Emily makes it 5 out of 5 for the Gulf of Mexico...

[Steve]

Thankfully nothing has been as severe as it could have been with the pulse down of Dennis prior to landfall and the liklihood that Emily won't be as intense as she was down in the Western Caribbean either, though obviously this is subject to change.

So do you see a continued Gulf season, some changes toward the SE or Mid-Atlantic Coasts, more fish spinners or what?

My take is there might be another storm make it across and into the Gulf, but we're probably done until the late season hybrids get kicking in October. No way this pattern can continue, or if it does, no way there's going to be the latent heat in place that anyone's getting hit with a Cat 4 or 5 in the Gulf. Just the same, we've got about 50-55 days until the statistical heart of the season which provides ample opportunity for the waters in the Gulf to heat back up.

I guess we'll see.

Steve

[Swimdude]

The cat 4 pattern can't continue... But I definately say the season can keep whipping out named storms. East coast. It's their turn.

[Mac]

The cat 4 pattern can't continue...

It can. It shouldn't. It defies logic and statistical trends. But then again, since when has mother nature ever given a damn about statistical trends?

[InimanaChoogamaga]

No reason at all that there can't and won't be more powerful Gulf storms. Water temps are warm and we are still very early in the season.

[mike18xx]

The cat 4 pattern can't continue....

There were FIVE in 2002.

[WeatherEmperor]

Perhaps you should have said that it shouldnt continue

<RICKY>

[wxmann_91]

The cat 4 pattern can't continue....

There were FIVE in 2002.

There were five in 1999. There was only one in 2002.

[Brent]

Oh I think it's only beginning... I'm expecting at least one or two long trackers from Africa, across the Caribbean, and into the Gulf, plus stuff that forms in the Caribbean and Gulf itself. Also expect a couple of long trackers to pass over or north of the Islands and threaten the Bahamas and the East Coast...

[PTrackerLA]

Just remember...Lili and Opal hit the northern gulf coast in OCTOBER. We have a longgggg way to go.

[johngaltfla]

No way this pattern can continue, or if it does, no way there's going to be the latent heat in place that anyone's getting hit with a Cat 4 or 5 in the Gulf.

There's no way we'll have 2 Cat 4's in July.

There's no way storms can form in the Atlantic this early.

There's no way 3 storms will make landfall within 100 miles of each other in June and July.

Lot's of "no way's" have gone down in flames this hurricane season thus far....and even the NHC won't wager on climatology this season...remember this quote from a discussion last week:

"THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY."

-NHC 7/12/2005

[Stephanie]

No way this pattern can continue, or if it does, no way there's going to be the latent heat in place that anyone's getting hit with a Cat 4 or 5 in the Gulf.

There's no way we'll have 2 Cat 4's in July.

There's no way storms can form in the Atlantic this early.

There's no way 3 storms will make landfall within 100 miles of each other in June and July.

Lot's of "no way's" have gone down in flames this hurricane season thus far....and even the NHC won't wager on climatology this season...remember this quote from a discussion last week:

"THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY."

-NHC 7/12/2005

Great points!

[mike18xx]

The cat 4 pattern can't continue....

There were FIVE in 2002.

There were five in 1999. There was only one in 2002.

I knew that..... yes, yes, I did....I swear.

[EDR1222]

I get the feeling there will be some more surprises this year.

It will be interesting to see if there are some homegrown systems, maybe around the bahamas and off the Florida east coast as we get into August.

Nothing scientific, but I still feel like both North and South Carolina could see something this year.

[Huckster]

It can still get worse in the Gulf...

[Wnghs2007]

It can still get worse in the Gulf...

EEK I really would not want to be around to see another one of those type seasons, the Oil Prices would rise to very hight levels.

[johngaltfla]

Sigh. Darn near all of those tracks impact my area in almost every year.

We're due, so I'm not suprised. Statistically, we're way overdue.....

[mike18xx]

More busy (recent) Gulf years:

[Hurricaneman]

Im a little concerned for my region for this year