90L Invest

[Zadok]

Convection is starting to wrap around. Do we have a TD yet?

[x-y-no]

Well ... I don't see anything even close to a closed circulation yet, and I'm not about to get excited until I do.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

[jlauderdal]

Well ... I don't see anything even close to a closed circulation yet, and I'm not about to get excited until I do.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

i don't see anything either other than an afternoon flare up. if it is still together at this time tomorrow than norcross can start getting excited.

[GalvestonDuck]

I see an eye -- my own, staring back at me from the reflection in my monitor.

Dang it, don't we need a break?

[PTrackerLA]

NWS Houston believes it might be threat.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
EMILY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS SHE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. FAR OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL HOVERING
AROUND TWO INCHES...MORE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODELS SHOW ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO UPPER
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
RETAIN THE TWO INCHISH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS RESIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE DAILY ROUNDS (CHANCE POPS) OF MAINLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL CONTINUE
THIS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THAT RAIN
CHANCES COULD INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL APPROACH
OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. 42&&

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see an eye -- my own, staring back at me from the reflection in my monitor.

Dang it, don't we need a break?

I'm holding out for one more to make this the earliest 6th storm in history. After that maybe a short break.

[Stormcenter]

This disturbance is looking better and better. IMO
It's funny I've read the NWS discussions out Mobile,Lake Charles and Tallahassee this afternoon and NONE of them mention it. Why? I just read the NWS in Houston on this thread and they do mention it. I'm sorry but that does not make sense.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

Well ... I don't see anything even close to a closed circulation yet, and I'm not about to get excited until I do.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The big question is will recon go tommorow afternoon.It all depends if the disturbance gets better organized during the night and morning.What do you think about the recon question Jan?

[Ivanhater]

i doubt recon will go tomorrow if it still looks like this, but if it continues to organize, i think they should go

[Patrick99]

I'm confused, some of the TX forecast disucssions overnight and this AM referenced a wave that was supposed to move in on ~Monday-Tuesday next week. I assumed it was 90 (old 99).

Now the models are fishing with 90.

Is this the same system or did I really miss something? Sorry, been in meetings all day and litttle time to get updated.

You should look at some of discussions coming out of the Miami and Melbourne offices. They are talking about this more:

I will post them shortly.

Miami doesnt seem real excited about it, melbourne is luke warm

The Miami office is always...laid-back...about such things...hehe

[tampastorm]

Looks to be moving at a good clip. "IF "this effects the East coast of FL, what time table are we looking at? It does look to be less spread out and getting its act together somewhat.

[ohiostorm]

This has nothing to do about this particular storm but I am unaware of how they get the number for the invests... example... INVEST 90L.. where do they get the 90L?? Thanks in advance.

[MortisFL]

If NHC says conditions could gradually improve over time, then its something to watch. With a season like this, anything could develop.

[Thunder44]

No that post was from earier today.

That is a test as header says AL89 not AL90.

I didn't even notice that. I'm sure it's not for 90L now.

[x-y-no]

Well ... I don't see anything even close to a closed circulation yet, and I'm not about to get excited until I do.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The big question is will recon go tommorow afternoon.It all depends if the disturbance gets better organized during the night and morning.What do you think about the recon question Jan?

I think that if it has a closed circulation, however weak, by mid-morning, recon will go. Otherwise, probably not.

[BonesXL]

It seems to me that systems tend to develop better overnight. we'll have to see what the night brings, any thoughts?

[x-y-no]

This has nothing to do about this particular storm but I am unaware of how they get the number for the invests... example... INVEST 90L.. where do they get the 90L?? Thanks in advance.

They assign numbers starting with 90, 91 ... 99, then start over at 90 again.

The "L" stands for the Atlantic basin.

[ohiostorm]

ahhhh ok thanks alot.

[Swimdude]

*Shakes head* See, I finally figured it out. The tropics KNOW when we need to catch up on some sleep... So they're preventing it... PERFECTLY.

[Opal storm]

This disturbance is looking better and better. IMO
It's funny I've read the NWS discussions out Mobile,Lake Charles and Tallahassee this afternoon and NONE of them mention it. Why? I just read the NWS in Houston on this thread and they do mention it. I'm sorry but that does not make sense.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Heard on the radio this afternoon a local met said we should keep an eye on this.