Don't think Em will visit Mexico.....

[dixiebreeze]

unless she makes a hard left real soon:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Anonymous]

NHC just extended the warnings farther north.

[GulfHills]

I have to agree......that IR looks scary.

[Stormtrack]

It looks like on the current track, the center would strike land just on the Mexico side of the border. This would not be a good place since this would put the largely populated area of the Rio Grande Valley on the dirty side. The projected path would not be too bad since this would take it to a sparsely populated area in Mexico. I'm sure the folks in the Valley would rather see it go north of them than just south, putting them on the clean side. The dirty side would then be in a reatively uninhabited area of the Texas coast. This is where the massive Allen went in 1980 and one reason that it did less damage than everybody expected. One thing that Allen did do though was cut a channel through Padre Island. Before that it used to be possible for somebody with 4-wheel drive to drive the length of Padre Island from the Corpus end to near Brownsville.

[canegrl04]

I think this could be one time where the NHC is wrong on the forecast strike.They keep insisting on a turn left,but I don't see it happening.If it strikes north of the Mex. border,someones got some splainin' to do

[Brent]

I think this could be one time where the NHC is wrong on the forecast strike.They keep insisting on a turn left,but I don't see it happening.If it strikes north of the Mex. border,someones got some splainin' to do

Uh no...

South Texas has always been in the cone.

That being said, I've learned to never doubt the NHC. I've thought "No way that's gonna turn, what are they doing?!" before and ended up wrong.

[Brent]

If it continues moving the way it's going, it still hits Mexico. NHC's projected path doesn't show a change in motion til after landfall, black line:

[Air Force Met]

That being said, I've learned to never doubt the NHC. I've thought "No way that's gonna turn, what are they doing?!" before and ended up wrong.

They can be wrong...as with Brett in '99...about turns...but they aren't wrong this time. It's not going into Texas. BRO will get some gusty winds and showers...but the center is going into Mexico.

[Pebbles]

Do you think the center will technically be in Mexico but Brownsville might get the eyewall? It is a pretty big eye... Not that I'm wishing that on them! But the radar loop out of brownsville is a little unnerving!

[Brent]

That being said, I've learned to never doubt the NHC. I've thought "No way that's gonna turn, what are they doing?!" before and ended up wrong.

They can be wrong...as with Brett in '99...about turns...but they aren't wrong this time. It's not going into Texas. BRO will get some gusty winds and showers...but the center is going into Mexico.

Oh I agree... Claudette's another one. Everyone makes mistakes, however, they are the best out there. 5 days ago they were showing a landfall within a few miles of where it's going... that is incredible.

[beachbum_al]

I was thinking the same thing this morning while watching the local news here. They keep showing it going into Mexico but it still looks like it is going toward S. Texas.

We have trying to get a hold of my husband's aunt and uncle who live down that way and we haven't been able to. We are hoping that they have left. Oh I thought they live in South Padre Island but it is Wexalco (spelling might be wrong). It is inland from South Padre Island according to my husband. Anyway I am worry for them. They are older (70s). Yes, I am a worry wart!

[Brent]

Do you think the center will technically be in Mexico but Brownsville might get the eyewall? It is a pretty big eye... Not that I'm wishing that on them! But the radar loop out of brownsville is a little unnerving!

It's possible... but the worst weather will defintely miss them.

[Portastorm]

I think this could be one time where the NHC is wrong on the forecast strike.They keep insisting on a turn left,but I don't see it happening.If it strikes north of the Mex. border,someones got some splainin' to do

Uh no...

South Texas has always been in the cone.

That being said, I've learned to never doubt the NHC. I've thought "No way that's gonna turn, what are they doing?!" before and ended up wrong.

Yup I'm getting that way as well Brent. Last night I thought NHC was asleep at the switch as Emily churned more NW than W ... and now this morning she is turning W as they said.

I won't quit my day job! and my hat is off to the NHC.

[Pebbles]

Do you think the center will technically be in Mexico but Brownsville might get the eyewall? It is a pretty big eye... Not that I'm wishing that on them! But the radar loop out of brownsville is a little unnerving!

It's possible... but the worst weather will defintely miss them.

LOL I thought the northern eye wall was 'the worst weather' ...
But looking at radar now it looks like it's heading west and may spare brownville the eyewall.. long as it doens't do a wobble!

[Brent]

Do you think the center will technically be in Mexico but Brownsville might get the eyewall? It is a pretty big eye... Not that I'm wishing that on them! But the radar loop out of brownsville is a little unnerving!

It's possible... but the worst weather will defintely miss them.

LOL I thought the northern eye wall was 'the worst weather' ...
But looking at radar now it looks like it's heading west and may spare brownville the eyewall.. long as it doens't do a wobble!

It is the worst... but the eye is going to make landfall at least 60 miles south of Brownsville, probably closer to 80-90 miles. The northern eyewall will not affect Brownsville in that scenario. I don't even expect them to get hurricane force sustained winds.

[PTrackerLA]

My hat goes off to the NHC on this one. The forecast path I saw 4 days ago looked just like this.

[PTrackerLA]

Do you think the center will technically be in Mexico but Brownsville might get the eyewall? It is a pretty big eye... Not that I'm wishing that on them! But the radar loop out of brownsville is a little unnerving!

It's possible... but the worst weather will defintely miss them.

LOL I thought the northern eye wall was 'the worst weather' ...
But looking at radar now it looks like it's heading west and may spare brownville the eyewall.. long as it doens't do a wobble!

It is the worst... but the eye is going to make landfall at least 60 miles south of Brownsville, probably closer to 80-90 miles. The northern eyewall will not affect Brownsville in that scenario. I don't even expect them to get hurricane force sustained winds.

Definately not hurricane force and sustained tropical storm winds look questionable at this time given the due west movement.

[Pebbles]

Oh I think they will see TS winds ... they go out pretty far.. you can see on radar that even if it stays due west they look to get some rainbands.

[Derek Ortt]

the motion is not due west. Recon is still showing 295.

Last night some were saying it had turned, yet it gained a full degree of lat since then

[jasons2k]

Well, as the storm intensifies, the windfield will shrink.

B-ville may barely get sustained TS force.