90L (TS at least IMO) 1st unofficial movement post.

[jax]

But if you listen to the NOAA radio broadcast, it says that this system may have a significant impact on the weather in east central Florida. Stay Tuned.

It's 330 miles east of Miami and squalls extend only 70 miles west of the center. It'll have to move quite a bit west to affect Florida.

Huh? The NHC hasn't even come out with an advisory stating how far the winds extend or whatever. I think this is a little misleading unless you have connections to the NHC.

you were the one that titled your thread "Official"

[jlauderdal]

But if you listen to the NOAA radio broadcast, it says that this system may have a significant impact on the weather in east central Florida. Stay Tuned.

It's 330 miles east of Miami and squalls extend only 70 miles west of the center. It'll have to move quite a bit west to affect Florida.

Huh? The NHC hasn't even come out with an advisory stating how far the winds extend or whatever. I think this is a little misleading unless you have connections to the NHC.

you were the one that titled your thread "Official"

i recommend we take up a collection and send our own recon out there and settle this direction debate once and for all.

[The Big Dog]

Hey, I'll go outside and stick my wet finger in the air if you all think that will help.

[chris_fit]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH
A LOW NEAR 24N75W 1014 MB...MOVING WNW 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS SINCE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR CAT ISLAND. THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING OF STRONG
CONVECTION EVIDENT WITHIN 90-120 NM FROM N-SE QUADRANTS. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL BUT THE SW QUADRANT WHERE WESTERLY
WINDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THAT QUADRANT. DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SE UNITED STATES E ACROSS THE W ATLC
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WNW AND
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS.[/b]

[Stormcenter]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH
A LOW NEAR 24N75W 1014 MB...MOVING WNW 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS SINCE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR CAT ISLAND. THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING OF STRONG
CONVECTION EVIDENT WITHIN 90-120 NM FROM N-SE QUADRANTS. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL BUT THE SW QUADRANT WHERE WESTERLY
WINDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THAT QUADRANT. DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SE UNITED STATES E ACROSS THE W ATLC
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WNW AND
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS.[/b]

Thank you.

[jrod]

What gives? Earlier there was talk of the system going north then northeast, now it seems everybody wants to to change the forecast to WNW or NW. I can't wait till 5 when the NHC will give us the official word.

I am going to have to take a good look at the weather before I make my guess. Pretty much every computer guidence model I have looked at do a poor job of picking this up and none I have seen show it as strong as it is now so I gotta trash them take a chill pill and wait till 5pm. Peace

[jlauderdal]

Hey, I'll go outside and stick my wet finger in the air if you all think that will help.

well the direction thing was out of control for dennis and i think we have already exceeded the posts. do us a favor and go in your backyard and do a special sounding and let us know how that ridge is holding up in Palm Beach County. go buy a helium ballon from the flower dept at publix, go in the backyard wth some binoculars and launch the balloon and take notes every 10 seconds until you cant see it anymore and let us know what you see as far as direction and distance downwind.

[alicia-w]

I think we're getting a little testy again. Be patient. Wait for the official stuff and I'm sure Luis will post it.

[dhweather]

It's pretty obvious there a defined circulation associated with 90L

Looks to be moving WNW to NW


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Rainband]

What gives? Earlier there was talk of the system going north then northeast, now it seems everybody wants to to change the forecast to WNW or NW. I can't wait till 5 when the NHC will give us the official word.

I am going to have to take a good look at the weather before I make my guess. Pretty much every computer guidence model I have looked at do a poor job of picking this up and none I have seen show it as strong as it is now so I gotta trash them take a chill pill and wait till 5pm. Peace

Recon will help. Thats what I am waiting for for right now the NHC says wnw. Thats the only offcial info.

[Agua]

I'm not seeing "WNW", but NHC is the expert, here, so ...

[The Big Dog]

Hey, I'll go outside and stick my wet finger in the air if you all think that will help.

well the direction thing was out of control for dennis and i think we have already exceeded the posts. do us a favor and go in your backyard and do a special sounding and let us know how that ridge is holding up in Palm Beach County. go buy a helium ballon from the flower dept at publix, go in the backyard wth some binoculars and launch the balloon and take notes every 10 seconds until you cant see it anymore and let us know what you see as far as direction and distance downwind.

Yeah, I'll get right on that.

[PTrackerLA]

Pretty sure we're going straight to Franklin with 90L. IMO it looked like a TD had already formed when I woke up this morning and the signature has improved progressively throughout the day. It's a small system and that might be why it has spun up so fast.

[Sanibel]

The center is getting together quickly.


My eye sees near 330* movement.

[dhweather]

I'm not seeing "WNW", but NHC is the expert, here, so ...

It's hard to say, only the last 2-3 frames show the center defined and
moving. That's the worst part of a developing system, the center is
subject to move around.

[dhweather]

The center is getting together quickly.


My eye sees near 330* movement.

I just got another frame in on the floater, and yes it does look much more
North than West. Cant' wait for the next frame to see what's going on!

Of course, recon in the center would work as well.

[Stormcenter]

The center is getting together quickly.


My eye sees near 330* movement.

I just got another frame in on the floater, and yes it does look much more
North than West. Cant' wait for the next frame to see what's going on!

Of course, recon in the center would work as well.

I will stick with WNW until the NHC says it's NW which could be in a few hours if not sooner.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Agua]

ACK! Okay, saw another frame and it's wobbling, so I'm not getting in this wobble crap. Have fun.

[PTrackerLA]

Okay an eye-like feature just appeared at the center of circulation what the heck?!

[Sanibel]

It is possible the storm is in a leftward curving arc towards Florida. Whether that is a Fujiwara reaction or reaction to the ridge I can't say.