Doubled-Barreled Beauties

[mike18xx]

(The one in the upper-right has a clearly discernable closed circulation. IMO, we'll shortly be looking at a TS and a TD.)

[jlauderdal]

(The one in the upper-right has a clearly discernable closed circulation. IMO, we'll shortly be looking at a TS and a TD.)

its the pam anderson of the tropics

[Stormcenter]

I like the SW Carribean's chances just as much as the Bahama system.

[dixiebreeze]

I like the SW Carribean's chances just as much as the Bahama system.

So do I. The extrapolated plot of the Bahama storm takes it almost through my backyard!

[mike18xx]

IIRC, there are no radars based in the Bahamas.....right?

[HurryKane]

its the pam anderson of the tropics

If so she needs to get her money back, she's a little lopsided.

[Brent]

Siblings!!

[Brent]

its the pam anderson of the tropics

If so she needs to get her money back, she's a little lopsided.

[Steve]

>>Funnily enough, on their current courses, both are quite potentially going to be Florida storms. Even the SW Caribbean one, which is continuing to apparently move almost due north towards Western Cuba/Florida Peninsula.

Don't watch the blow up convection on the eastern side. Look for the point of origin to its west. That system is climbing through Central America toward the Bay of Campeche by sometime this weekend.

Steve

[Normandy]

>>Funnily enough, on their current courses, both are quite potentially going to be Florida storms. Even the SW Caribbean one, which is continuing to apparently move almost due north towards Western Cuba/Florida Peninsula.

Don't watch the blow up convection on the eastern side. Look for the point of origin to its west. That system is climbing through Central America toward the Bay of Campeche by sometime this weekend.

Steve

That convection has been moving straight NNW for the last 30 frames....run it on GOES. Under that convection probably where anything will form, not over an axis heading west into Central America.

[hicksta]

To many storms.

[Steve]

>>That convection has been moving straight NNW for the last 30 frames....run it on GOES. Under that convection probably where anything will form, not over an axis heading west into Central America.

If you're game, I'd bet posting rights for a week that there's NO WAY that's going to happen. You see that with weak systems all the time. That convection will die out and new convection will form again closer to the origin and die out as well. Until the feedback is in place, the shear from the ULL to the W of that system (I've got the center of that on the wetsern Yucatan) will continue to spawn blobs to the east of the origin.

Steve

[Normandy]

>>That convection has been moving straight NNW for the last 30 frames....run it on GOES. Under that convection probably where anything will form, not over an axis heading west into Central America.

If you're game, I'd bet posting rights for a week that there's NO WAY that's going to happen. You see that with weak systems all the time. That convection will die out and new convection will form again closer to the origin and die out as well. Until the feedback is in place, the shear from the ULL to the W of that system (I've got the center of that on the wetsern Yucatan) will continue to spawn blobs to the east of the origin.

Steve

Yes it is also interacting with an ULL...which I was about to say....What do you want to be on....that it ends up in the southern BOC where the ULL is now? The only way this system will form is if it forms some type of circulation center under convection.

[Javlin]

Is it possible Steve though if what you see moves over land and dassipates that what is left over water develops.You know how these systems are when they are weak like this.They will have multiple competing centers.That would be if there is something there now.

[HouTXmetro]

Idunno, I'm starting to see a a rotation under the heavy convection just off the Honduran coast.

[Steve]

>>Yes it is also interacting with an ULL...which I was about to say....What do you want to be on....that it ends up in the southern BOC where the ULL is now?

I would bet that the blob to the east of the origin doesn't form into anything, and in fact dies out as new convection blows up probably this evening or tonight. Ultimately, an inverted trof will appear in the southern Gulf. I guess it's too hard to make an actual bet where we'd have a "This is going to North Carolina" vs. "This is going to Miami" type scenario. But I'm always game for a bet (this one isn't worth a whole week, but a day or so wouldn't hurt).

>>s it possible Steve though if what you see moves over land and dassipates that what is left over water develops.You know how these systems are when they are weak like this.They will have multiple competing centers.That would be if there is something there now.

Absolutely. Usually in that case, it's the mid level spin with a low level center on the western or south western edge of the blob shield. I don't see that setup with this one because I don't even think there's a center down there (ref. "point of origin").

Even still, it'll be a cool system to watch. My guess is that if anything does develop (and that's a big if), it would be a south or central Texas threat based on Emily + a week.

Steve

[HouTXmetro]

Is it possible Steve though if what you see moves over land and dassipates that what is left over water develops.You know how these systems are when they are weak like this.They will have multiple competing centers.That would be if there is something there now.

I agree, just like Cindy reformed. SW carribean convection is starting to arc similar to 90L last night.

[Normandy]

>>Yes it is also interacting with an ULL...which I was about to say....What do you want to be on....that it ends up in the southern BOC where the ULL is now?

I would bet that the blob to the east of the origin doesn't form into anything, and in fact dies out as new convection blows up probably this evening or tonight. Ultimately, an inverted trof will appear in the southern Gulf. I guess it's too hard to make an actual bet where we'd have a "This is going to North Carolina" vs. "This is going to Miami" type scenario. But I'm always game for a bet (this one isn't worth a whole week, but a day or so wouldn't hurt).

Perhaps, but it is also possible that the convection could persist and form something..it has persisted for a nice time now. Even still ts pretty trivial betting on tropical waves....its like a guessing game imo. But sure if you want

[WeatherEmperor]

how about we wait until it develops then we worry about what direction its moving?

<RICKY>

[mike18xx]

Idunno, I'm starting to see a a rotation under the heavy convection just off the Honduran coast.

X-Ray vision?