Woah

[hicksta]

She just bombed and slowed down much

[mf_dolphin]

"Bombed" isn't what I'd call it. She has fired some decent convection as expected but tha's about the extent of it right now. We'll have a better idea of what's happening when the next recon bird gets there.

[hicksta]

Did you see her slow down too?? or is it my eyes

[carve]

please help me learn>>>>>>>>>> is emily going pretty much nw now or is it just me..looks like Texas coast if this keeps up

[mike18xx]

I don't expect anything exciting from the next recon, or at all until the outher-ring doughnut is firing all the way around and contracting. (Then she'll intensify rapidly, IMO.)

[HURAKAN]

Emily is feeling the warm waters, but the eye is very wide and ragged-looking. Still, she has some time to organize and can do it pretty quick over waters >30 C.

[cycloneye]

Yes the eye has to contract to a more smaller one to have a chance to be a cat2/3.

[mike18xx]

Yes the eye has to contract to a more smaller one to have a chance to be a cat2/3.

Not necessarily; remember Jeanne last year?

She'll need a smaller one to have a chance to be a cat4/5.

[Air Force Met]

Emily is feeling the warm waters, but the eye is very wide and ragged-looking. Still, she has some time to organize and can do it pretty quick over waters >30 C.

The thing with a large eye is troublesome. First...it cleared out pretty quickly. Second, it has a lot of rooom to contract...so lots of room to deepen. Third, the larger the eye...the greater the impact of strong winds. LArge eyes effect a much larger area with their strong winds (I.E. Jeanne) than small ones do...like Dennis.

[Raebie]

It cleared out very quickly. Should be interesting to see the 8pm update.

[Stratosphere747]

Emily is feeling the warm waters, but the eye is very wide and ragged-looking. Still, she has some time to organize and can do it pretty quick over waters >30 C.

The thing with a large eye is troublesome. First...it cleared out pretty quickly. Second, it has a lot of rooom to contract...so lots of room to deepen. Third, the larger the eye...the greater the impact of strong winds. LArge eyes effect a much larger area with their strong winds (I.E. Jeanne) than small ones do...like Dennis.

I was about to ask that AFM. To be specific about our area, not so much the wind I'm worried about, but the rise in wave action?

[Air Force Met]

Yes the eye has to contract to a more smaller one to have a chance to be a cat2/3.

Not necessarily; remember Jeanne last year?

She'll need a smaller one to have a chance to be a cat4/5.

Not necessarily there either (not that I think she will be a 4/5...but)...remember Isabel?

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
CONFIRM THAT ISABEL IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. MAXIMUM OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 156 KT AT 700 MB...SUPPORTING SURFACE
WINDS NEAR 140 KT. THE EYE IS 30 NM WIDE WITH A CLOSED WALL AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 140
KT...WHICH AGREES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

[mf_dolphin]

please help me learn>>>>>>>>>> is emily going pretty much nw now or is it just me..looks like Texas coast if this keeps up

It's definitely north of the projected track. Whether this is due to the eye reforming a little to the north, a wobble or a legitimate track adjustment will only be determined over the next few hours. It won't take a huge shift to make it the most southern portion of Texas but I doubt a huge track shift.

[mike18xx]

The thing with a large eye is troublesome. First...it cleared out pretty quickly.

Agreed. The quickly elimination of the remnant core of the original pre-landfall eye isn't good news for coastal dwellers; I've observed in Pacific typhoons cases where storms developed an outer ring around a disassociated remnant core which stubbornly refused to die and be "replaced" -- such storms remained weak for extended periods of time.

[Air Force Met]

Emily is feeling the warm waters, but the eye is very wide and ragged-looking. Still, she has some time to organize and can do it pretty quick over waters >30 C.

The thing with a large eye is troublesome. First...it cleared out pretty quickly. Second, it has a lot of rooom to contract...so lots of room to deepen. Third, the larger the eye...the greater the impact of strong winds. LArge eyes effect a much larger area with their strong winds (I.E. Jeanne) than small ones do...like Dennis.

I was about to ask that AFM. To be specific about our area, not so much the wind I'm worried about, but the rise in wave action?

Tides maybe 2 feet above normal. ALready they are about 1/2 foot above normal to 1 foot above normal as you work down the coast. WAves should be about 6-8 feet at their highest.

[Raebie]

That convection had built pretty rapidly as well.

[hicksta]

Emily is feeling the warm waters, but the eye is very wide and ragged-looking. Still, she has some time to organize and can do it pretty quick over waters >30 C.

The thing with a large eye is troublesome. First...it cleared out pretty quickly. Second, it has a lot of rooom to contract...so lots of room to deepen. Third, the larger the eye...the greater the impact of strong winds. LArge eyes effect a much larger area with their strong winds (I.E. Jeanne) than small ones do...like Dennis.

I was about to ask that AFM. To be specific about our area, not so much the wind I'm worried about, but the rise in wave action?

Tides maybe 2 feet above normal. ALready they are about 1/2 foot above normal to 1 foot above normal as you work down the coast. WAves should be about 6-8 feet at their highest.

Outside the tide is up a good foot. and i live in clear lake in galveston

Kinda looks like she stalled

[mike18xx]

Yes the eye has to contract to a more smaller one to have a chance to be a cat2/3.

Not necessarily; remember Jeanne last year? She'll need a smaller one to have a chance to be a cat4/5.

Not necessarily there either (not that I think she will be a 4/5...but)...remember Isabel?

Definitely, but I think the conditions which allowed Isabel's structure are different than those normally found in the Gulf (i.e., enormous fetch of moderately warm SSTs and no shear versus a mish-mash of downright hot SSTs with land and occasional shear and capped atmospheric conditions). A strong large eye is apparently only sustainable in storms with an enormous wind-field and a large radii of hurr-force winds, and such eyes normally result from an EWRC in conjunction with (as opposed to) intensification. Emily current large not-really-an-eye is just outer banding firming up after the disintigration of the core.

[mike18xx]

Prediction: One thing you're going to see, especially tomorrow, is rapidly expanding tropical-storm-force wind radii -- and it may prompt warnings to go up quicker than people may be expecting.

[Steve]

The maximum hurricane potential map shows that there is plenty of heat potential for a close to or even sub-900mb storm. I wouldn't think Emily could get much lower than 930 at worse case scenario, but notice the heat potential right off the NE Mexican/S Texan coasts.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

The couple of south Texas buoys that are reporting sea temperatures both have it in the 85.5-86 degree range. (I think I got that from 42020 and Ptit2.

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml

Steve