Hurricane Emily
Unofficial Forecast # 7
Monday July 18, 2005 12:30pm Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO
Emily made landfall near Cozumel, MX as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 115 kt, and has since weakened down to 85 kt, a Category 2. However, Emily should regain major hurricane intensity over the western Gulf of Mexico.
A ridge of high pressure to the north of Emily should keep it on a general west-northwest track over the next 24-36 hours. A weakness in the ridge may allow some more northwest movement. After 36 hours, the ridge should fill back in, and Emily should be pushed back west. My track is further north of the NHC track, due to the fact that I believe Emily will deepen and move more poleward.
As for intensification, waters are extremely warm...upper level winds are favorable...so I believe steady intensification into a Category 3, perhaps a Category 4 hurricane before landfall should occur.
12 Hours: 22.8 N/ 91.7 W - 95 kt
24 Hours: 23.9 N/ 94.1 W - 105 kt
36 Hours: 25.2 N/ 96.7 W - 115 kt
48 Hours: INLAND - 30 kt
