90L Invest

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #181 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:26 am

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.9 73.6 300./13.0

6 23.0 74.9 310./15.8

12 24.6 75.4 342./17.2

18 25.5 76.5 310./13.4

24 26.2 77.2 315./ 9.6

30 26.9 77.6 334./ 7.7

36 27.5 77.8 341./ 5.4

42 28.1 77.7 1./ 6.2

48 28.6 77.3 38./ 6.9

54 29.3 76.5 52./ 9.3

60 29.7 75.6 63./ 8.9

66 30.3 74.5 63./11.4

72 30.8 73.3 65./11.1

78 31.4 72.1 66./11.6

84 31.6 71.1 79./ 9.3

90 31.7 70.4 81./ 6.1

96 31.8 70.1 58./ 2.8

102 32.1 69.9 36./ 3.5

108 32.5 69.6 42./ 3.9

114 32.7 69.2 58./ 4.6

120 33.1 68.5 61./ 7.0

126 33.6 67.6 62./ 8.3

Anonymous · #182 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:51 am

And another day on the tropical express begins..... :coaster:

jabber · #183 Postby **jabber** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:55 am

Looks like the Miami NWS thinks fishy

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NORTH OF HAITI. ALL MODELS
POINT TO A LOW OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE? FORMING NEAR ANDROS ISLAND
LATER TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES NORTHWEST. THEN THIS LOW MOVES
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL
CHANGE THE FORECAST POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EARLIER THINKING
WAS THAT THE WAVE WOULD COME THROUGH S FLA WHICH WOULD GIVE US
SOME GOOD RAINS. NOW THE POPS MUST BE CUT BACK TO A LOWER CHANCE.
IN ADDITION, MEAN STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK THROUGH THE FRI
TO MON TIME-FRAME WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SEABREEZES TO BE ACTIVE
AND THE ACTIVITY TO BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. WITH PWAT'S BETWEEN
1.70 AND 1.90", POPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO ANYWHERE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY TUE AND WED EAST TO SOUTHEAST MEAN FLOW
RETURNS AND THE SHIFT TO HIGHER POPS WILL BE TO THE WEST SIDE.

#184 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:08 am

12:00z Model Guidance.

chris_fit · #185 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:09 am

cycloneye wrote:

12:00z Model Guidance.

Looks like a flower :-P

DESTRUCTION5 · #186 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:10 am

chris_fit wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

12:00z Model Guidance.

Looks like a flower :-P

GFDL way off n initiation pt?

#187 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:16 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050721 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050721 1200 050722 0000 050722 1200 050723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.5N 74.5W 24.5N 76.1W 25.3N 77.5W 25.9N 78.6W
BAMM 23.5N 74.5W 24.7N 76.4W 25.8N 78.1W 26.7N 78.9W
A98E 23.5N 74.5W 24.8N 76.5W 26.2N 78.2W 28.0N 79.1W
LBAR 23.5N 74.5W 24.8N 76.3W 26.0N 77.8W 26.8N 78.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050723 1200 050724 1200 050725 1200 050726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 79.7W 26.5N 82.1W 26.9N 85.9W 28.1N 89.7W
BAMM 27.3N 79.6W 27.5N 81.2W 27.6N 84.2W 28.2N 87.6W
A98E 29.4N 79.4W 31.2N 80.6W 32.2N 81.4W 32.8N 81.1W
LBAR 27.5N 79.4W 28.6N 80.0W 29.6N 81.5W 31.3N 84.2W
SHIP 38KTS 44KTS 50KTS 52KTS
DSHP 38KTS 32KTS 35KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 74.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 72.4W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 70.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Hyperstorm · #188 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:17 am

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I know I said this on another thread but I wasn't paying attention to thread topics.

But 90L reminds me a LOT of Erin 1995.

It actually reminds me quite a bit of Hurricane Bill in 1997. Based on the satellite signature, it should not take more than 24-36 hours for a LLC to develop...

#189 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:19 am

Hyperstorm wrote:
DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I know I said this on another thread but I wasn't paying attention to thread topics.

But 90L reminds me a LOT of Erin 1995.

It actually reminds me quite a bit of Hurricane Bill in 1997. Based on the satellite signature, it should not take more than 24-36 hours for a LLC to develop...

JB thinks we need to watch both areas for possible development.

chris_fit · #190 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:22 am

Maybe I'm crazy but it's lookin good on IR

#191 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:24 am

chris_fit wrote:Maybe I'm crazy but it's lookin good on IR

You are not crazy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Derek Ortt · #192 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:33 am

GFDL is from 6Z while the others are from 12Z. GFDL is initialized properly

Dont even look at the BAM suite in this instance

jpigott · #193 Postby **jpigott** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:37 am

question - how can any of these models be initialized properly when there is no LLC as of yet

#194 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:38 am

Derek Ortt wrote:GFDL is from 6Z while the others are from 12Z. GFDL is initialized properly

Dont even look at the BAM suite in this instance

So what may I ask is your point? The other models except the GFDL are incorrect?

#195 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:39 am

jpigott wrote:question - how can any of these models be initialized properly when there is no LLC as of yet

That was my next question but you beat me to it. :lol:

#196 Postby **sweetpea** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:41 am

Wow talk about all different directions. The LBAR is right over me. Yesterday they were all south. I will have to pay attention to what is going on. Been a little distracted last few days. Company :roll:

(now gone)

rockyman · #197 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:48 am

This might have already been posted, but, if not...

A new TCFA (tropical cyclone formation alert) has been issued:

Here's the text of the alert:
WTNT02 KNGU 211200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 211130Z JUL 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
050 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.0N6 73.0W0 TO 28.0N0 77.0W4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 210600Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.0N6 73.0W0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221200Z7.//

Here's the website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

#198 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:51 am

Oh well I think we all knew that was coming. Thanks!

Derek Ortt · #199 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:59 am

the BAM suite apply for a barotropic environment. Due to the approaching trough, the environment is baroclinic.

The BAM suite is merely for giggles only in this set-up

wxwatcher91 · #200 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:03 am

here's my 24hour intensity forecast for 90L

5pm: 35mph
11pm: 35mph
5am: 40mph
11am: 45mph
5pm: 50mph

90L Invest

Who is online