Special Statement NHC= CAT 3 120 mph

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cycloneye
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Special Statement NHC= CAT 3 120 mph

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:48 pm

WTNT65 KNHC 192143
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
443 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 115
MPH... MAKING EMILY A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONALLY... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO 942 MB... OR 27.82 INCHES.

FORECASTER KNABB
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby jasons2k » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:53 pm

OMG. Wasn't it 959? Wow!
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#3 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:59 pm

My god this thing is bombing FAST.
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#4 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:59 pm

Expect rapid intensification to continue. She is wrapping up
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#5 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:00 pm

:shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!:

942 mb is well into Cat 4 range... we may have a near Cat 5 if this continues. :eek:
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#6 Postby jax » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:00 pm

Brent wrote::shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!:

942 mb is well into Cat 4 range... we may have a near Cat 5 if this continues. :eek:


agreed...
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#7 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:02 pm

I believe it, her satellite representation is spectacular...classic outflow. She hasn't peaked yet either as the convection continues to explode around the center.
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#8 Postby msbee » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:02 pm

Oh! OH!
:crazyeyes:
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#9 Postby baygirl_1 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:03 pm

i'm not very familiar with the area of mexico she's threatening. just how populated is that area?
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#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:04 pm

not very populated at all... unless it gets near the border where it would hit matamoros
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#11 Postby lilbump3000 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:04 pm

000
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART

WINDS ARE NOW 120 MPH
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#12 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:05 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:000
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART

WINDS ARE NOW 120 MPH


It's only been 5 minutes! :eek:
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#13 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:07 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
lilbump3000 wrote:000
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART

WINDS ARE NOW 120 MPH


It's only been 5 minutes! :eek:


Yeah, I was going to comment that the key word in the first update was 'at least'... check the recon thread before the vortex message came out and you'll see us discussing the northeast quadrant flight level winds, which suggested surface winds of 120-125 mph...
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#14 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:07 pm

She's not wasting anytime to strengthen! The NW wobbles continue and she'll probably make landfall just south of the border. Brownsville is VERY lucky this isn't moving a little further north.
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#15 Postby baygirl_1 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:07 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:not very populated at all... unless it gets near the border where it would hit matamoros

thanks for the quick reply, derek. well, perhaps that will be a bit of a "saving grace." but i'm sure it's going to be horrible for all those folks there. it's fascinating to watch, that's for sure... but so scary when you're sitting in the bullseye (or rather "cone of terror")! how low can she go??! :eek: :eek:
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Steve
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#16 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:17 pm

>>how low can she go??!

That part of the Gulf can sustain close to 900mb per the Maximum Hurricane Potential site. I said yesterday I thought the bottom end was 930 (which I didn't expect it to hit). Bastardi said 940 today on his tropical update. So he might be high should Emily continue to intensify. Just remember in our hemisphere storms hitting westward at right angles tend to intensify nearing landfall barring other impediments.

What do you think?

Steve
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#17 Postby Astro_man92 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:22 pm

clfenwi wrote:
HurricaneBill wrote:
lilbump3000 wrote:000
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART

WINDS ARE NOW 120 MPH


It's only been 5 minutes! :eek:


Yeah, I was going to comment that the key word in the first update was 'at least'... check the recon thread before the vortex message came out and you'll see us discussing the northeast quadrant flight level winds, which suggested surface winds of 120-125 mph...


no they are 120 look here http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... large.html
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#18 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:22 pm

Holy smokes! I feel for everyone in the path of this storm. And so many folks said there's no way it will "bomb"...Uh, guess again. 2005 may be a year of many, many records to fall.

Let's hope the $50 or $100 billion record is not one of them.

:crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:
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#19 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:24 pm

Astro_man92 wrote:
clfenwi wrote:
HurricaneBill wrote:
lilbump3000 wrote:000
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART

WINDS ARE NOW 120 MPH


It's only been 5 minutes! :eek:


Yeah, I was going to comment that the key word in the first update was 'at least'... check the recon thread before the vortex message came out and you'll see us discussing the northeast quadrant flight level winds, which suggested surface winds of 120-125 mph...


no they are 120 look here http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... large.html


quoting myself which suggested surface winds of 120-125 mph

Now, I am not sure... however, I think that a range of 120-125 mph includes 120 mph... correct me if I am wrong...
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#20 Postby baygirl_1 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:25 pm

Steve wrote:>>how low can she go??!

That part of the Gulf can sustain close to 900mb per the Maximum Hurricane Potential site. I said yesterday I thought the bottom end was 930 (which I didn't expect it to hit). Bastardi said 940 today on his tropical update. So he might be high should Emily continue to intensify. Just remember in our hemisphere storms hitting westward at right angles tend to intensify nearing landfall barring other impediments.

What do you think?

Steve

well, she's dropped 30 mb in less than 7 hrs. i'd say bastardi's prediction is pretty much a given now. your 930 is very possible. over 100 miles to go at about 11 mph... yep, somewhere near 930 looks like where she's heading (at this rate)!
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