New Futures Market for Where Hurricanes Will Hit

[johngaltfla]

New Futures Market for Where Hurricanes Will Hit

Interesting article, to say the least. I guess there is an anticipation that the next 10 years plus will be quite interesting....

[Cookiely]

You tell em Max!!!
At the National Hurricane Center, Director Max Mayfield wasn't amused.

"If they think they're going to help us forecast hurricanes, I don't see how.'' And the idea that the center uses only three or four models "may be based on misinformation,'' Mayfield said. "We use at least a dozen sophisticated models'' to forecast a storm's intensity, the radius of hurricane-force winds, and other data.

For years, the center's array of storm-related information has been "vitally important'' to emergency response centers along the coastline, Mayfield said.

"You'd think if they're serious, they would have contacted the director of the National Hurricane Center, but nobody's called me,'' he said.

Mayfield had another observation, before turning his attention back to Hurricane Emily, which was barreling toward Texas. "One thing I want to be very clear about,'' he said. "Forecasters are not allowed to dabble in this sort of thing.''

[jlauderdal]

You tell em Max!!!
At the National Hurricane Center, Director Max Mayfield wasn't amused.

"If they think they're going to help us forecast hurricanes, I don't see how.'' And the idea that the center uses only three or four models "may be based on misinformation,'' Mayfield said. "We use at least a dozen sophisticated models'' to forecast a storm's intensity, the radius of hurricane-force winds, and other data.

For years, the center's array of storm-related information has been "vitally important'' to emergency response centers along the coastline, Mayfield said.

"You'd think if they're serious, they would have contacted the director of the National Hurricane Center, but nobody's called me,'' he said.

Mayfield had another observation, before turning his attention back to Hurricane Emily, which was barreling toward Texas. "One thing I want to be very clear about,'' he said. "Forecasters are not allowed to dabble in this sort of thing.''

well according to ortt earlier this week they contacted him, not sure what he told them. now what happens if the futurs market does a better job then nhc which i highly doubt. also, if we start seeing goofy forecasts from nhc we will knwo the fix is in which i also highly doubt will ever happen

[Derek Ortt]

they contacted me becuase my office is about 20 feet from Dave Nolan's

[jlauderdal]

they contacted me becuase my office is about 20 feet from Dave Nolan's

good, can you fill us in on what they said?

[Derek Ortt]

Dave is out of town now.

will ask more details when he gets back

[johngaltfla]

They just discussed this "market" on MSNBC and it was hilarious. They speculated that wouldn't it be "great" if the amateurs and gamblers had better forecasts than the experts.

I guess they don't understand that even a blind squirrel finds an acorn.

I'll pass other than being amused by this market. I'll listen to the experts here anyday, anytime...

[Derek Ortt]

I hope a bunch of clueless morons do play this market.

Just more easy money for me then. I'll buy the securities for a cheap price and sell them for higher

[Agua]

I hope a bunch of clueless morons do play this market.

Just more easy money for me then. I'll buy the securities for a cheap price and sell them for higher

I would think it would be a requirement that any people involved in publishing forecasts could not involve themselves in these markets. You can see the potential for abuse, can't you?

[yzerfan]

Individuals are pretty dumb, but sometimes the herd is surprisingly smart.

In these parts, people move their boats away from docks and marinas and anchor in the bayous when a storm looks like it might be headed this way. (it lessens the chance of damage to the vessel if you anchor properly) And there's a pretty strong correlation between boat count in the bayous and how bad storm ends up being in the area.

The biggest boat count I've ever seen was for Hurricane Ivan. If anyone's familiar with the Destin area, Rocky Bayou looked like Crab Island a couple hours before landfall.

For Dennis, the area was the line in the cone of uncertainty for several days. But the boat count in my local bayous was maybe 1/4 or 1/3 of what it was for Ivan. Dennis ends up being a much, much less damaging storm in the area than Ivan was.

IIRC, Georges was a light boat count storm, even though county officials were concerned enough by the storm to issue mandatory evacuations on the barrier islands. The herd was correct, and Georges ended up going wide left.

[jlauderdal]

I hope a bunch of clueless morons do play this market.

Just more easy money for me then. I'll buy the securities for a cheap price and sell them for higher

I would think it would be a requirement that any people involved in publishing forecasts could not involve themselves in these markets. You can see the potential for abuse, can't you?

pros on wall street are allowed to buy stocks why cant pros bet on the weather. look, this isn't any different than other types of gambling so i see no problem with it. you can bet on almost anything if you look hard enough on the internet.

[Agua]

pros on wall street are allowed to buy stocks why cant pros bet on the weather. look, this isn't any different than other types of gambling so i see no problem with it. you can bet on almost anything if you look hard enough on the internet.

You should be able to figure out the temptation to skew forecasts with an eye towards driving prices down (for purchase) or up (to get out of a bad pick made earlier). That's what Mayfield was getting at about "forecasters shouldn't dabble in that sort of thing".