TS Eugene has been downgraded to TD,Last Advisorie

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Eugene Intermediate Advisory Number 5a


Statement as of 11:00 am PDT on July 19, 2005



...Eugene strengthens as it continues northwestward...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for southern Baja
California...south of Agua Blanca on the West Coast and south of
Buenavista on the East Coast. This means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 am PDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 19.8 north... longitude 108.9 west or about
230 miles... 370 km... south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas Mexico.

Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...24 km/hr. A
gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph... 110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Eugene will soon be moving over cooler waters and should
begin to weaken tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.20 inches.

Repeating the 11 am PDT position...19.8 N...108.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 989 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
2 PM PDT.

Forecaster Franklin

Eugene almost a hurricane. Don't be alarmed, human error included!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...EUGENE NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF
BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

EUGENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SHOULD EUGENE MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS COULD REACH THE WATCH AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...20.0 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005

BANDING FEATURES CONTINUED TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z UP TO 3.5 AND
4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT EUGENE HAS REACHED
HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER...AND EUGENE HAS
ALREADY PASSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM. CONSEQUENTLY...NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GFDL AND GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS...WHICH CALL FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
DISSIPATION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOWER DECAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS EVEN
MORE WEST THAN THAT. EUGENE WAS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT NOT THIS QUICKLY. SHOULD THIS
MOTION BE MAINTAINED THEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL NOT REACH
BAJA...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MOTION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
TO BE CERTAIN THAT THE TURN HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS STILL BASICALLY NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE
PRECEDING FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 20.0N 109.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 21.2N 111.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 22.2N 113.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 22.6N 115.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

WTPZ25 KNHC 200234
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005
0300Z WED JUL 20 2005

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
ENTIRE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.7N 114.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

[cycloneye]

KNHC 200255
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005

EUGENE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER
BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS HAVE VIRTUALLY
DISSIPATED. COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. APPARENTLY...THERMODYNAMIC
EFFECTS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MARINE LAYER... AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... HAVE HAD A
DRAMATIC IMPACT ON EUGENE. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.5 (35
KT) TO 3.5 (55 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...WHICH
MAY BE GENEROUS AT THIS POINT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS
TRENDS...CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS BY DAY 3 AND
DISSIPATION BY DAY 4.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...
WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEN TRACKING WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW AS A REMNANT LOW.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 20.4N 111.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 21.0N 112.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 21.7N 114.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED



Eugene is on it's last moments of his life.

[P.K.]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 200841
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2005

EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICTED THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME AN
EXPOSED CIRCULATION...WITH REMAINING WEAK CONVECTION CONFINED WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER HAS ALSO
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER
WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN EUGENE TO A REMNANT SWIRL OF CLOUDS DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR LESS. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.0
(30 KT) TO 2.5 (35 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A MODEST 40
KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING WITH
DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY RAPID
WEAKENING TREND EUGENE IS EXPERIENCING...ADVISORIES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

BASED OFF OF THE PREVIOUS MICROWAVE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....WITH A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITHIN THE LOW/MID STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.1N 111.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 21.8N 112.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 22.5N 114.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/0600Z 23.2N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

WTPZ25 KNHC 201449
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005
1500Z WED JUL 20 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 116.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 111.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

[Hurricaneman]

See ya in 2011 Eugene

[cycloneye]

710
WTPZ25 KNHC 202032
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005
2100Z WED JUL 20 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER AVILA


Rip to Eugene.

[Andrew92]

Eugene,

See ya in 2011, don't let that door hit you on the way out! At least you won't get the can, as Emily is sure to get.

-Andrew92

[Swimdude]

Well, that was certainly a quick and insignificant storm if i've ever seen one. Yup, see ya in 2011.

[Andrew92]

Well, that was certainly a quick and insignificant storm if i've ever seen one. Yup, see ya in 2011.

They've just about all been this year in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Well, that was certainly a quick and insignificant storm if i've ever seen one. Yup, see ya in 2011.

They've just about all been this year in the EPAC.

Only hurricane has been Adrian and look what occured to him before landfall at El Salvador.

[Sanibel]

Surprised no one mentioned the obvious. If EPAC is weak this year it raises the chances of the Atlantic being strong...

[HURAKAN]

Surprised no one mentioned the obvious. If EPAC is weak this year it raises the chances of the Atlantic being strong...

Not just the EPAC, the WPAC is even more surprising. Last year at this time they has already 12 named systems, this year, only 6.