Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:19 pm

This wave has a big signature with a weak low around 18n although convection is not abundant now because of the Saharan Layer in the eastern Atlantic.It has to be watched as it moves westward where warmer waters and better aloft conditions may allow it to organize.

#2 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:20 pm

You mentioned a possible weak low associated with this wave at about 18N. Doesnt that mean that if it does develop it will more then likely go fishing?

<RICKY>

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:22 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:You mentioned a possible weak low associated with this wave at about 18N. Doesnt that mean that if it does develop it will more then likely go fishing?

<RICKY>

Well I just grabbed the discussion of 8 and it is interesting.

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26N19W 18N22W 6N23W MOVING W
10-15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 18N22W. THE WAVE
IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION THAT REACHES FROM THE
ITCZ NWD TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...BETWEEN COASTAL AFRICA AND 40W.
THE SFC LOW IS LOCATED AT THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION VERY
NEAR THE NE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS SURROUNDED BY A THICK
PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 6 MILES AT
SAL. BROAD S/SW FLOW TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS IS TRANSPORTING
LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NWD OVER W AFRICA...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION WELL INTO WRN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 13W-19W. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SW AND DISSIPATE...BUT THE WAVE
ITSELF WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NWD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAPE VERDES
LATE THU AND FRI.

#4 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:24 pm

One last thing. What exactly does SAL mean?

<RICKY>

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:27 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:One last thing. What exactly does SAL mean?

<RICKY>

Dont worrie about asking many questions.

Sal means SAHARAN AIR LAYER. You want to know more about it? :darrow:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... round.html

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:55 pm

12z GFS has a low just east of the islands and is from wave now off West Africa.

#7 Postby **micktooth** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:05 pm

How reliable is this run this early in the game? Looks like we might not get as long of a break as we thought!

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:08 pm

micktooth wrote:How reliable is this run this early in the game? Looks like we might not get as long of a break as we thought!

It will be easy to see if this model performance will be reliable when subsequent runs come and we will see if they continue with that feature or it is dropped.And also let's see if other models jump on it but so far I haved not seen other globals developing this.

#9 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:20 pm

nice going cycloneye. So quick and reliable at all times. Thanks for answering my question earlier.

<RICKY>

#10 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:30 pm

I think this will be your first TC to deal with in PR Cycloneye. The way this season has started and the GFS has been hinting with this low for a couple of days now it would almost be normal for this season. This storm could also be the east coast of Florida's first real threat IMO.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:36 pm

You can see the big circulation of this wave that covers hunderds of miles at this pic.The weak low is just N of CV Islands.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:56 am

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N22W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W TO 6N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION THAT REACHES
FROM THE ITCZ N TO JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE AREA IS
SURROUNDED BY A THICK PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. WAVE ITSELF HAS A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE
CURVATURE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN W BEHIND THE
WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:34 am

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N22W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW W OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N27W TO 7N26W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION THAT REACHES
FROM THE ITCZ N TO JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE AREA IS
SURROUNDED BY A THICK PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. WAVE ITSELF HAS A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE
CURVATURE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN W BEHIND THE
WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 18W-22W.

8:05 Discussion:

I haved noticed that the low has gone down in latitud from 19n to now 14n this morning.Still looks good with a well defined signature.

caribepr · #14 Postby **caribepr** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:13 am

I noticed that too, Luis, but thought maybe it was my lack of understanding. Is that *normal*? I was liking how high it was!

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:20 am

caribepr wrote:I noticed that too, Luis, but thought maybe it was my lack of understanding. Is that *normal*? I was liking how high it was!

This wave is big I mean big with a huge overall circulation although what most people look for is deep convection and that is not plenty now.It has to be watched as it travels westward because conditions will be better after 40w.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:31 am

Look at the right of this visible pic and see the big overall circulation that this wave has.That gray aspect at pic is the SAL around the Eastern Atlantic.

Tip · #17 Postby **Tip** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:43 am

Looking at the water vapor loops of this feature, it looks to me if this storm started as a cold core system and may evolve into a warm core system?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/34.html

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:20 am

Visible more close of the big wave.

Hyperstorm · #19 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:34 am

The wave is VERY big as you've mentioned and that will likely cause it to be slow to develop. Once the low moves west into the Caribbean, it should start generating some convection, but since it is drawing strong subsidence from the north, developmental chances in the central and eastern Atlantic are basically zero.

Since it is a low of such HIGH-amplitude, it is drawing huge amounts of dry/cool air from the north ahead of it and heavy amounts of moisture behind it. What's impressive about it is that these types of waves serve as a barrier from the dry air for the waves that come right behind them.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:06 am

Hyperstorm wrote:The wave is VERY big as you've mentioned and that will likely cause it to be slow to develop. Once the low moves west into the Caribbean, it should start generating some convection, but since it is drawing strong subsidence from the north, developmental chances in the central and eastern Atlantic are basically zero.

Since it is a low of such HIGH-amplitude, it is drawing huge amounts of dry/cool air from the north ahead of it and heavy amounts of moisture behind it. What's impressive about it is that these types of waves serve as a barrier from the dry air for the waves that come right behind them.

Agree that this wave will open the door for waves behind as less dry air will be in their way.

Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

Who is online