WTPN22 PGTW 210230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/210222ZJUL05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 137.6E TO 17.7N
135.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 202330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 137.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
137.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED
ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 220230Z.//
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