H Emily Recon Reports

Astro_man92 · #201 Postby **Astro_man92** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:39 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Dennis stayed over land more then twice as long as Emily. Dennis kept its inner core/tight core to bomb out as fast as it did. While Emily likely weaken from 140 to 70 mph over the Yuctan. That 70 mph is from the 59 knots the hrd data shows off the north coast of the Yuctan. Dennis weaken into a weak cat1 about like Emily. But its inner core was tight. Emily is like Isabals its huge but can't get its self oreganized again.(Not quite as bad as Isidor)

not any more it is tight

jkt21787 · #202 Postby **jkt21787** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:40 pm

I think my heart just stopped.

Thunder44 · #203 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:40 pm

942 Wow!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #204 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:41 pm

The nhc needs to get a special out. :eek:

#205 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:43 pm

URNT12 KNHC 192136
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/21:14:10Z
B. 24 deg 21 min N
095 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2687 m
D. 60 kt
E. 210 deg 014 nm
F. 302 deg 071 kt
G. 208 deg 012 nm
H. 942 mb
I. 14 C/ 3050 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E/09/20/16
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 2005A EMILY OB 19
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 17:57:20 Z

As it was posted at page behind this one here it is.

#206 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:43 pm

942 mb, but the wind speed is still 100 mph. What a weird hurricane?!?!??!!

Hyperstorm · #207 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:43 pm

What!!!???

This is more insane than when Dennis was around! 14 mb in 2 hours!!!

clfenwi · #208 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:43 pm

Observation Number: 21
OB number: 21
Time transmitted : 2138Z
Position: 24.4 North // 95.6 West
Sea Level Pressure: 942 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: n/a
925 millibar height: 162 meters
925 millibar winds: 10 knots // 180
850 millibar height: 908 meters
850 millibar winds: 13 knots // 095
700 millibar height: 2605 meters
700 millibar winds 10 knots // 150

000
UZNT13 KNHC 192138
XXAA 69217 99244 70956 08245 99942 27205 07010 00/// ///// /////
92162 25803 08010 85908 24438 09513 70605 20060 15010 88999 77999
31313 09608 82122
61616 AF307 2005A EMILY OB 21
62626 SPL 2439N09566W 2126 MBL WND 08011 AEV 20507 DLM WND 10012
942716 WL150 07011 075 =
XXBB 69218 99244 70956 08245 00942 27205 11887 24010 22850 24438
33771 23459 44697 18058
21212 00942 07010 11850 09513 22834 09011 33811 11514 44729 11510
55697 16010
31313 09608 82122
61616 AF307 2005A EMILY OB 21
62626 SPL 2439N09566W 2126 MBL WND 08011 AEV 20507 DLM WND 10012

not labelled as such, but obviously eye dropsonde... I'll decode in place...decoded

rainstorm · #209 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:44 pm

should be a cat4 at landfall

gkrangers · #210 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:45 pm

HURAKAN wrote:942 mb, but the wind speed is still 100 mph. What a weird hurricane?!?!??!!

They just measured 700MB winds of 120 knots in the NE quad...Winds are likely over 115MPH at the surface.

HurricaneBill · #211 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:45 pm

HURAKAN wrote:942 mb, but the wind speed is still 100 mph. What a weird hurricane?!?!??!!

Who does she think she is? Gloria?

#212 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:46 pm

NHC just put out a special statement saying winds now 115 mph and increasing.

clfenwi · #213 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:48 pm

Observation Number: 20
Time transmitted: 2137Z
Position: 24.2 North // 95.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 964 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 44 knots / / 255
925 millibar height: 359 meters
925 millibar winds: 77 knots / /280
850 millibar height: 1091 meters
850 millibar winds: 65 knots / /280
700 millibar height:2763 meters
700 millibar winds : 57 knots // 190

gkrangers · #214 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:48 pm

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 115
MPH... MAKING EMILY A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONALLY... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO 942 MB... OR 27.82 INCHES.

chris_fit · #215 Postby **chris_fit** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:48 pm

JB so called this... props to him

#216 Postby **Windy** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:49 pm

Well now, I suppose we can officially say she is bombing. :lol:

NHC needs to keep Keanu Reeves on staff for moments like this. "Whoa..."

Gorky · #217 Postby **Gorky** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:51 pm

Let's see if Dereks Cat4 prediction comes through then. At this rate even that could be an underestimate :roll:

#218 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:55 pm

Gorky wrote:Let's see if Dereks Cat4 prediction comes through then. At this rate even that could be an underestimate

??

From Page one of this very thread:

Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 6:14 am

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
actually thats about 70-75KT surface

cat 3 now almost impossible. The winds have actually decreased from last night substantially. If the current trends continue, even cat 2 could be stretching it

Derek Ortt · #219 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:57 pm

yeah... things have changed drastically from this morning

however, not one nwhhc forecast in the last 72 hours has indicated anything less than a major hurricane at landfall

Gorky · #220 Postby **Gorky** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:57 pm

I was talking about his most recent forecasts released, of which the last one had a prediction of 110kt at landfall... I have to say I've not read all of this thread so had no idea he'd predicted differently earlier..

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