AFD discussions

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deltadog03
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AFD discussions

#1 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 5:19 pm

found this from the houston NWS...here it is...

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH TEXAS AS SHOWN
BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG IF THE LATEST GFS IS
CORRECT.

so, what does everyone take of this??
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stormie_skies
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#2 Postby stormie_skies » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:29 pm

Yeah, I read that....the entire discussion interests me .... it mentions that the weak trough is in place now, and they seem to expect cloud cover and some precip for this area from Em....along with coastal flooding, which means the already-high creek will be all over the place.... :grr:

I would like to think they would be sounding a bigger alarm if they honestly thought she was gonna make much progress up the coast....but perhaps this weakness is what is pulling Em NW towards Brownsville at the moment....NHC did allow for this possibility....
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Dean4Storms
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Re: AFD discussions

#3 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:35 pm

deltadog03 wrote:found this from the houston NWS...here it is...

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH TEXAS AS SHOWN
BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG IF THE LATEST GFS IS
CORRECT.

so, what does everyone take of this??



If the ridge doesn't build then the weakness remains which could cause a longer turn to the NW. A turn more to the NW also means Emily stays over the warm waters several hours longer which also would not be good for south TX.
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gkrangers

#4 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:35 pm

The GFS never has a clue.
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#5 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:57 pm

yeah usually, but NHC says thats the model doing the best right now...whats scary is the GFS is close to brownsville now, and they intialized too far to the west...we will see...
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