90L Invest

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HouTXmetro
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#81 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:14 pm

Oh no, the models are trending West. It's coming to Texas!!!!!!!





JK
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#82 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:14 pm

Just put it in both post....
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Zadok
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#83 Postby Zadok » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:16 pm

Looks like it is developing to me.

Image

Anywhere from southern palm beach to northern Martin county line . :D
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#84 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:18 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Send it to Texas... Give the Eastern Gulf a break!! :lol: :lol:


Emily didn't even make landfall in Texas and I'm already tired of tracking. Not sure If I could bare tracking another possible Texas storm right now.
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#85 Postby Scott_inVA » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:20 pm

GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, NAM, UKMET all fish.
EC (0Z): storm? what storm?

Scott
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#86 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:21 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, NAM, UKMET all fish.
EC (0Z): storm? what storm?

Scott


Really? I thought the ridge was going to force it west.
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#87 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:22 pm

hey, remember the RIDGE?? don't see it being a fish...
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Stormcenter
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#88 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:23 pm

IF (and that's still in doubt) this develops I just don't see how it can go up the East coast. It should cross Fl and enter the GOM. Then after that well my thinking is Central or Eastern GOM. I don't think this wil be a Texas threat. But again this ALL based on something actually developing.
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#89 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:24 pm

yeah, there is no telling...it may not develop at all...but, hey we will see...i could see the ridge pushing this all the way into the gulf...
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#90 Postby jabber » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:24 pm

Looks pretty weak to me. I have a feeling its gonna be one of them that goes 'POOF' overnight.
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#91 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:24 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, NAM, UKMET all fish.
EC (0Z): storm? what storm?

Scott


I'm sorry but they are seeing something that I know I'm definitely missing if that's the case.
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Rainband

#92 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:25 pm

jabber wrote:Looks pretty weak to me. I have a feeling its gonna be one of them that goes 'POOF' overnight.
I was thinking that early on but after last year and this year so far....anything is possible. :eek: :lol:
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jasons2k
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#93 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:26 pm

I'm confused, some of the TX forecast disucssions overnight and this AM referenced a wave that was supposed to move in on ~Monday-Tuesday next week. I assumed it was 90 (old 99).

Now the models are fishing with 90.

Is this the same system or did I really miss something? Sorry, been in meetings all day and litttle time to get updated.
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#94 Postby Zadok » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:31 pm

Looks pretty weak to me. I have a feeling its gonna be one of them that goes 'POOF' overnight.


It looked weak last night over PR but now it looks different.
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Thunder44
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#95 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:33 pm

jschlitz wrote:I'm confused, some of the TX forecast disucssions overnight and this AM referenced a wave that was supposed to move in on ~Monday-Tuesday next week. I assumed it was 90 (old 99).

Now the models are fishing with 90.

Is this the same system or did I really miss something? Sorry, been in meetings all day and litttle time to get updated.


You should look at some of discussions coming out of the Miami and Melbourne offices. They are talking about this more:

From the Miami NWS:

BEHIND THIS RIPPLE...THE NEXT FEATURE SHOULD BE A TROPICAL
WAVE/DISTURBANCE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN ADVANCING
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS.
NAM AND GFS NOW SEEM TO AGREE ON MOVING THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
FAR SIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THEY BOTH
DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW...TROPICAL DEPRESSION?...EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE IT NORTH WITHOUT REALLY
AFFECTING THE STATE. WITH A WEAK SYSTEM IT WOULD SEEM MORE LOGICAL
THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE MODEL SCENARIO SEEMS QUESTIONABLE
AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS. FOR THIS PACKAGE
WILL EXPECT DISTURBANCE TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TRENDING BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE WEEKEND.

From the Melbourne NWS office:

FRI-SAT...NEW INTEREST IN THE T-WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SRN
BAHAMAS AS NHC INDICATED EARLIER TODAY. UPR LVL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
LOOKING AS UNFAVORABLE AS BEFORE...AND INITIAL MODEL RUNS BRING THE
SYSTEM TOO CLOSE TO THE EAST FL COAST TO IGNORE. STILL...WITH NO
STORM CURRENTLY IN PLACE...THE ONLY OPTION AS FAR AS FORECASTING IS
CONCERNED IS TO INCREASE POPS/SKY COVER AREAWIDE FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALSO WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS UP TO REFLECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
STRONGER NOCTURNAL SFC WINDS. STAY TUNED.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#96 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:34 pm

It looks pretty good with the curving bands. With the possible MLC forming...Shear levels should be going down.
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jlauderdal
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#97 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:34 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I'm confused, some of the TX forecast disucssions overnight and this AM referenced a wave that was supposed to move in on ~Monday-Tuesday next week. I assumed it was 90 (old 99).

Now the models are fishing with 90.

Is this the same system or did I really miss something? Sorry, been in meetings all day and litttle time to get updated.


You should look at some of discussions coming out of the Miami and Melbourne offices. They are talking about this more:

I will post them shortly.


Miami doesnt seem real excited about it, melbourne is luke warm
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Rainband

#98 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:35 pm

Tampa is late :lol:
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chris_fit
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#99 Postby chris_fit » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:35 pm

FRI-SAT...NEW INTEREST IN THE T-WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SRN
BAHAMAS AS NHC INDICATED EARLIER TODAY. UPR LVL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
LOOKING AS UNFAVORABLE AS BEFORE...AND INITIAL MODEL RUNS BRING THE
SYSTEM TOO CLOSE TO THE EAST FL COAST TO IGNORE. STILL...WITH NO
STORM CURRENTLY IN PLACE...THE ONLY OPTION AS FAR AS FORECASTING IS
CONCERNED IS TO INCREASE POPS/SKY COVER AREAWIDE FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALSO WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS UP TO REFLECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
STRONGER NOCTURNAL SFC WINDS. STAY TUNED.

SUN-WED...THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE IS THE PRIMARY WX FACTOR
FOR THE FL PENINSULA THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL
T-WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE BOTTLENECK AS TRYING TO FORECAST ITS
POSITION BEYOND 72HRS. WILL DEFAULT LARGELY TO CLIMO.
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Rainband

#100 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:36 pm

I sent a request for the floater...in case this develops :D
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