10:30 EDT TWO - Read....

[beachbum_al]

Looks like I will not be catching up on any sleep this week or the week to come.

[Brent]

Somehow, the name Franklin - if (or when) he ever forms - certainly doesn't have a very menacing sound to me. But, then again, I remember thinking the same way about the name "Andrew". Both of those names just have a meek and mild ring to them.

Actually before the season started I thought Franklin would be a big long-tracker and a major hurricane for the U.S.

Hope that doesn't come true now... I also expected him in Late August, not Mid to Late July.

[Derek Ortt]

if it ends up in the nw carib, it will be fine, we dont see much upwelling there.

havn't been looking at it for obvious reasons

[mike18xx]

Ooo! Ooo! <rubbing hands, waiting for roulette ball to plop in "20">)

[Owen]

Per my analysis....
Unless this thing gets removed from the huge TUTT low centered over Jamaica, there won't be a chance of it developing....not in the Caribbean anyway. If the shower activity drifts NW over the Bahamas, then upper winds won't be very favorable either, since it would be trapped under the subsident upper-level subtropical ridge extending from Florida NE towards Bermuda. The only chance for it to develop were if the TUTT low lifts NW, leaving behind an upper tropospheric sub equatorial ridge (which is divergent) over the central caribbean, and the tropical wave tucks under this. In fact, this divergent ridge seems to be trying to form over Puerto Rico, which is actually partly enhancing the shower activity over the norther Leeward Islands. So basically, no chance to develop in the short term, until the TUTT low slides to the NW or N of it. If that happens, and convection has persisted, then we have something to watch.


EDIT: And yeah, Derek is right, nothing in the way of SST's will hinder this system.

[Ixolib]

Somehow, the name Franklin - if (or when) he ever forms - certainly doesn't have a very menacing sound to me. But, then again, I remember thinking the same way about the name "Andrew". Both of those names just have a meek and mild ring to them.

Actually before the season started I thought Franklin would be a big long-tracker and a major hurricane for the U.S.

Hope that doesn't come true now... I also expected him in Late August, not Mid to Late July.

I heard that!! Surely, thus far, the season has been (and seems like it wants to continue being) amazing, to say the least. So, if August becomes July, and September becomes August, does that mean Halloween will take place on September 31 and Thanksgiving will happen on October 27?? Perhaps we can just skip Christmas this year since I can't cash in my savings account until after November 25!!

[HURAKAN]

It seems that the Bahamas could be our next ground for possible tropical formation since wind shear right now is not strong and has been declining over the last 24 hours.

[mike18xx]

Yep; gotta say that a sling-shot recurver looks like the likliest scenerio.

[mtm4319]

I think people may be overreacting. It says that "conditions might become slightly more favorable" for development, and we're acting like it's going to become the offspring of Dennis and Emily.

[WeatherEmperor]

Is there any chance that if, keyword if this thing develops that it will just recurve out into the atlantic?

<RICKY>

[Swimdude]

Ohhhh you're freakin' kidding me.

[kevin]

Gah.

[Hurricaneman]

It just wont give up

[Swimdude]

It just wont give up

Hasn't 99L been around since hours after Emily formed?

[southerngale]

I absolutely FORBID this thing to develop!

Everyone chant *lull* *lull* *lull*
Altogether now...

[EDR1222]

It just wont give up

Hasn't 99L been around since hours after Emily formed?

Feels like it has been out there all season

[Hurricaneman]

I think it might become a player in the southeastern weather, but most likely will become a fish

[wxwatcher91]

This is "99L", right?

Enough of this gulf stuff, I want a Northeast hurricane!

yeah! I'm all for that... the only tropical systems that I can remember that were still somewhat tropical were Floyd and Charley...

I am all for a hurricane up here 1938 repeat yourself!
...cept with NHC warning so we dont have 600 people die again

[Hyperstorm]

Latest update at 530 am. Basically unchanged from the previous discussion.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200908
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE EMILY... LOCATED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... BUT COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[EDR1222]

Doesn't look too impressive so far. Lets see what happens the next couple of days.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html