H Emily Recon Reports

[cycloneye]

A new thread for tonight and overnight mission.

[clfenwi]

Ok, here is the latest from AF 302

0009 2947N 09021W 06707 0413 123 003 131 171 004 07213 0000000000

that is about 450 nautical miles from the center given by the most recent VORTEX message, so it should be near the center somewhere betwen 0130 and 0145Z.

[clfenwi]

0059 2701N 09352W 06705 0406 134 037 111 199 037 07205 0000000000

Still at crusing altitude, about 200 nautical miles away from the center...

[clfenwi]

OK, plane is down to operational attitude and approaching the eye from the northeast...

0119. 2558N 09444W 03048 0140 132 052 084 084 053 03238 0000000100
0120 2556N 09445W 03049 0138 132 052 082 066 053 03237 0000000000
0120. 2555N 09446W 03048 0137 133 054 082 060 054 03235 0000000000
0121 2554N 09448W 03048 0137 131 055 080 058 055 03235 0000000000
0121. 2552N 09449W 03049 0135 130 056 080 060 056 03233 0000000000
0122 2551N 09450W 03048 0133 128 055 076 062 055 03231 0000000000
0122. 2549N 09451W 03048 0131 131 055 078 058 055 03229 0000000000
0123 2548N 09452W 03049 0129 135 057 080 054 057 03228 0000000000
0123. 2547N 09453W 03047 0127 134 058 078 056 059 03224 0000000000
0124 2545N 09454W 03049 0125 130 059 074 062 059 03224 0000000000
0124. 2544N 09455W 03047 0123 131 059 076 060 059 03220 0000000000
0125 2543N 09456W 03049 0122 129 060 072 060 060 03220 0000000000
0125. 2541N 09457W 03048 0122 132 060 076 058 061 03219 0000000000
0126 2540N 09459W 03048 0120 133 061 072 060 062 03218 0000000000
0126. 2539N 09500W 03050 0118 131 061 068 064 061 03217 0000000000
0127 2538N 09501W 03047 0115 133 064 068 068 064 03211 0000000000
0127. 2536N 09503W 03049 0113 133 065 068 068 066 03212 0000000000
0128 2535N 09504W 03047 0111 135 066 074 062 067 03208 0000000000
0128. 2534N 09505W 03047 0108 135 064 080 058 065 03205 0000000000
0129 2533N 09507W 03049 0106 135 062 078 066 064 03205 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like dry air is getting into the western Eyewall. So it may of peaked.

[clfenwi]

still approaching...

0129. 2532N 09508W 03049 0105 134 064 068 068 065 03204 0000000000
0130 2530N 09509W 03048 0102 135 062 076 076 064 03200 0000000000
0130. 2529N 09511W 03047 0100 134 061 080 080 061 03196 0000000000
0131 2528N 09512W 03049 0099 133 063 076 068 064 03198 0000000000
0131. 2527N 09513W 03046 0096 136 067 082 074 067 03192 0000000000
0132 2526N 09515W 03049 0094 136 068 086 076 069 03193 0000000000
0132. 2524N 09516W 03047 0091 138 071 086 082 072 03188 0000000000
0133 2523N 09517W 03049 0088 138 069 086 086 070 03188 0000000000
0133. 2522N 09519W 03047 0086 134 070 092 092 072 03182 0000000000
0134 2521N 09520W 03049 0084 132 075 082 082 077 03183 0000000000
0134. 2520N 09521W 03045 0080 132 075 086 086 076 03175 0000000000
0135 2518N 09523W 03050 0075 133 072 084 084 075 03175 0000000000
0135. 2517N 09524W 03047 0073 134 072 082 082 074 03170 0000000000
0136 2516N 09525W 03049 0072 134 075 076 076 076 03171 0000000000
0136. 2515N 09527W 03048 0068 129 077 080 080 077 03166 0000000000
0137 2514N 09528W 03048 0065 127 077 076 076 077 03163 0000000000
0137. 2512N 09529W 03049 0061 126 077 076 076 078 03160 0000000000
0138 2511N 09531W 03047 0059 127 077 082 082 077 03156 0000000000
0138. 2510N 09532W 03049 0054 128 079 094 084 079 03153 0000000000
0139 2509N 09534W 03047 0050 128 080 092 088 081 03146 0000000000

