad introduced me to this site. Any chance I could get someone with experience to help me out with sites with vids or loops to look at, or some with important info?

[dwg71]

go to yahoo.com and look in the weather area, you should find it there...

[Swimdude]

Definately strengthening. From 100 mph, possibly to near cat. 4 once again.

[baitism]

Farther north would mean more time over very warm water. Which would not be good at all.

[Brent]

I don't think she will be either djitl. I checked on the SSD with the forecast points and they show "3" at landfall. I haven't looked at the advisories, but that sounds about right to me seeing as the structure is basically still intact.

Steve

Official forecast takes her up to 100 kt or 115 mph at landfall.

[EDR1222]

Looks like not to much in the short term. As of 2 PM she is barely a hurricane with 75 mph winds. I think the ULL took more of a toll on her than they thought it would. But the NHC does say conditions should become favorable for strengthening by tomorrow, and it looks like the ULL is finally moving off to the southwest on wv imagery.

[Swimdude]

Official forecast takes her up to 100 kt or 115 mph at landfall.

That would take one heck of a jump in intensity... But then again, we saw Dennis; it is possible.

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind...it had 36 hours over water...this could happen:::

~ 75 mph
~ 80 mph
~ 90 mph
~105 mph
~115 mph

That is about 10 hours...things can change quick.

[mike18xx]

Official forecast takes her up to 100 kt or 115 mph at landfall.

That would take one heck of a jump in intensity... But then again, we saw Dennis; it is possible.

It's very possible; storms can intensify explosively near the Mexican coast:

[mike18xx]

From satellite appearance, slowed speed, and SSTs, I'd say there's an at least reasonable chance Emily could make it all the way back to cat-4.

[tailgater]

From satellite appearance, slowed speed, and SSTs, I'd say there's an at least reasonable chance Emily could make it all the way back to cat-4.

I'll agree with you again mike, might may it all the back to a *** 5(unconfirmed). SSH, I didn't say that out loud.