Steering flow for bahama disturbance?

[shortwave]

Will it be east to west flow or much more northerly?

[Brent]

Probably somewhere around WNW to NW... across some part of Florida.

[sweetpea]

Local met here in Orlando just said he is a little concerned about this system. But he feels we are going to be just fine. That it won't come into Florida.

[bahamaswx]

Looks like the main area of convection is passing just to the north of me... could have used the rain.

[mf_dolphin]

Actually it look like the center is ESE of you Bahamaswx. There's still hope for some rain for you. The latest visible shot shows a definite LLC.

[jpigott]

i mentioned this in another thread - here in palm beach/martin counties we have thunderstorms tracking east to west - not sure whether or not similar steering currents are over the bahamas disturbance

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 211734
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE...WITH A STRONGER
RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
BY SATURDAY. IN BETWEEN...A HINT OF WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ACROSS FLORIDA
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE COMBINATION
OF WEAK SHEAR OVER THE STATE WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG 78-80
DEGREES WEST WILL KEEP THE BAHAMAS TROPICAL WAVE MORE OR LESS IN
PLACE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL SEE A SUBTLE TRANSITION TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW FRIDAY...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SATURDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SAGS SOUTH. NAM STILL LOOKS
OVERDONE WITH SOUTHWARD PUSH OF RIDGE AXIS. RATHER...EXPECT IT TO
LIE BETWEEN TPA AND MIA ON SATURDAY. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING
LIMITED EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCATTERED PCPN. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST...BUT EDGING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD CLIMO VALUES COMPARED
WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE HEAT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO SURPASS 105 ON SATURDAY NOW THAT GULF TEMPS ARE NEAR WHAT
THEY SHOULD BE (MID-UPPER 80S) THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS (MODERATE DANGER) FOR THE
WEEKEND IN URBAN CENTERS...AND THOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT HIGH IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE KEY...AS LESS
COVERAGE WILL LIMIT OUTFLOWS KEEPING EVENING/NIGHTTIME APPARENT TEMPS
UNCOMFORTABLE.


.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SLIDES EAST IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS RIDGES MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE UPPER PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONE HALF OF FL SAT NIGHT
WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD...PROVIDING WESTERLY FLOW
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWFA THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
POPS ISOLATED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
SHIFTING TO SCATTERED INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS RATHER
UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE FUTURE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT MIDWEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN THE POPS AS NOTED ABOVE. TEMPERATURES
UNIFORM DAY TO DAY AND CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SATURDAY ON.
LONGER RANGES COULD BE AFFECTED BY DEVELOPMENT OF BAHAMAS WAVE...
BUT FAR TOO SOON TO SPECULATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 91 80 91 / 20 30 20 30
FMY 77 93 77 93 / 20 30 20 30
GIF 76 95 76 95 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 77 91 78 91 / 20 30 20 30
BKV 73 93 74 92 / 20 30 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RKR

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

.PUBLIC UPDATE...STRONG ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST...JUST NORTH OF JAX CWA. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SHOULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TODAY OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH
INCREASED COVERAGE TO THE WEST. OVERALL GREATEST COVERAGE WILL EXIST
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION WILL LIKELY OCCUR. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS A GOOD
HANDLE OF ONGOING WEATHER. WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN 1ST PERIOD
FORECAST/REMOVE MORNING WORDING. HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN TOP 100
DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO HEADLINES. SWELL ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS
FLORIDA LEGS...WITH COMBINED SEAS AROUND 3 FEET ACROSS THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE...EXCEPT MORE EASTERLY NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...TODAY THRU SAT...THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BREAK DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE SE REGION AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA
RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...AND POSITION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY PROVIDING LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER INLAND SEABREEZE MERGER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THIS AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKENING
OVER THESE ZONES AND MOISTURE INCREASING. FRI THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS
SHUNTS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SSW TO THE AREA AS WELL AS MORE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRI ACROSS THE BOARD WITH 40% INLAND TO 30% NEAR THE
COAST. SAT THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR GA ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP THE JAX CWA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS
WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED IN THE AFTN BY SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WLY SO AFTN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS DAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA CLIMO VALUES WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND MINS IN THE MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S.

LONG TERM...SUN THRU WED...THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND ALLOWS THE LOW LVL BERMUDA RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL FL.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL TAPER FROM 40-50% THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR
CLIMO VALUES OF 35-40% BY MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AOA CLIMO VALUES
FROM THE LOW-MID 90S TO LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.PREVIOUS MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE
OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL SURGE NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE GA WTRS.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM A DEVELOPING WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINITY IN THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND POSSIBLE
INTENSITY.

&&

$$

ZAPPE