90L Invest

Rainband · #141 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:46 pm

000
FXUS62 KTBW 201935
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION SLOWER TO GET GOING TODAY LIKELY DUE TO DRIER
AIR SEEN IN MORNING SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ESP SOUTHERN HALF OF FA. ALTHOUGH SFC OBS DO NOT SHOW IT...THE
WEST COAST BREEZE IS LIKELY LURKING ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...SOME STRONG.

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THU CONTINUING
THE EASTERLY (OFFSHORE) FLOW. THE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG SO THE WEST COAST BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EARLIER AND
PUSH INLAND FARTHER THAN TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU AFTN FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FL
PENINSULA IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANOLA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THU. GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT RECURVES IT WELL OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AS UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND BROAD TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CONUS. BUT WILL BE
WATCHING THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS HURRICANE CENTER MODELS BRING THIS
FEATURE CLOSER TO FL. SO COULD SEE ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES SAT...AND
POSSIBLY FRI DEPENDING ON ITS SPEED AND MOVEMENT.

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS S FL THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO AN ONSHORE
(W/SW) FLOW WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING MAY BRING TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES...ESP SRQ. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA BT 077/092 077/091 076 242
FMY BT 076/093 076/092 075 242
GIF BT 076/094 076/093 075 232
SRQ BT 076/091 076/090 076 242
BKV BT 073/093 073/092 073 232

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

KELLY

#142 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:46 pm

hey opal which one said that, ill make sure ill watch that one

Opal storm · #143 Postby **Opal storm** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:52 pm

ivanhater wrote:hey opal which one said that, ill make sure ill watch that one

David Glenn

Swimdude · #144 Postby **Swimdude** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:52 pm

Not sure what all this hype is about... I'm not seeing too much here... And yes, I know, seeing isn't everything. But... the disorganization... yeesh.

#145 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:54 pm

oh good, i like him the most

ROCK · #146 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:58 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:NWS Houston believes it might be threat.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
EMILY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS SHE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. FAR OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL HOVERING
AROUND TWO INCHES...MORE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODELS SHOW ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO UPPER
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
RETAIN THE TWO INCHISH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS RESIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE DAILY ROUNDS (CHANCE POPS) OF MAINLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL CONTINUE
THIS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THAT RAIN
CHANCES COULD INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL APPROACH
OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. 42&&

this is in reference to the blob currently in the NW carib. not 90L. Possible NW track through the Yuc and into the GOM.

Rainband · #147 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:00 pm

Swimdude wrote:Not sure what all this hype is about... I'm not seeing too much here... And yes, I know, seeing isn't everything. But... the disorganization... yeesh.

look at visible

#148 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:03 pm

Southern carib looks to have potential in two or three days.

#149 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:08 pm

Only time will tell my friends.

<RICKY>

#150 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:11 pm

Finally another NWS office mentions invest 99L!

This is an excerpt from the N.O. NWS discussion late this afternoon:

NEXT WEEK...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER A TROPICAL WAVE
OR CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS SHOWS ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CURRENT SYSTEM NEAR HISPANIOLA
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #151 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:15 pm

It is starting to look impressive to me. Close in visible shows that it is starting to form a weak MLC/LLC elongated from east to west....But the center is around 22.1/71.0...It is moving slowly to the west. Outflow looks to have improved over the last hour or so to the north...The center is just to the west of that new blow of of convection. I think this will develop if current trends keep up.

#152 Postby **Trader Ron** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:24 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It is starting to look impressive to me. Close in visible shows that it is starting to form a weak MLC/LLC elongated from east to west....But the center is around 22.1/71.0...It is moving slowly to the west. Outflow looks to have improved over the last hour or so to the north...The center is just to the west of that new blow of of convection. I think this will develop if current trends keep up.

Moving to the West? Most of the convection is North of the Turks and Caicos Is. Where as it was over the T& C during the day. Seems NW to me.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #153 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:No that post was from earier today.

That is a test as header says AL89 not AL90.

To piggyback on this and it let those who don't know in the loop...

Invest numbers that are a 90-series (90, 91, 92... 99) are active invest numbers and are labelled in order. Since the last invest was 99, this one is 90. The next invest will be 91. The letter afterwards denotes the basin. L=Atlantic, E=EPAC, C=CPAC, W=WPAC, A=Arabian Sea, B=Bay of Bengal, S=SIO, P=SPAC. There are a few other suffixes that are used by regional met offices such as R=Meteo-France La Reunion (SWIO), U=Australia, F=Fiji (SWPAC), etc.

As for the plots that Matt posted earlier, those were for 89L. Any 80-series (80, 81, 82... 89) are nothing other than a test. They have no operational meteorological use.

In those NHC model plots, they'll label test storms as such...
TROPICAL STORM NONAME (AL892005)

Active invest storms are labelled...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005)

Active tropical depressions are labelled...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052005)

Hopefully this helps...

stormandan28 · #154 Postby **stormandan28** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:30 pm

must be weaker the local met said if anything developes it looks like it will stay east of the state.

Website · #155 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:30 pm

5:30 TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA.... THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT... BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.

#156 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:30 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 202130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EMILY... LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 80
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO... OR ABOUT 95 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA.... THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT... BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

#157 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:32 pm

stormandan28 wrote:must be weaker the local met said if anything developes it looks like it will stay east of the state.

What "state" may I ask?

#158 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:50 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
stormandan28 wrote:must be weaker the local met said if anything developes it looks like it will stay east of the state.

What "state" may I ask?

Take a wild guess. lol

<RICKY>

stormandan28 · #159 Postby **stormandan28** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:52 pm

Florida

weatherwindow · #160 Postby **weatherwindow** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:59 pm

synopsis from miami noaa weather radio: disturbance/low into east central florida coast on saturday. although i am sure it was mentioned before ..nws/mia AFD ...nam/eta and gfs develop depression over central bahams on thurs/fri...........................riclh

90L Invest

west end of the High

Re: west end of the High

Re: west end of the High

Florida

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