ULL getting the best of Emily

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HouTXmetro
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ULL getting the best of Emily

#1 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:15 am

That feisty ULL is really putting the hurt on EM right now. The dry air is really getting wrapped into the circulation. The ULL still doesn't appear to be in a rush to go anywhere.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#2 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:22 am

I noticed this too. I believe it's possible that Emily could weaken further before re-strengthening... Like in the case of Dennis.
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#3 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:47 am

yeah, this ULL is not moving at all....depending on how long that sits there it won't allow here to move due west...I would expect a WNW with wobbles of NW....
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#4 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:09 pm

The ULL is slowly backing SW. Conditions will become more favorable by tomorrow.
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#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:11 pm

Not good
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#6 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:17 pm

Should start up again any moment...
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#7 Postby becca1695 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:53 pm

Real weather newbie here, but doesn't the track look as though it is headed more NNW than forecasted? What is going to prevent Emily from going more into/towards Texas than the NHC says?
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#8 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:55 pm

becca1695 wrote:Real weather newbie here, but doesn't the track look as though it is headed more NNW than forecasted? What is going to prevent Emily from going more into/towards Texas than the NHC says?


The ridge to the north will build back in. It's really not off the forecast track by more than a few miles...
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#9 Postby dwg71 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:56 pm

becca1695 wrote:Real weather newbie here, but doesn't the track look as though it is headed more NNW than forecasted? What is going to prevent Emily from going more into/towards Texas than the NHC says?


Welcome aboard, the high pressure ridge will prevent her coming to far into TX, the heading of the center of the storm has been WNW and is forcast to stay on that path for 24-36 hours eventually giving way to a WWNW heading.
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#10 Postby becca1695 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:57 pm

Thanks for the quick response. Will the ridge build back in fast enough? How soon will it build, and will it build strong enough to sway her track?
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#11 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:57 pm

It's hooking WNW into Mexico right on track.


The Gulf just north of Yucatan possesses cool upwelling SST's. Just to the west they heat up again...
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#12 Postby becca1695 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:59 pm

Thank you everyone! I have learned so much lurking in these forums!
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#13 Postby EDR1222 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:11 pm

Something is getting to her. At 2:00 PM the NHC is reporting winds down to 75 mph. Looks like conditions will become more favorable tomorrow however.
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#14 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:13 pm

EDR1222 wrote:Something is getting to her. At 2:00 PM the NHC is reporting winds down to 75 mph. Looks like conditions will become more favorable tomorrow however.

The only thing that got to her to cause the decrease to 75 mph was the Yucatan. The 100 mph was an estimate, and it was a great overestimate of post-Yucatan intensity. This just weakened a lot more than that. Its moving into deeper, warmer waters with increasingly favorable conditions, so there should be no reason not to see reintensification.
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#15 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:13 pm

becca1695 wrote:Thanks for the quick response. Will the ridge build back in fast enough? How soon will it build, and will it build strong enough to sway her track?


Image

As you can see... even if it stays on it's current track it would still hit at the Rio Grande so there's no danger of it going farther north than that.
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#16 Postby becca1695 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:17 pm

Okay, since you are all being so great in answering my newbie questions, here's another -- could Emily (or any other hurricane) cross Mexico, end up in the Pacific, and become a named storm there? I know it would really have alot of land to cross over, but could this ever happen? Has it ever happened?
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#17 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:18 pm

becca1695 wrote:Okay, since you are all being so great in answering my newbie questions, here's another -- could Emily (or any other hurricane) cross Mexico, end up in the Pacific, and become a named storm there? I know it would really have alot of land to cross over, but could this ever happen? Has it ever happened?

I seriously doubt this. Mexico will tear this things to shreds, not to mention when it crosses over it will be in very cool waters compared to where most of the EPAC storms form, so I will say no.
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#18 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:19 pm

but, if that ULL is still there than she won't get to a major...imo...yes, i know the models forecast it to leave...but, they have been saying that for a day now...hasn't done it yet
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#19 Postby djtil » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:29 pm

Has it ever happened?


yes it has technically happened.....although what survived was just remnants the NHC still kept the same name when it regenerated.
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