Derek Ortt wrote:yeah... things have changed drastically from this morning
however, not one nwhhc forecast in the last 72 hours has indicated anything less than a major hurricane at landfall
Well, there were at least 2 forecasts of only 95 kts at landfall made during the day yesterday:
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO EMILY TODAY AND CONFIRMED
THAT THE HURRICANE WEAKENED AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO 984 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS MEASURED BY THE
SFMR SUPPORT ONLY A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE INNER CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WAS DISRUPTED OVER YUCATAN BUT SATELLITE STILL SHOWS
SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH A FAIR OUTFLOW. THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS...ABOUT 30 DEGREE CELSIUS...OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOON AND THE SHEAR IS LOW ALONG THE TRACK.
IN ADDITION...ALL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 200 MB
ANTICYLONE OVER EMILY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE EMILY WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER YUCATAN...IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CYCLONE WILL
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
EMILY CONTINUES ON TRACK...ABOUT 295/14 KNOTS AROUND THE DEEP LAYER
MEAN HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND COULD EVEN BUILD WESTWARD. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER THE STATE OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHEAST MEXICO IN ABOUT
24 TO 36 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE
TRACK...OR A HURRICANE LARGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.3N 91.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 24.0N 95.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
=======================================
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO WRAP AROUND EMILY'S LARGE RAGGED
EYE...AND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT YET
FALLEN...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 90 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYE WALL. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A
SURFACE WIND OF 80 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRIC AS EMILY SHEDS THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. EMILY COULD BE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND IS ABOUT 300/13. ALL
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL. THE 18Z GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AND IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TRACK.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 92.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 93.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.2N 96.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
. It's been quite aday for all of us; and looks like a long nite too.
