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Scott_inVA · #101 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:36 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
I'm sorry but they are seeing something that I know I'm definitely missing if that's the case.

Trof progged to swing down through VA and probably NC ahead of approaching Cold Front. Doubt the CF makes much if any progress south of NC (tough to do with these heights and late July) but that's what they are seeing.

My *guess* is the models won't recurve as fast or as sharply over the next 24 hours.

Scott

#102 Postby **gboudx** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:37 pm

jschlitz wrote:I'm confused, some of the TX forecast disucssions overnight and this AM referenced a wave that was supposed to move in on ~Monday-Tuesday next week. I assumed it was 90 (old 99).

Now the models are fishing with 90.

Is this the same system or did I really miss something? Sorry, been in meetings all day and litttle time to get updated.

I think the guy on the KHOU message board was talking about a wave that's in the Carribean right now.

#103 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:39 pm

Zadok wrote:
Looks pretty weak to me. I have a feeling its gonna be one of them that goes 'POOF' overnight.

It looked weak last night over PR but now it looks different.

I can tell you that when it moved thru here it was not weak as between 3-6 inches of rain fell in parts of Puerto Rico.There were flash flood watches and warnings up from late afternoon to early this morning Also some gusty winds were blowing with the strong thunderstorms as they moved thru.I clocked 32 mph in a gust in one of those.

jpigott · #104 Postby **jpigott** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:39 pm

anybody have any ideas why all the globals have this system "fishing" and the tropical models having it cross Fl and into the gulf

Rainband · #105 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:41 pm

jpigott wrote:anybody have any ideas why all the globals have this system "fishing" and the tropical models having it cross Fl and into the gulf

scotts post above :uarrow:

#106 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:45 pm

Rainband wrote:
jpigott wrote:anybody have any ideas why all the globals have this system "fishing" and the tropical models having it cross Fl and into the gulf
scotts post above

Thank you all, now I'm back "on track" :A:

Rainband · #107 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:46 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Rainband wrote:
jpigott wrote:anybody have any ideas why all the globals have this system "fishing" and the tropical models having it cross Fl and into the gulf
scotts post above

Thank you all, now I'm back "on track"

No problemo..oops.. :oops:

No problem I mean.. sorry still in Mexico with Emily :lol:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #108 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:57 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM NONAME (AL892005) ON 20050720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050720 1200 050721 0000 050721 1200 050722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 23.0N 75.0W 24.4N 77.8W 25.6N 80.5W 26.7N 82.8W

BAMM 23.0N 75.0W 24.3N 77.8W 25.5N 80.2W 26.6N 82.3W

A98E 23.0N 75.0W 24.0N 76.8W 25.1N 78.7W 26.3N 80.6W

LBAR 23.0N 75.0W 24.1N 77.1W 25.4N 79.2W 26.3N 80.7W

SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 53KTS

DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050722 1200 050723 1200 050724 1200 050725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 27.5N 84.4W 28.4N 86.0W 28.6N 88.5W 29.9N 91.7W

BAMM 27.5N 83.8W 28.9N 85.7W 29.9N 87.6W 31.5N 89.5W

A98E 27.8N 82.6W 30.3N 85.0W 31.8N 85.9W 32.6N 84.0W

LBAR 27.3N 81.9W 28.6N 82.8W 29.4N 83.3W 30.6N 84.9W

SHIP 59KTS 66KTS 66KTS 60KTS

DSHP 47KTS 55KTS 54KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 73.2W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 71.4W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

It has this where the system is. In has its track...So it must be real.

#109 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:58 pm

is there a graphic available for this one?>

Thunder44 · #110 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:59 pm

Matt I saw that earlier it's a 12z run and it was just a test. 18z run still shows invest.

#111 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:00 pm

ship brings it to near hurricane, not very reliable right now

#112 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:01 pm

tracyswfla wrote:is there a graphic available for this one?>

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050720 1800 050721 0600 050721 1800 050722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 71.0W 22.7N 73.1W 23.9N 74.8W 24.7N 76.2W
BAMM 21.0N 71.0W 22.6N 73.8W 24.0N 75.9W 25.2N 77.6W
A98E 21.0N 71.0W 22.3N 73.1W 23.7N 75.2W 25.1N 77.1W
LBAR 21.0N 71.0W 22.4N 73.0W 23.5N 74.9W 24.5N 76.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 1800 050724 1800 050725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.1N 77.4W 25.0N 80.2W 25.2N 83.9W 26.1N 88.0W
BAMM 26.1N 78.6W 27.0N 79.9W 27.5N 82.1W 28.5N 84.4W
A98E 26.5N 78.9W 29.2N 81.0W 30.5N 82.1W 31.4N 80.8W
LBAR 25.2N 77.8W 26.5N 79.7W 27.8N 81.2W 29.4N 82.8W
SHIP 34KTS 39KTS 43KTS 45KTS
DSHP 34KTS 39KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 67.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

DESTRUCTION5 · #113 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:02 pm

Noname =Deppression Am i wrong?

#114 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:04 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Noname =Deppression Am i wrong?

That is not the 90L one Matt posted.That was a test from weeks ago.

#115 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:04 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Noname =Deppression Am i wrong?

They usually call is a depression if it is one.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #116 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:04 pm

No that post was from earier today.

DESTRUCTION5 · #117 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:05 pm

dhweather wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Noname =Deppression Am i wrong?

They usually call is a depression if it is one.

ahh

#118 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:06 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:No that post was from earier today.

That is a test as header says AL89 not AL90.

#119 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:is there a graphic available for this one?>

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050720 1800 050721 0600 050721 1800 050722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 71.0W 22.7N 73.1W 23.9N 74.8W 24.7N 76.2W
BAMM 21.0N 71.0W 22.6N 73.8W 24.0N 75.9W 25.2N 77.6W
A98E 21.0N 71.0W 22.3N 73.1W 23.7N 75.2W 25.1N 77.1W
LBAR 21.0N 71.0W 22.4N 73.0W 23.5N 74.9W 24.5N 76.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 1800 050724 1800 050725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.1N 77.4W 25.0N 80.2W 25.2N 83.9W 26.1N 88.0W
BAMM 26.1N 78.6W 27.0N 79.9W 27.5N 82.1W 28.5N 84.4W
A98E 26.5N 78.9W 29.2N 81.0W 30.5N 82.1W 31.4N 80.8W
LBAR 25.2N 77.8W 26.5N 79.7W 27.8N 81.2W 29.4N 82.8W
SHIP 34KTS 39KTS 43KTS 45KTS
DSHP 34KTS 39KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 67.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Matt you posted a test as it says AL89 instead of AL90.What I am posting here is the legit model plots as it says AL90.

#120 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:No that post was from earier today.

That is a test as header says AL89 not AL90.

I think it is a technicality as they dont run models on invest so they are just calling it a td. i wouldn't read to much into it beside we know model runs are suspect at best without a decent center to iniatilize. I personally wouldn't get to excited about this one, there isn't that much real estate to work with and the dynamics aren't so great either.

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