[gkrangers]

0149. 2443N 09600W 03049 5111 130 082 118 106 082 02987 0000000000
0150 2442N 09601W 03048 5125 128 084 118 116 085 02973 0000000000
0150. 2441N 09602W 03048 5142 126 088 116 116 089 02956 0000000000
0151 2440N 09603W 03048 5161 127 093 126 116 094 02937 0000000000
0151. 2438N 09605W 03048 5187 127 097 118 116 097 02910 0000000000
0152 2437N 09606W 03049 5218 130 100 116 116 103 02881 0000000000
0152. 2436N 09607W 03048 5256 130 106 110 110 106 02842 0000000000
0153 2435N 09608W 03052 5297 133 105 122 122 108 02804 0000000000
0153. 2434N 09609W 03044 5331 133 082 140 136 095 02763 0000000000
0154 2432N 09611W 03048 5355 123 050 158 116 057 02742 0000000000
0154. 2431N 09612W 03047 5369 126 031 170 104 036 02727 0000000000
0155 2429N 09613W 03044 5377 136 022 176 098 025 02716 0000000000
0155. 2428N 09614W 03050 5382 155 011 178 092 014 02718 0000000000
0156 2427N 09616W 03049 5387 159 005 188 090 009 02711 0000000000
0156. 2426N 09618W 03044 5390 344 008 186 114 015 02703 0000000000
0157 2426N 09619W 03047 5383 340 031 176 114 040 02713 0000000000
0157. 2424N 09621W 03048 5356 336 064 150 132 074 02742 0000000000
0158 2423N 09622W 03072 5312 334 093 102 102 101 02809 0000000100
0158. 2422N 09624W 03063 5261 328 097 082 082 099 02851 0000000100
0159 2421N 09625W 03049 5222 328 093 098 098 096 02877 0000000100

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

108 knots...

[gkrangers]

883
URNT12 KNHC 200221
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/01:56:10Z
B. 24 deg 27 min N
096 deg 17 min W
C. 700 mb 2619 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 131 deg 108 kt
G. 044 deg 012 nm
H. 944 mb
I. 11 C/ 3050 m
J. 19 C/ 3044 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 2105A EMILY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 01:52:40 Z

[gkrangers]

The winds in this thing are pathetic for that pressure....

[dhweather]

That is odd - 108KT max flight level winds for a 940MB storm.

[Lowpressure]

The winds in this thing are pathetic for that pressure....

Question is do they catch up before landfall. 944 should be what 140 area?

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 05
Time transmitted: 0223Z
Position: 24.6 North // 96.1 West
Sea Level Pressure: 956 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 114 knots // 060
925 millibar height: 290 meters
925 millibar winds: 118 knots // 085
850 millibar height: 1032 meters
850 millibar winds: 108 knots // 105
700 millibar height: 2701 meters
700 millibar winds: 102 knots // 135
EYEWALL

[Derek Ortt]

but dropsonde winds suggest winds of 130 m.p.h.

[gkrangers]

but dropsonde winds suggest winds of 130 m.p.h.

Yeah..just saw that...any insight as to why the 700MB winds are so weak?

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 06
Time transmitted: 0224Z
Position: 24.4 North // 96.3 West
Sea Level Pressure: 944 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 6 knots // 035
925 millibar height: 180 meters
925 millibar winds: 5 knots // 025
850 millibar height: 925 meters
850 millibar winds: 8 knots // 015
700 millibar height: 2617 meters
700 millibar winds: 4 knots // 355
EYE


[Derek Ortt]

not sure...

likely what may ahve happened is that the max winds have shifted a bit closer to the surface

[SouthernWx]

In a hurricane moving almost due west (280°), the peak eyewall winds won't be found northeast of the eye (044°). It's more likely they'll be north to NNE of the center....

If I were the recon aircraft pilot, I'd fly a heading of 010° or 020° (N to NNE) from the eye....where the peak flight level winds are IMO located.

PW

[Sanibel]

944 corroborates the structure jerks seen on radar - which suggest further intensification...

[Seele]

Just a guess, but maybe they flew through what looks like a weaker part of the eye wall. This radar snapshot was about a min after they took the reading: