Hurricane Emily Advisories

[cycloneye]

KNHC 200249
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z WED JUL 20 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.4W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 100SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.4W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.7N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 35SE 15SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 75SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 96.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[johngaltfla]

7 mph? If that's not the worst fear of anyone living on the GOM, I don't know what is. The amount of rain these storms can dump is unbelievable. I can not imagine what South Texas and Northern Mexico will look like after 24 hours of this storm...Godspeed to all down there!

[cycloneye]

761
WTNT45 KNHC 200300
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THE LAST TWO RECON FIXES JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INDICATED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING... ALTHOUGH MORE SLOWLY THAN IT
HAD BEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED
THAT THE MEASUREMENT 942 MB AT 2114Z WAS SUSPECT... THERE IS
CONFIDENCE IN THE 948 MB MEASURED AT 2318Z... AND A MORE RECENT FIX
NEAR 02Z OF 944 MB INDICATED THE DECREASING TREND CONTINUES. THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 122 KT AT 2126Z REMAINS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGED FROM 100 TO 115 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
110 KT. THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF EMILY IS IMPRESSIVE... WITH A 17
NM WIDE EYE AND A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A
CONCENTRIC BAND AT A RADIUS OF 35 NMI. GIVEN THE PRESSURE FALLS
AND WELL-ORGANIZED INTERNAL STRUCTURES... SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

EMILY TOOK A JOG TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY STALLED BETWEEN 23Z
AND 01Z... BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO HAVE
RESUMED... ESTIMATED AT 285/6. 00Z UPPER DATA INDICATES NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES. EMILY SHOULD STEADILY MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BRING EMILY TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND WELL INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
INTERIOR MEXICO BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE
SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO
THE RECENT STALL.

THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS BASED
ON BUOY DATA... AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE
BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL DATA.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 24.5N 96.4W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 24.7N 97.8W 120 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[shawn67]

As an FYI the coordinates for San Fernando: 24.84 North 98.15 West and
Matamoros 25.86 North 97.50 West


Shawn

[HurricaneQueen]

I certainly hope she picks up speed or she will be dumping a lot of rain all along her path. I know they need the water but not like this. Plus, the winds will be in the area for a much longer time than had she kept moving as she has over the past week plus.

Godspeed to all in her path.

Lynn

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AT 11 PM CDT... 0400Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 110 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 105
MILES... 170 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Hurricaneman]

Almost stalled is the worst situation I can think of

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
MIDNIGHT CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WOBBLING TOWARD THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... 160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 105
MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN
BROWNSVILLE SHOWS THAT WHILE THE EYE OF EMILY IS WOBBLING...THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MATAMOROS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST
TO 61 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION......24.5 N... 96.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[clfenwi]

sheesh even the NHC has a wobble thread going now...

[Stratosphere747]

ZCZC MIATCEAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AT 1 AM CDT... 0600Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 90 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 100
MILES... 160 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


No movement since 12....Oh .1 to the N

[Hurricaneman]

Not moving much at all

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

6pm cdt 24.5/96.0
7pm cdt 24.4/96.1
8pm cdt 24.4/96.1
9pm cdt 24.5/96.2
10pm cdt 24.5/96.4
11pm cdt 24.6/96.6
12am cdt 24.5/96.8
1am cdt 24.6/96.8


.1 north/.8 west over the last 8 hours...I believe the coast is around 97.6/97.8 west...So we got almost a degree to go...At the current rate of speed its going we sould have another 7 to 8 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My latest center est is at 24.7/96.9...

That information is based off the center of the eye.

[mtm4319]

Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 38b

Statement as of 2:00 am CDT on July 20, 2005


...Eye of major Hurricane Emily continues erratic wobbling toward
the coast of northeastern Mexico...


a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Lower Texas coast from Port
Mansfield southward to the Texas/Mexico border.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for northeastern Mexico from
south of the Texas/Mexico border to La Cruz and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect from south of La Cruz to Cabo Rojo.


A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should have already been completed.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Texas. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 2 am CDT...0700z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 24.6 north... longitude 96.9 west or about 90
miles... 145 km...south-southeast of matamoros Mexico and about 95
miles... 155 km...south-southeast of Brownsville Texas.


Radar data from the National Weather Service Doppler radar in
Brownsville shows that while the eye of Emily is wobbling...the
hurricane is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 8
mph...13 km/hr. A general westward motion near 10 mph is expected
to begin later this morning and continue through today. On this
track...the center of Emily will be near the coast of northeastern
Mexico this morning.


Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a dangerous category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible...
and Emily could become a category four hurricane before landfall.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km. Outer rainbands bringing locally heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds will continue to spread across the
coasts of far south Texas and northeastern Mexico overnight tonight.
Wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph have been reported in the Brownsville-
Port Isabel area during the past few hours.


The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 944 mb...27.88 inches.


Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide
levels...with higher levels in bays...accompanied by large and
dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north
of where the center makes landfall.


The heaviest rainfall is likely over northeastern Mexico where 5 to
10 inches are likely with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches
possible in the mountains. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over southern Texas and
the lower Rio Grande Valley.


Isolated tornadoes are possible over far south Texas tonight...and
over southern and south-central Texas on Wednesday.


Repeating the 2 am CDT position...24.6 N... 96.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 944 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.


Forecaster Beven

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like the hurricane is tighting again...A ring of red is starting to form around the new larger eye. While the dry air is being pushed to the southwest. Outflow has improved greatly...Expect...

1# To see the outter eyewall to tighten as it is moving in.
2# A slow increase in winds
3# A landfall between 7 in 9am cdt...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ZCZC MIATCEAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AT 3 AM CDT... 0800Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 90
MILES... 145 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My latest est of the center of Emily...
24.8/97.3

The storm has formed a ring of red around its new eye this morning. Expect slowly tighting intill inland.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTNT35 KNHC 200833
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...OUTER EYEWALL OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING ONTO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED NORTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 85
MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF EMILY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
SAN FERNANDO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT EMILY COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS OVER SOUTH TEXAS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...24.7 N... 97.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 39


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 20, 2005



reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and
WSR-88D data from Brownsville show that Emily has a classic
concentric eyewall structure this morning...with diameters of 16 and
50 N mi. The highest winds are currently occurring in the
northeast quadrant of the outer eyewall...with the aircraft
recently reporting 107 kt 700 mb flight-level winds in that area.
The deepening trend observed earlier has ended...with the
aircraft-measured central pressures hovering in the 943-945 mb
range since 02z. The initial intensity remains 110 kt.
The initial motion is a wobbly 285/7. A building low/mid level
ridge over Texas should turn Emily to a westerly track in the next
12 hr or so...and this motion persist until Emily dissipates over
northern Mexico. The new forecast track is essentially an update
of the previous track.
Emily is just about out of time to strengthen...and the presence of
concentric eyewalls suggests that little change in strength is
likely prior to landfall. That being said...there is still a
chance that Emily could become a category four hurricane if
frictional convergence causes the outer eyewall to tighten up as
the hurricane crosses the coast. Weakening will occur after
landfall...and Emily should dissipate over the mountains of
northern Mexico in about 36 hr.
The 12 ft seas radii were expanded based on buoy data... and the
wind radii were expanded slightly more based on recent aircraft
flight level data.

Forecaster Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0900z 24.7n 97.2w 110 kt
12hr VT 20/1800z 24.8n 98.6w 75 kt...inland
24hr VT 21/0600z 24.8n 100.7w 25 kt...inland dissipating
36hr VT 21/1800z...dissipated

[senorpepr]

...OUTER EYEWALL OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING ONTO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...