Emily missing her points

[tailgater]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[deltadog03]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

yeah, i also noticed that too...Dr. lyons just mentioned that as well...hey turn on the SLP as well, the ridge is not as strong in the W and NW gulf...

[Steve]

The NHC and most of the models maintain that westward bend toward the end of the track, so I'm thinking it's gonna happen regardless of how it tracks the rest of this evening. JTWC's got Haitang going in around 25.2 on a WNW heading with a kinda-sorta-similar bend (though not as pronounced) on Wednesday. The NHC takes Emily only as far north as 24.5. I think it would have been a more interesting case had Haitang not weakened as much as it did over Taiwan because that could obviously play a factor in whether or not they would have hit at closer latitudes. I still think the Atlantic/Pacific parallel was pretty good for these storms, especially considering we're in July.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

the NHC track is like the GFS track, and the GFS track is BS. The GFS has it moving west, then NW, then west again. This is already moving west. I think the GFS missed the UL to the south

[tw861]

the NHC track is like the GFS track, and the GFS track is BS. The GFS has it moving west, then NW, then west again. This is already moving west. I think the GFS missed the UL to the south

Did you mean already moving NW ? Doesn't look west to me right now.

[Portastorm]

I'm growing more and more concerned that a Texas landfall likelihood grows each moment. If the information on the NHC website is accurate, yes, the storm is further right/north of the points.

With 24 hrs or so left until landfall ... oh man ....

[Derek Ortt]

its been moving closer to 305-310 than 295

[Derek Ortt]

plus, the eye wall is MUCH larger.

They need a Hurricane warning at least south of Port mansfield

[hicksta]

310- more NW because 300 in WNW correct?

[Steve]

Hey Derek,

When are you guys putting out your next forecast product?

Thanks.

Steve

[Portastorm]

plus, the eye wall is MUCH larger.

They need a Hurricane warning at least south of Port mansfield

Well Derek, I hope we don't have to see if your theory about Texans being more unprepared than others is correct. I can tell you that state officials are on the highest state of alert ... but I have talked to some folks in the Rio Grande Valley and while they are watching the hurricane, I don't get a sense of alarm.

I don't wish misery on our Mexican neighbors, but I sure hope this storm makes that left turn tomorrow .. or we could have a real horrible disaster on our hands!

[Brent]

plus, the eye wall is MUCH larger.

They need a Hurricane warning at least south of Port mansfield

I have to agree. Even though I think it's going into Mexico still, I was quite surprised to see no hurricane warning for Texas at 5pm.

[stormie_skies]

I think they should expand the watches and warnings as well... she sure as heck doesn't look like she's going WNW, and I would think when forecasting a sharp turn it would be easy to miss the exact landfall point by a ways .... it wouldn't take Em gaining a lot of lattitude in order for her to make the southern tip of Texas....

[Derek Ortt]

people at padre island this afternoon wer emore concerned about beach weather and didnt make preps.

it is not like pensacola for georges where they made preps the FRIDAY before, then went to the beahc on saturday, then evacuated that afternoon

[Derek Ortt]

next forecast should be out between 9 and 10. trying to get a model running now (had a major computer failure earlier)

[Portastorm]

people at padre island this afternoon wer emore concerned about beach weather and didnt make preps.

it is not like pensacola for georges where they made preps the FRIDAY before, then went to the beahc on saturday, then evacuated that afternoon

While I would like to refute your point from a state pride perspective ... my experience today in talking to some people down there confirms what you say. That is why I'm REALLY getting worried.

[Steve]

It will be interesting to see how the GFS did with the intensity. It missed this part of the track (though I'm pretty sure that an NHC discussion credited it with being the most accurate model for Emily for 72 hours out). But the 18z run really spiked the storm hard in conjunction with landfall.

Steve

[Dean4Storms]

I actually heard a reporter on the radio in Brownsville ask a man if he was prepared for the hurricane and he replied, "what hurricane"? The reporter was dumbfounded and informed him and he said, "really". The man did sound fairly spanish in accent but could understand and speak english clearly.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm starting to think those in brownsville are lost souls and that we are wasting our time trying to alert them. Maybe those in matamoros can be saved. If so, efforts should be made to alert those people

[MGC]

Not surprised, I'm still thinking a near Rio Grande landfall.

I checked the forecast points and yes Emily is tracking north. The pressure plot on the satellite loop are way off. The 1016 isobar plot is off so either the plot is old or the high pressure to the north of Emily is not as strong. Bouy 42001 is reporting 1012 and it is near were the 1016 isobar is..........MGC